One Of The Better Company In One Of The Worse Sector!!!!!!
Founded in 1977 by Vimal Kedia, Manjushree started as a small umbrella manufacturing unit in Guwahati, Assam and thereafter in 1984 forayed into manufacturing of flexible plastic packaging. Manjushree came up with its first IPO in 1995 in order to raise funds for establishing its PET bottle manufacturing unit in Bangalore. Today, Manjushree is the largest converter of PET and Preforms in India with an installed capacity of 80,000 MTPA and caters to the packaging needs of a large section of the FMCG fraternity. Besides PET, Manjushree also manufactures Oxygen Barrier Retortable Multilayer and Stretch Blow Moulded bottles - both of which were brought into India for the first time by Manjushree.
Manjushree has built expertise in all kinds of rigid plastic packaging solutions, including – PET, PP, Multilayer-
barrier containers and PET preforms that utilize European, Japanese and Canadian technologies. In the last year,
it has commissioned two more state of the art Husky System for PET Preforms and four ASB blows moulding machines to manufacture PET bottles for the beverage and bottled water industry.
Products:
1) PET - Jars and Bottles
2) PP (Poly Propelene) - Jars and Bottles
3) Multilayer Barrier Containers
4) Hot Fill PET Bottles
5) Other Moulded Products
Industries Served By Manjushree Technopack:
- Tea & Coffee - Pharmaceuticals - Confectionery - Fruit juices - Aerated Beverages
- Liquor - Sauces & Ketchups - Household cleaners - Pickles - Health Supplements
- Mineral water - Promotional items - Spices
The Packaging Industry is considered to be one of the world’s largest diversified sector and is ranked 9th
amongst the top 10 industry sectors in the world. The total size of the Indian packaging industry is about $25 billion with an annual growth rate of about 13-15% per annum.
Manjushree has forayed into new segments to diversify like liquor, personal care, dairy and edible oils. Companies such as United Spirits, Reckitt Benckiser, Bacardi, Diageo and Big cola for PET bottles and PET Preforms business have been added to the company’s portfolio in the past few quarters.
Find entire list of clients here:
Link: Click Here
According to management, the company stepped up promotional activities in international markets through active participation in various international exhibitions and conferences. The latest manufacturing facility in Bidadi that is set up with an investment of Rs. 150 crore has boosted Manjushree’s current production capacity to 80,000 million tonne per annum. It is a LEEDs certified eco-friednly manufacturing plant with cutting-edge automation and modernization.
Going strong in line with company’s expansion plans, the construction of the fourth unit, which is a green-field project in Harohall Industrial Area in Bangalore is underway and is expected to be completed by March 2014.
Moving beyond FMCG and liquor, Manjushree has made significant inroads into sectors such as dairy, agro-chemicals and specialized pharma segment - nutracenticals.
Moving onto numbers now,
Over the past 5 years, company has been growing at a CAGR of 27.5% in sales, and 26.3% in net profit.
For the first 9 months ending Dec '13,
The Revenues have grown by 22% YoY, and Net Profit has declined by 14% YoY.
The numbers are muted mainly because of higher input cost aided by Rs depreciation.
The good thing is that the exports are growing significantly over last 1 year, and the company is taking steps to improve it further.
In times to come, I think the profits will go back to normal, and sales, on the other side, will continue to impress, hence future looks bright. But that can take its own time.
Major Risks:
The company debt levels are a bit on the higher side, but that is because of the business model of the company, justified by CRISIL below. Finance cost is very high off-late.
According to CRISIL, Manjushree will maintain steady revenue growth, supported by healthy demand from its end-user segments, and its established position in the plastic packaging industry, over the medium term. Manjushree's operating profitability is expected to be sustained at healthy levels of 19-21% over the same period. The company's financial risk profile is also expected to remain adequate, supported by steady cash generation; however its gearing levels, will continue to remain at average levels despite some moderation (from levels of 1.8 times at March 31, 2013), due to continuing partly debt funded capital expenditure (capex) and working capital intensive nature of operations.
