Sunday, November 9, 2014

Tube Investments Of India - A Case Of Interesting Valuations

Founded in 1900, the Murugappa Group is one of India's leading business group. The Group has 28 businesses including 11 listed Companies traded in NSE & BSE. Headquartered in Chennai, the major Companies of the Group include Carborundum Universal Ltd., Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Ltd., Cholamandalam MS General Insurance Company Ltd., Coromandel International Ltd., Coromandel Engineering Company Ltd., E.I.D. Parry (India) Ltd., Parry Agro Industries Ltd., Sabero Organics Ltd., Shanthi Gears Ltd., Tube Investments of India Ltd., and Wendt (India) Ltd.

In 1959, Tube Investments of India (TII) was formed by merging TI Cycles of India and Tube Products of India. TI Diamond Chain was merged with the parent company, in 2004. In 1962, the company saw a potential to leverage its engineering skills to address the market for roll formed metal products. So a new unit called TI Metal Forming was created to realize this potential. TI Diamond Chain was merged with the parent company, in 2004.

In the six decades of its existence, TII has built significant skills in engineering and metallurgy, which is fully supported by a central R&D function. A Total Quality Management approach has ensured a satisfied community of customers and TII is the preferred supplier in all the markets it operates. TII continues the tradition of financial discipline and prudence set by the founding fathers. It is this tradition that has earned TII the unique distinction of uninterrupted dividend distribution since 1954.

Company's Wide & Impressive Divisions:

1) Cycle & Cycle Components:
TI Cycles have introduced fun and entertaining stores across the length and breadth of India. The company has been proactive and was first bicycle company to change the cycle retail landscape, both in urban and rural areas. With the first urban store in 2007, Hercules is sold in over 200 exclusive urban stores known as 'BSA Hercules Exclusive Stores' which have revolutionized the way people buy bicycles in India. These stores are a one-stop premium shop for all Hercules, BSA & Montra products and have a customer friendly ambiance which serves as a model for other bicycle outlets in the country. In 2010, the company started “Hercules BSA Cycles” to provide the urban retail buying experience in smaller towns. In just over a year’s time, there are over 200 of these rural stores. For its retail innovation, the company received the certificate of appreciation for 'Excellence in Rural Retailing' at the ET Retail Awards 2011.
TI Cycles has plants at Chennai, Nasik and Noida, major Warehouses at Guwahati, Durgapur, Patna and Cuttack and regional offices, through which it serves it nationwide 2500 plus dealer network. Certified with ISO 9001:2000, OSHAS 18001-2007 and ISO 14001-2004, TI Cycles is a quality and customer centric organization.

2) Engineering:
Tube Products of India Ltd was established in 1955, in collaboration with Tube Products (Old Bury) Limited-UK, as a measure of backward integration with the bicycles plant.
Today, TPI is the most preferred supplier of precision tubes, Electric Resistance Welded (ERW) and Cold Drawn Welded (CDW), to major automotive companies in India and abroad. TPI is India's undisputed market leader in CDW tubes for the Automotive industry. It also has significant market presence in power plants, boiler, textile machinery, general engineering. It is the Market leader in Telescopic Front Fork Inner tubes and Cylinder bore tubes for shock absorber and gas spring applications, Propeller shaft tubes for Automotive segment. Other Speciality products include Rear Axle Tubes, Side Impact Beams, Tie Rods, Drag links, Heavy thick steering shafts and Hydraulic Cylinder tubes.

3) Metal Formed Products:
Established in 1965, TI Metal Forming is a pioneer and leader in precision value added sheet metal formed components. TIMF manufactures car door frames, window and guide channels, impact beams, hydro-formed parts, frames for various types of motor casings etc., For Railways, TIMF manufactures and supplies roll formed sections for wagons and coaches apart from sub-assemblies of sidewalls, end-walls and roof.

TIDC India – The Complete Chain Company. Incorporated in 1960 in collaboration with the global company from USA, it is now a wholly owned SBU of Tube Investments of India.
TIDCs chains find wide acceptance in variety of applications in the following industrial segments:
-General Engineering
-Construction Equipments
-Agricultural Machinery
-Automotive Industry
-Printing & Packaging
-Process Industries (Cement, Mining, Power)
-Material Handling Industries.