My Views:
At CMP of 155, the stock is trading at P/E ratio of 8.7 based on Mar '13 numbers. The ratio is expected to be around 9 after results of Mar '14, as the profitability is expected to be slightly lower than Mar '13. The ratio makes Manjushree much cheaper than its peers. The revenues for FY14 is expected to be around 430 Cr, and profit is expected to be around 22 Cr. Off-late, we have seen good amount of promoter buying also in the counter, which raises hopes of company performing much better in quarters to come.
The company has paid dividends regularly, thought not a very high one.
Do enough research work before making investment in the company, as suggested every time.
Kunal,
ReplyDeleteSimilar Sector comparison
While going through BSE website I found out a Company called Sukhjit Starch which is quoting around Rs.255(FV 10) and products are corn-based. It's a small-cap Company. Would request you to do an analysis vis-a-vis Gulshan Polyols which also manufactures Calcium Carbonate. Let us arrive at a conclusion whether a swap is advisable or Gulshan Polyols is undervalued.
Sukhjit's enterprise value is thrice that of Gulshan Polyols, where as sales are not that much on the higher side. Also, the EPS for both the companies are round about same, as on Mar '13.
ReplyDeleteMargins are also better for Gulshan Polyols.
It doesn't mean that Sukhjit is costly, but is shows that, its not as undervalued as Gulshan Polyols is. :-)
:-D :-D
ReplyDeleteWhat's your current views on Cravatex? Would it be worth to enter at around 250 levels?
ReplyDeleteIt depends on your belief.
ReplyDeleteI could rather help you, when you ask me, whether the company is worth investing or not. The definite answer in case of Cravatex is a big yes.
But the problem is that the current situation is not letting the stock shine, and we are not sure, on when that known problem will get resolved.
The company's business is definitely good, and growing strongly, that too, in one of the most promising industry in future of India.
If you are foreseeing the Rs appreciation someday or if you are a good long term investor, you can definitely buy around 250 or even above that.
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteIts looking very good and even the share holding pattern has increased to 67.09%.
I think it is worth taking. But, one thing I would like to ask is "Will the current election result affect the stock price heavily?...will it matter if BJP comes or Congress comes or if hung govt is formed.?"
Thanks
Anshul
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteHow do you compare this stock with paper products from same sector? Last 5 years sales growth ,OPM & ROE was much better for Manjushree (baring few sluggish recent quarters). Is the low D/E ratio which give better valuation for paper products ?
Thanks
Anshul,
ReplyDeleteFrom the reports I have seen by some financial institutions, it seems that markets would cheer the most, if NDA is able to form a govt this time.
We are yet not sure, whether they will be able to deliver as expected, but at least based on speculations, you can see further upside in markets.
UPA coming to power again, will not make a huge impact on stock markets (though some downside is possible), as their policies are not that bad, and they have some of the very talented people in top management, who are actually working very well.
Formation of hung govt might make a huge impact on stock markets in negative way. Nifty might fall as much as 2000 points from current levels.
These are just my views. :-)
Coming to your question, the business of most of the stocks discussed here, is not going to be affected by election outcome, as almost all of them are non-cyclical stocks. But overall, when market falls, you got to see some downside in each and every stock. Being a long term investor, you should hardly worry about that, as one time downfall, wont affect the fundamentals of the company. They will bounce back some day.
All the best!!!!!
Not tracking Paper Products...
ReplyDeleteWill take a look once and post here..
Hey Kunal, are you still tracking Superhouse? if yes, how do you see its performance in near future? Stock looks like stuck in 90s since few days., no major volumes. Fundamentally looks good, but not aware of any news/updates or any negative points on the same. Could you pls throw some lights on Superhouse? I entered around 105 rs.
ReplyDeleteThanks again.
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteJust look at the total order book position of Gulshan Polyols Ltd. There are buyers for just 1298 shares whereas there are sellers for 45,852 shares !!! What does it indicate?
Yes, I am following but not that deeply.
ReplyDeleteYou see, you have to be very patient while dealing with such small companies, small in terms of enterprise value in markets.
Yes, the results have been very good for Q2 and Q3, but it has already appreciated more than 100% in past 1 year, so the good results have already been accounted, it seems.