4) Technology:
Corporate technology center works on business driven R&D projects with specific focus in "metal forming", "thermal processing" technologies and the “engineering design” oriented towards products and process simulation and analysis.
TII is a pioneer today in innovating & engineering products for the future with proven expertise in:
   a) Modeling – Products & Processes – with stress analysis (FEA)
   b) Prototyping - Products & Processes
   c) Testing – Mechanical, Endurance, Corrosion and High Strain Rate testing
   d) Investigation – Optical (Micro & Macro structure), Scanning electron microscope, Micro                    hardness and Dye Penetrant test.

Subsidiaries:
1) Chola MS General Insurance Company Ltd
2) Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd
3) Sedis
4) Shanthi Gears

Interesting Valuation Case:
Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company is a listed company in Indian Stock Market, and is trading at a market cap of above 7000 Cr. As per the annual report of FY'14, TII holds 50% stakes in the company.
Apart from that, they have 74% stakes in Chola MS General Insurance Company. The company is not listed in Indian market, but as per the annual report, it is mentioned that company reported about 1855 Cr of Gross Written Premium in FY'14, and a net profit of 70 Cr. It reported 13% growth over last year. Hence can be concluded that it is also a good growth company with strong presence.
Over to minnows, Shanthi Gears is also trading with a market cap of 1000 Cr, where TII has about 70% stakes.

Now, looking at all these data of its subsidiaries only and keeping the core business aside, it seems TII would be a very big company with a very healthy market cap. However, to one's surprise, it is trading with a market cap of only 6000 Cr.
As we come to its standalone business, that is not small either. The company reported 3500 Cr sales last year, with a net profit of close to 100 Cr.

One of the reason for not moving up further might be lower margins that company is operating with. However, that should resolved with time, especially in developing country like India.
The product portfolio of their core business itself is outstanding, and should do well if India reverses its growth cycle, which seems to be happening.
The results of first half of this fiscal has been encouraging.
They have reported 12.4% growth in total income so far, over first six months of FY'14.
Net profit has gone up be 14.4%.
Annual EPS is expected to be around 20 in this fiscal, which makes the stock trading at around PE of 17, which might seem fair to many, right now, but with growing business, aided by its subsidiaries, the EPS should go up to 30 in coming 2 years or so, especially with growth cycle returning to normal.
The data is not the only positive. The management as seen above is highly trustworthy.
They are continuously looking at increasing their product portfolio further with few more engineering products.

All in all, one can conclude this as a company, giving a good case study of valuation, with strong management, and excellent future prospects.

Note:
This should not be considered as recommendation. This was just an interesting story which I wanted to present before all readers.
The decision to go with it or not, depends on reader, and I, by no means, will be able to help readers with that. My views are already presented above.

47 comments:

  1. Holding Companies are normally traded in the market at 50% or even much lesser valuations !!!! Valuations of Shanti Gears & Chola Invest & Finance are already known. Chola MS is the one where value unlocking may take place in future. If someone wants to invests, one has to discount the traded counters at a minimum discount of 50% to arrive at the valuations. Looking at a glance, valuation-wise holding Companies look quite rosy at the time of investment but with the passage of time when the market does not reflect the valuations one gets demoralised and frustrated leading to tired bull-loading ;(

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May be... :)
      I haven't had much of the experience with such companies..
      This is purely a post written based on my simple study, and hence I highlighted the note section in the end, of not taking this as an recommendation, but something to learn from...

      You said, as an investor, people get frustrated and demoralized and finally start selling. However, somewhere I feel, even in these companies, that is where the management and their concerns towards investors comes into picture...

      Being a part of a very well known group is somewhere a big advantage in this company, at east. That is what I feel... :)

      Delete

  2. Please tell your views on the below portfolio?

    1.Sunil Hi tech 2500 quantity @ 144

    2.Mindteck India 5500 quantity @ 80

    3.Gulshan Polyols 1160 quantity @236.