The company is expected to continue its good performance because of high exports of leather products. Its about time when we have another trigger, to drive the stock. This is one of the stock, at present, which will not show that much movements on daily basis, but there will be period of 5-10 days, suddenly, which will take the stock to much higher levels. Wait for that period.
I would recommend a hold for now.
As we all know, it normally means, there is some negative sentiment about the stock, but here, we have a different case.
ReplyDeleteThe basic theory can be proven right for stocks that people use for trading, using their technical analysis.
In this case, I feel, the stock was in limelight because of higher vols in past few days. Hence people might think of using this opportunity to trade on this, and they might look to short at higher levels, so that every consolidation after that, can be used to earn profit.
As far as I feel, out of those 45k, atleast 40k would be at a price higher than 90 Rs.
Dont think there is anything to worry about. :-)
But I put a buy order for 15000 shares @ Rs.74 and it started showing buyers for more than 16000 shares !!!! :-D !!!! Obviously, I could understand that for more than 45000 shares' sellers were at a very high rate and didn't mean anything to the market making mechanism !!!!! Of course, I have seen sometimes, event based, entire sellers' quantity is gobbled also and consequently share price shoots up :-D :-D
ReplyDeleteDear Kunal,
ReplyDeleteHave you checked this news on Arrow Coated Products
http://www.pharmabiz.com/NewsDetails.aspx?aid=80994&sid=2
I did check that....
ReplyDeleteStock has also immediately reacted to that. Don't think it will come out of upper circuit till 50-55 levels atleast, looking at pending orders.
Still trading very cheap keeping long term view, in things keep on going right for them.
Few thoughts on Granules:
ReplyDelete1) As per recent new presentation showing % distribution of diff divisions in revenue and ptofit.... EPS will stabilize around 55/- in 1-1.5 years which will be followed by little-muted growth in EPS thereafter for next 2 years or so.
2) Granules was considered as API- commodity like business with low margin as was given low PE, but things are changing now which may rerate PE.
3) It values Auctus, API producer having 120 crore turnover at 120 crore net!!
4) OE team will shift focus to Auctus very shortly.
5) Main thing is mangmnt looks honest.
What do experts here think?
Hi Vivek,
ReplyDeleteThanks for putting this up.
I will add my views a bit here.
You have not considered Granules-Omnichem venture. With the discussion that I had with their management, it seems that they are foreseeing a very bright future for this venture. Initially it will contribute about 50 Cr, but later on, in next 3-4 years, you can expect healthy revenues out of this venture.
As per management, Granules OmniChem is going through validation trials this quarter.
About margins, they are going to improve severely in coming years, because their concentration on finished dosages in going higher and higher, through their JVs and subsidiaries, which is a high margin business.
Granules Biocause will also be a critical factor since it offers supply security for Ibuprofen as the company scale up our Finished Dosage production.
I think EPS should hit 75 levels in next 2-3 years, if all goes well.
Dear Kunal,
ReplyDeleteGranules has a target of 5000 crore revenue by 2017
Do you think they can achieve that?
Sorry for the delayed response, going very busy these days, hardly getting time to sit on my machine... :-(
ReplyDeleteComing to your question, management is still confident of achieving that, but I feel that, it highly depends on the success of their JVs and subsidiaries.
In discussions with management, it seemed that they have very ambitious plans for Omnichem and Biocause JVs.
On the other hand, Krishna Prasad, mentioned they expect to reap a good amount of benefit from Auctus deal, from FY16.
Granules India, itself seems to be growing strongly since the expanded capacity utilization started.
If all goes well, don't think it would too tough to achieve.
Of course, that is not the only milestone, on which, I am banking.
I am more interested to see growth every quarter.
Btw, if they want to achieve 5000 Cr in FY17-18, they will have to grow at CAGR of 46% in sales from FY13-14 where I am expecting the sales around 1100 Cr.
Interestingly, this year, they have grown by 40% in sales for first nine month, where their JVs and subsidiaries have shown negative growth. Think about situation, where they also start performing, and Granules India standalone unit, goes on performing the same way. Is it really unachievable?????? :-)
The big question is how Rs appreciation, if it happens, would affect their chances.....