    Please advise on their future potential.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Kuntal,

      As per the regulation, I can't comment on your portfolio actions and allocation...
      I can only say that out of the name you have given, I name positive on Sunil Hi Tech & Gulshan for long term..
      Not tracking Mindteck India...

      Regards.

      Delete
  3. Sunil Hi Tech as a company is going to focus only on margins going forward. They have stopped going after lower margin projects. Also, they will only focus on govt epc contracts.
    Co is targeting to make 100cr PAT by 2017.
    Stock looks attractively valued and seems the only decent play in the infra space whereby profits look clean, order book looks genuine, promoter looks driven and growth outlook is stable.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Do you feel is there some steam left in Dynemic Products? Its continuously going up..results are good but not like spectacular, yes company is growing no doubt.
    M holding it from 33 levels and would like to know can I continue to hold for long term or can take out partial booking? pls advise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know I can't answer such questions now... :)
      However, the answer would be same as I once answered you in case of Granules India, if I remember correctly....
      Regarding your say on results, I think results are excellent, considering their history. They, in past, haven't had much quarters with sales growing above 30% yoy...

      Delete
    2. Thanks Kunal...I can read in between the lines and understood...will continue to hold :)
      just few words of yours boost up my more confidence.

      Delete
  5. Hello Dear Kunal , Are you tracking Finolex Cables ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not strictly tracking Finolex Cables...
      Still, its a big name, with market cap over 3500 Cr....
      As in most of the cases, revival in economy will help company, improve their growth, which was flat for past 3 years or so. However, not sure on how much unlocking of value will happen, even after growth returns to normal..
      Can only help if I have in-depth knowledge of the company, along with information of its peers.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Kunal for the quick reply .

      Delete
  6. Excellent quarterly performance by Flex Foods !!!! Provision for taxation has gone up else the number would have been still better. Expecting a minimum PAT of Rs.15-16 crores meaning an EPS of Rs.12 or more for 2014-15 !!!!! Second half is generally better both on topline and bottomline.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree..
      EBIDTA numbers are superb. Company continues to strengthen themselves on margin front i.e. OPM margins. PAT margins getting affected by higher taxation should not be an issue, and actually, should be taken as a positive, by long term investors.

      Delete
  7. Excellent numbers posted by our new company Control Print also.
    Sales shot up by 20% and net profit jumped by 37%..
    The company should be able to continue posting such results going ahead, as recently they have started new overseas branch in Sri Lanka, and the contribution from that branch also will be helping..

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Kunal

    I am following your scripts and must appreciate you regarding your study and predictions about company

    Can you tell regarding Time techno company

    200 shares @ 49.80

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the appreciation...
      Positive on Time Technoplast for long term...

      Delete
  9. Hi Kunal,

    This is my first post on your blog and I must congratulate for the excellent work that you are doing. Keep it up! :-)

    Off late I have been tracking Arrow Coated Products. Today is the Q2 results. Given that it has recorded good earnings growth, has unique product lines, and vast market, what do you think about its potential in the next 1-2 years time?

    Regards,
    Abhishek

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are talking about business, the potential seems to be huge for coming years..
      However, as far as stock price is concerned, can't comment on it, since we are tracking it from 21 levels, and currently, it is trading around 250...
      So, difficult to answer questions specific to stock price in this counter...

      Delete
  10. Thanks for the reply Kunal. This has already been a multibagger..and it seems to me that its journey is only going to be upward considering the potential..Mega Multibagger in the making.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Substantially improved quarterly performance from Ricoh India !!!

    Top line has gone up by 25% !! Service segment revenue is up by 30% ! What is heartening to note that margins have further improved from 20% to about 25% on service segment.

    Only problem is with working capital requirement and consequently very high finance cost which has gone up from 5.26 crores to 18.56 crores. It's quite understandable since they are well entrenched in Govt sector where payment cycle is quite delayed. However, very dark silver-lining is that parent Ricoh, Japan has subscribed to 7.80% NCDs for Rs.200 crores at the fag-end of September 2014 which will save atleast Rs.4 crores per quarter.

    Service segment revenue is expected to grow still faster keeping in view robust sale of hardwares every quarter albeit at a loss but it should make more than good by way of service revenue.

    Ricoh India is very well poised to achieve, based on present trends, turnover of Rs.3000+ crores on a three year cycle starting from FY2014-15 to FY2016-17 with incremental increase in service segment revenue which is a money-spinner.

    Central Govt's Digital India drive is expected to result in substantially increased business opportunity on long term basis.

    Potential for a real multi-bagger status !!!! Please do your due diligence before taking any investment decision.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
  12. Manjushree Technopack
    Board Meeting on Nov 12, 2014 (To consider voluntary delisting proposal)
    http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Manjushree_Technopack_Ltd_111114.pdf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. they have approved delisting, what would be the effect of it?

      Rohan Maggu

      Delete
  13. Kunal, I too am very much impressed with your picks really wonderful. Though sad that you r not able to advice on buy sell etc...hope u remember me informing you on abase I rule....but I guess u can apply for registration and be back with target to investors like us....earlier you were able to give low figure picks 2 digit like suven camline dynemic products etc which were really wonderful out of which I could buy on DP @ 50...the once again. One more thing coul u shed light on Waterbase results and its long term potential though its not your pick. You may also advice on Cupid rubbers, hsil, SKM eggs, TRF, v2 retail, aimco, Sanghvi movers (specially adviceis it worth holding as it is not moving and shift to any pick?).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I said before, I am doing this activity as my passion and not as profession...
      I am not eligible to get the SEBI certificate..
      If required, I might have to stop this blog itself, but from information that I have, SEBI is fine with a restriction on explicit buy/sell/hold calls to misguide investors...

      Regarding Waterbase, I liked the results. If net profit is going down, only because of higher taxes, I won't mind that much... Same happened with Flex Foods.. But traders are likely to take the stock down for some time because of that. Long term investors have nothing to worry about..

      Apart from that, out of the names you have listed, I like HSIL, V2 Retail..
      Not much idea about other names...

      Delete
  14. Kunal how is majestic auto from manual group

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please let me know if there is something attractive about the company, as I am new to it and haven't heard much about it...

      Delete
  15. Dear Kunal , Please share your valuable views on Cybertech Systems .

    ReplyDelete
  16. Dear Kunal
    I hope you knew that RBI action towards NBFC regarding tightening the norms.Do you think it will affect capri global business? Sorry to dump basic question though I am unable to understand clearly what will be the implication.
    Regards
    CTS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per the timelines given, I don't see any impact in near term..
      In the long run, it will come down to company's efficiency in their collection process..

      Too early to project any direct implications on particular company..

      For details, you can read:
      http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/icra-research-impact-analysis-on-rbi-s-norm-for-nbfcs-114111200018_1.html

      For

      Delete
  17. Dear Kunal,

    I have noticed a company named Suditi Industries in Textile Business. What I impressed most is that their unique way of business Expansion.

    Last year they got Apparel Right in India of FIFA world cup 2014, after the success of that event they have tied up with many prestigious Premier league football Club that includes Real Madrid, Arsenal & Manchester City as well they are in talk with couple of more clubs.

    By doing so they are aiming to find a new market segments as well as create a brand value of their Retail brand named "Riot". They have around 15 retail outlets in India and tied up with many Retail Chains and online stores. If you read their last annual report we can understand that They are expecting 20 to 30% revenue growth in current fiscal year.

    Apart from this I have noticed 75% of the company shares holding by promoters in that around 70% holding by Single promoter.

    And for the dividend side last year they have given 0.50 Rs/Share dividend for 25% public share holders. Promoters hadn't taken any. That is showing management friendly attitude towards the minority retail share holders.

    I wish you have a go through on it and will give your valuable feedback. Thanking you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks... seems interesting.. :)
      Will take a detailed look and revert back..

      Delete
  18. Hi Kunal,

    Sunil Hi tech has posted exceptional results compared on yoy figures in spite of lean season due to monsoon and economic downturn. The debt has also decreased. Please share your view and details about the results and future potential?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As informed earlier, positive on Sunil Hitech..
      It is in my watchlist..

      Delete
  19. Hello Kunal, i would like to know your views on Shriram City Union Finance for a long-term investment ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good for long term investors, looking for steady returns...