Sorry for the delayed response, going very busy these days, hardly getting time to sit on my machine... :-(
ReplyDeleteComing to your question, management is still confident of achieving that, but I feel that, it highly depends on the success of their JVs and subsidiaries.
In discussions with management, it seemed that they have very ambitious plans for Omnichem and Biocause JVs.
On the other hand, Krishna Prasad, mentioned they expect to reap a good amount of benefit from Auctus deal, from FY16.
Granules India, itself seems to be growing strongly since the expanded capacity utilization started.
If all goes well, don't think it would too tough to achieve.
Of course, that is not the only milestone, on which, I am banking.
I am more interested to see growth every quarter.
Btw, if they want to achieve 5000 Cr in FY17-18, they will have to grow at CAGR of 46% in sales from FY13-14 where I am expecting the sales around 1100 Cr.
Interestingly, this year, they have grown by 40% in sales for first nine month, where their JVs and subsidiaries have shown negative growth. Think about situation, where they also start performing, and Granules India standalone unit, goes on performing the same way. Is it really unachievable?????? :-)
The big question is how Rs appreciation, if it happens, would affect their chances.....
Few boarders here asked me about Marksans Pharma, 2-3 times earlier, where I mentioned that it should eventually attain its fair value, with market cap around 1000 Cr.
ReplyDeleteIt happened much earlier than expected, as the stock has already crossed 24 levels, and market cap is close to 1000 Cr now.
I would rather suggest book some profit at this point, as now it is fair valued, and would hold remaining shares and wait for results, which might help in further re-rating, if at all it does...
Whats cooking behind the script Dynemic products...suddenly trading at UC with 40k+ volumes since morning...any news in the market that I'm missing?
ReplyDeletePls share your updates, if any?
Thanks,
Mayur
No, we dont have any updates from company.
ReplyDeleteSeems like consolidation phase is over now, which might infuse more buyers to buy at higher price.
Mostly in case of small caps, you can't figure out the basis of daily/weekly movements, because only 1-2 institutional or few healthy retail buyers are enough to move the script in one direction.
We saw that happening with Camlin Fine Sciences also.
So, I feel it hardly makes a difference to follow it on daily basis. Just stay invested, and remain updated if there is any news flow, as you mentioned.
The general trend in markets off-late is to dump stocks that are export oriented, as Rs is on a tremendous rally, closing below 60.5 today...
ReplyDeleteIt has affected the move of few stocks discussed here, but don't think, its time to press the panic button...
The money is moving out from defensives and going into cyclicals, which has created a bit of pressure on stocks...
Its not just the earnings in one scenario that has kept us invested in stocks, but its the strength of business. Hence, the companies with strong business is going to perform its level best, under any macro-economic conditions.
Few stocks that has felt the tremors because of Rs appreciation are Granules India, Ajanta Pharma, Suven Life Sciences, Superhouse to name a few...
On the other hand, some of the stocks, who faced higher input cost on account of Rs depreciation, are now cheering in this stock market rally, on account of forseen changing times after elections, for eg. Cera Sanitaryware, Gulshan Polyols.
Besides this, we also have stocks like Dynemic Products, which is more export oriented, but its undervaluedness is yet to be discovered by many, hence there is further scope for appreciation even in this environment...
The whole idea of putting this point up is just to let you know that I am not making decisions only based on any particular trend in markets, but would stick to our old plan of judging stocks fundamentally, and review their performance quarter after quarter, and be a long term investor.
Hence at this point, won't change views on any of the stocks discussed here.
For now, lets wait for the quarterly numbers that are about to come in about a month's time... :-)
Suven Life secures (2) Product Patents for their NCEs in USA
ReplyDeleteLink: Click Here
Sorry for buzzing u again.
ReplyDeleteSuven already turned out to be a multibagger..do you think still some steam left in it? Another thing is that most of the times I keep hearing news related to patents only..looks like they are specialist in getting patents rights.
Could please share youe views on HSIL - being same business like Cera...I've been investor in it since long 1+ year...nowadays it started showing some movements due to some block deals happened...is it worth to stay invested in it? Hope to see some improvments in glass bizz in near future...your views please, if you track.