      Delete
  20. As expected, Gulshan Polyols declares it's maiden interim dividend of 35% !!!! Top line crosses 100 crores land mark !!!! Top line has gone up both q-o-q and y-o-y by a healthy 25% and 30% respectively. Company provides substantially higher depreciation and increase taxation. Bottom-line is almost flat because of these reasons. However, cost of materials has gone up atleast by 6% q-o-q which is a matter of further investigation. One plausible reason could be old cost of raw-material of corn because of inventory being carried over. It's recommended that we ask this pointed question with the Management. All capex programmes are complete and there is no work in progress. Company carries healthy cash chest of around 45 crores !!! However, best part is healthy interim dividend which indicates confidence of the Management regarding substantially improved working in the second half of FY14-15 !!!!! I feel still more corporate actions may follow in the next six to nine months.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dividend was a big surprise..
      First time, revenues crossed 100 Cr in a quarter...
      Ache din aanewale hai, it seems... :)

      Expecting 400 Cr annual sales this time, with sales expected to increase further in second half of this fiscal, as mentioned in their previous press release...

      Delete
    2. To me it was not a surprise. In fact, I was expecting some corporate actions including dividend :) !!!! In fact, I expect further corporate actions i.e. either split or bonus during the next six to nine months !!! Had a detailed talk with top management during the last AGM and they are quite positive on the operations. I expect next two quarters and FY2015-16 to be substantially better. Scrip is poised for a re-rating in due course of time. Looking forward to bite further if I get an opportunity !!! In a market where valuations are getting stretched one by one, Gulshan Polyols is one such scrip which offers good value buying.

      totalview

      totalview

      Delete
  21. Hi Kunal,

    What are your views now on Acrysil after Q2 results? Also they have acquired Homestyle Products UK for Rs. 27.3 crores. How do u see their debt equity ratio now?

    Regards,
    Pratul

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on business, neutral on current valuations, as it has already appreciated a lot...
      The company should continue to do well, and with the potential they have, I think debt:equity ratio of something just below 1 should not be a big issue..

      Delete
  22. Gulshan Polyols issues a press release for September 2014 results

    :http://www.moneycontrol.com/livefeed_pdf/Nov2014/Gulshan_Polyols_Ltd_151114_Rst.pdf

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Kunal,

    Hope you doing well.

    Could you please share your thoughts on what kind of PE/valuation Gulshan Polyols deserves? Don't you think due to its leadership position in PCC & sorbitol and esteemed client list (which in turn provide revenue visibility ) it deserves higher valuation ? Do you consider it as a typical cyclic chemical play or something which can survive cyclic down turns &compound money for long term.

    Total view, your thoughts also highly appreciated since you are closely tracking it.

    Thank you all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If we consider Pharma, paints, confectionary, footwear as cyclical play yes Gulshan Polyols is a cyclical play. Just remember one thing that there was completion are capex worth 60 crores and it is yet to be reflected in top line and bottom line. First signs of visibility on top line has been seen this quarter. However, that is just a trailer !!! "Puri Picture abhi baaki hain" !!!! Apart, expansion has started at Muzaffarnagar on grain based unit for starch sugar. Game-changer will be distillery unit at Chhindwara, MP work on which is going to start now. It took almost four years to obtain all regulatory approvals and another year may be on project completion. Beauty is that they have already started bottling operations and brand promotion which will be very handy for them once distillery is complete. Right from grain to bottled product in the form of whisky, brandy and rum and that too all branded. Economies of scale and entire profit will be available to Gulshan. Top management is all technocrat and MBAs from institutes of repute. Therefore, don't visualise any issue in project execution. Still debt-light and even FII equity getting infused and paid-up capital being less than Rs.5 crores after infusion, I say highly undervalued counter !!! It can easily trade at a PE of 12-15 on increased PAT. Company will not stop with these projects only. They will definitely take up green-field projects and shall enter into speciality chemical segments which are simply the derivatives of existing raw-material being used i.e.wheat, corn, rice, etc.

      totalview

      Delete
    2. Thanks Total view :)

      Delete