Thanks again,
Mayur
Hi Mayur,
ReplyDeleteYou are always invited to put in your views, and ask anything you want to know. I will try my best to help you with that.
About Suven, I had already mentioned that, even after its multibagger returns, there's still a long way to go. Atleast, you can expect healthy returns from here on as well. They have been highly successful in achieving patents of their products in last 1-2 years. These products/chemicals, sooner or later, will start generating good amount of revenues, which will be reflected in their numbers.
The business model of the company is good. They are majorly into CRAMS business, which is a very high margin business. Hence even if Rs recovers, it only will bring their profit growth at moderate levels, unlike what we have been observing in past 3 quarters.
Don't see any harm in investing or remain invested at these levels, if you are ready to face some challenge due to Rs appreciation.
Coming onto HSIL, I can understand that its difficult to digest that the largest sanitaryware manufacturer in India, is trading cheaper than Cera, which is second or third in the list.
But its important to have a look at their growth.
No doubt, HSIL has thrice the sales as that of Cera, but look at how that gap is getting narrower and narrower after every quarter.
In other words, it seems to me, that Cera is eating up the good amount business that HSIL might have had. If you observe the past 1-2 quarters, HSIL has shown decline in sales and for the 3 quarters so far, this year, they have shown flat growth in sales, where as Cera has been able to grow at 35% in sales for the same 3 quarters.
Margins are also higher for Cera than HSIL.
I can think of exactly similar case in plastic industry. Its between Nilkamal and Wimplast. Hope you will be able to relate that.
I personally, don't see HSIL as a multibagger from these levels, unless there is a turnaround in business.
That's my personal opinion. Please take your own decision, according to your conviction. :-)
Manjushree promoters are buying very heavily off-late from open market.... Seems like something good is coming up soon....
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to completion of their 4th unit in Bangalore, which was expected to be completed by March. No updates on that yet.
hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteI came across some good article on Manjushree by some firm called HBJ, see link below. However, they have shown their -ve opinion at the end but the way they have explained the things looks pretty OK. Though, i did not get complete idea about 'Conversion Price Model' mentioned in their blog. You and They mentione dsame thing that Good management but in Wrong sector/segment, then how it could become multibagger...m confused?? Pls share your thoughts.
Thanks again,
Mayur
Hi Mayur,
DeleteI did check the presentation by HBJ Capital. Very nicely presented article.
The biggest challenge in front of companies in this sector is that the price of raw materials keeps on fluctuating. In such cases, following Conversion Price Model is boon for the companies. The company doesn't have to pay for the raw material. It is provided to them by their clients themselves. The company only charges for the actual making of products.
Calculations of earning is easy in this case, as fluctuations of raw material prices is out. Hence it would be better if they are able to find out more and more clients which are ready for this model.
They have very well mentioned about the problems faced by the industry, and hence calling it a bad sector.
Your point on it being a multibagger, I am not sure on that, but atleast I don't think current valuations are justified, especially, looking at their clients and growth of those clients in India. Look at how sales of Coke and Pepsi are growing in India. There are many other such companies in their client list, whose growth in sales is about 20-30% annually.
Looks a good bet to me, but finally, you have to take your decision. Don't transact unless you are fully confident, that is very important. :-)
All the best!!!!
Camlin Fine Sciences has appreciated more than 50% since its posting here:
ReplyDeletehttp://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/02/camlin-fine-sciences-hidden-player-in.html
It might be approaching its fair value, but those with long term view can continue to hold.
Gulshan Polyols hits new 52 weeks high... with good volumes...
ReplyDeleteAny updates totalview? :-)
We are not able to see how many comments are there below post in main page !! Its only visible after clicking the post heading!!
ReplyDeleteGood point.... will try to solve that....
DeleteOr mostly will change the whole site setup...
Still new, so trying different UI..... will finalize one soon... :-)
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteAny updates on Dai-Ichi Karkaria ltd ? Promotor seems to be in a buying spree increasing their stake to 63.74% from 59.60% in just one year!! Despite excellent numbers in recent quarter results stock price didnt move much. I have read in a blog that company has large land bank ( approx 20-25 acres ) in Pune !! Do you think it is worth a bet ???
Thanks
Hi Sarath,
DeleteAs discussed earlier also, it looks a very strong bet, but you should be ready to show some patience.
Like other stocks, who are fundamentally strong, but below 100 Cr market cap, we are never sure on when the stock will start moving. It could take as little time as taken by Arrow Coated Products (Of course, because of some very positive news flow) to move up, or it could take as much time as Photoquip India, which is almost stagnant since last 4 years.
Unlike Photoquip, the good thing about Dai-ichi is that, the company is paying a good dividend every year, that could attract plenty of major investors soon, and hence, mostly, its about time, the stock will take a jump up and reach atleast around 100 levels, with EPS close to 10 for the full year, not considering the extra amount earned in Sep'13 Qtr.
I would suggest you to go for it, if you have patience and confidence in the company.
All the best!!!
Your views on Industrial and Prudential Investment Company? I am not interested in buying its share right now but what they are having with them are gems!! How their business model is?
ReplyDeleteHi Vivek,
DeleteNot tracking Industrial and Prudential Investment Company.
Difficult to judge a company involved only in investments. It seems that all the earnings are dependent on returns of their investments.
If it is so, I won't be a buyer there.
Can Fin Homes has almost reached its given target of 200 Rs here:
ReplyDeletehttp://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2013/06/few-more-multibaggers-for-long-term.html
The company is still looking good fundamentally, even at this rate, but being a company involved in housing finance, its highly prone to government policies.
So, take your decisions wisely and according to your belief.
I would prefer to book 25% profit at this rate, to be on safer side and hold remaining 75%, considering the fact that stock has already appreciated 40-45% from suggested levels.
All the best!!!!
So finally, after lot of struggle, Can Fin Homes managed to hit that magical figure of 200 Rs...
DeleteDo you track Nath Bio Genes? Seems to have lots of potential...
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it deeply, but had a look earlier..
DeleteIt does look interesting, but for me, its too early to predict whether its worth or not at CMP. While collecting data, I didn't find it enough to predict the future of the company...
As mentioned earlier also, I don't mind entering good companies at higher levels also, because, if they are seriously deserving, you will continue to get rewards from your entry point also, year after year...
This move is just to mitigate risk slightly.
On valuation basis, it seems highly undervalued, but too early for me, to recommend any action.
All the best!!!!!
Do you still see value buying Va Tech wabag? Should I wait for more correction?
ReplyDeleteI know this the stock to be a part of core portfolio...and can see mid cap turning into large cap...what says? Again I went through HBJ's article on Va Tech...looks very promising...I missed it at 400 levels now I dont want to miss it? but cant judje its fair valuations.
Your thoughts pls.
-Mayur
Hi Mayur,
DeleteThe stock is definitely good, but again, the sector is slightly doubtful. There is lot of competition world-wide.
It definitely can give you good returns even from these levels, but I have my doubts if it can continue to sustain with similar growth for next few years, because of high competition.
In such cases like Manjushree, will have to dig in more into the orders that they are getting.
Gulshan Polyols on a correction course? Volumes have improved tremendously !!! Now it's trading regularly showing investors' interest on the counter. Meanwhile, shareholding pattern for the last quarter has been published.
ReplyDeleteThanks for that update.
DeleteYes, their holding has increased by 0.08%.
But the way they were going around feb end and march beginning, it seemed like they were hurrying on to completion of 75% acquisition.
Haven't seen much reports after first week of march. It's interesting to read promoters mind here.
If they have stopped buying after stock hit 80 levels, then does that mean promoters are hesitant in buying at higher levels. Do they consider the levels above 80 as high for their company.
On the other hand, it's also possible, that some of their proxies are still active in the market, and they will transfer to promoters later. It's just a break taken by them.
The way they were going aggressively a month ago, I was sensing a chance of delisting on the counter, but that thought is on hold for now.
Lets see how they proceed further.
Talking about stock valuations, yes, it is still, very cheap. The recent price rise, seems mainly because of Rs appreciation.
They were in any case, growing strong in sales year after year, but with Rs appreciating, there is a very high possibility of better margins this time.
EPS should just fall short of 30, which might attract more such investors.