Thursday, November 19, 2015

Updates

Its been long since I posted anything on this blog, primarily due to busy personal schedule. Hearty apologies for that as I too miss readers company on this blog. Some of you have been very helpful in providing me with the valuable details and others have given me motivation to go ahead with this blog, irrespective of any material gains.

Off-late, I have had some free time and hence I thought I would put something on the blog, so that discussion can proceed as earlier, which might enhance our involvement in individual companies with some numerical as well as factual data.

As you all might be aware, the new SEBI rule doesn't allow any individual to recommend a buy/sell/hold call on specific stock or on overall markets, without being registered as Research Analyst certified by SEBI. The rule is definitely for the betterment of common people, and there is no point on being against the rule.
Since I am not a research analyst, nor an investment advisor, I wont be giving any specific call of buy/sell/hold on any company. I am only an investor in Indian Markets and expressing my opinion based on my limited knowledge. My comments on any company should not be taken as recommendation. It will only be my persoanl views. Each reader is requested to do his/her analysis, and consult their financial advisor before taking any decision.

We will only use this blog as a medium to discuss the companies that I or you, think, is having a possible bright future or even just for knowledge purpose.

At the onset, let us revisit all the stocks that have been discussed so far on this blog in present scenario:

1) Ajanta Pharma:
The company continues to outperform, with its sales and profit growth over the years, and last few quarters has not been an exception to that. The stock price has been under pressure for last few months, but that short term behavior hardly matters, when business is growing so well.
The stock has already gone up close to 13 times since we started discussing it, even at current price.
Looking at financials of the company, I am still positive, and with 2 new plants close to commencing operations, I think the growth rate might continue at same pace.
The company's operation efficiency is improving with every quarter. The net profit margins are nowadays close to 25.
Apart from good CAGR in sales and profit, other performance ratios like ROE, ROCE, D/E are also looking great for the company.

2) Granules India:
There has been so much buzz about this company nowadays, that now I dont think, I need to post any details about company's result or other financials, to prove how well, the company is growing.
Almost all the research house are coming up with the positive report on Granules India.
Earlier, there used to be times, when I had to fight many people on this blog to prove that Granules India will be doing good in future with their agrresive expansion plans and improvement in operational effiency. I feel the company has proved me right as far as last few results are concerned; otherwise as you all are aware, nobody can predict the future. :)

3) Ricoh India:
This company is on a dream run, and its performance over past few quarters have justified such a run up. The stock has already gone up by 20 times from the date it was first discussed on this blog.
Still positive on the company's performance in the long run if things go on as expected by management here:
http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/ricoh-india-bets-on-it-services-to-sustain-growth/article7689846.ece
http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/ricoh-india-aims-to-quadruple-revenues-by-end-of-fy17-115042000967_1.html

4) Dewan Housing Finance:
This is still one of my favorite company as far as housing finance names are concerned.
The results have been good over the years, and as I said earlier also, if Prime Minister's vision of Housing For All by 2022, comes true, then this company should benefit.
We started discussing the stock here when it was trading at 158 Rs (unadj), which implies a price of 79 Rs as of today, after 1:1 bonus declared by the company.
In my views, the company should perform well in coming quarters/years, however, one's own conviction is very important in this sector.

5) Can Fin Homes:
When we started discussing this company here, very few people were aware of this name. However, their past growth and quick expansion were too attractive at that time for me to post my views on it. The stock was languishing at price of 140 or so at that time.
However, based on its continuous positive performance, it has caught attention of many investors by now and the stock was accordingly rewarded.
At current price, I would remain neutral on it.

6) Suven Life Sciences:
Fundamentally a good company, but, the it has not been able to deliver as far as results are concerned for past many quarters now. However, management is quite hopeful of resumption of growth from next year. Off-late, they have got plenty of product patents in various countries as well as many of their molecules going for clinical trials in US.
All these should contribute to revenues sooner or later. The company is mostly into high margin CRAMS business, which is why all the ratios based on returns are looking awesome.
If we look at it with a longer term perspective, the company is not very expensive even at these escalated levels. Once growth returns, the P/E should come down considering current market price.

7) Gulshan Polyols:
When we started discussing the stock here, it was a case of sheer undervaluation. The stock was trading around 75 Rs with a P/E of close 2. Generally, those kind of valuations are seen in companies with some or the other fundamental issue like high debt and other. However, that also was not the case with Gulshan Polyols.
Today it is trading aroung 420 Rs, but still, if we consider P/E ratio, it is still close to 10.
Strong set of clients, and introduction into grain base liquor business, still keeps me positive about the company's performance in longer term. Plenty of other details about this company can be found by using Search functionality on this blog.

8) Cera Sanitaryware:
Close to 4 times from the day we started discussing it, but still, has fallen almost 40% from its high in recent times on the back of assumptions that the company is not able to grow as expected. The minor hiccups on the upside and downside, are part and parcel of life for any country or company for that matter. So is the case with Cera. Off-late, they have not posted growth as it used to post earlier, and also the management has reduced the growth guidance for FY16 from 25% earlier to 20% now.
Even with the modest growth right now, the company is able to grow in all segments which is good to see. The company has recently entered into a joint venture agreement with Anjani Tiles for setting up a plant to manufacture high-quality ceramic vertified tiles, in Andhra Pradesh. The company  has also decided to open offices in Dubai in order to increase exports to West Asian countries.
Overall, I still feel there is plenty of scope for the company to grow at a pace it was growing earlier, and with increased government initiaitves for Swatch Bharat, it seems possible in future.

9) Camlin Fine Sciences:
Nothing more to add as of now, from the earlier discussion that we had on this counter. It has already grown close to 10 times from the day, we started discussion here. One can rely on his/her analysis here, by referring to the facts on this blog, if required.

10) TCPL Packaging:
This company certainly has delivered much more than what I expected of it, in the original post. The results have been above expectations in past 2-3 quarters. The execution is also improving which can be seen through improved margins for the company. The net margins are above 6 now, from 2-3 levels in 2014. It seems the company is likely to sustain those margin levels and accordingly the stock has been rewarded.
The stock is already 6 times since we started discussing here.

11) Steel Strip Wheels:
We started discussion on this when it was trading around 290 levels. The stock has not got appreciated a lot from there, however, in terms of performance, I feel there is tremendous growth potential is this company. They have been receiving plenty of orders, and on top of it, the execution has improved, which is reflected in net profit growth every quarter. The net profit growth has been in the range from 50%-200% yoy for the past 4 quarters, which is very good to see.
The promoters are also aggressively buying in this counter as of now.
Hoping to see even better results in coming quarters.

12) Control Print:
Again, not much to add as of now from our earlier discussion. It has appreciated a lot in recent past, because of consistently good numbers. Management is also very good. Already we have seen dividend coming twice this year, and on top of it, recently, the management has declared Bonus share in the ratio of 1:2. Good to see the management of such a small company looking to share the profits.

13) Somany Ceramics:
Views same as for Cera Sanitaryware

14) Garware Wall Ropes:
Another company like TCPL Packaging which has surprised one and all, with its performance in terms of sales as well as profits.
I am still positive about their business prospectus. Here are some of the links which enforces me to think so:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/garwarewall-ropes-bets-big-on-protected-farming-aquaculture/article7444111.ece
http://www.financialexpress.com/article/companies/garware-wall-ropes-conferred-with-the-top-exporter-award-by-the-plastics-export-promotion-council/153540/
http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/garware-wall-ropes-eyes-rs-1000-crore-business-by-2017-115061500585_1.html


It can be assumed that I have either stopped tracking or not deeply into the names which might have been discussed earlier on this blog, but is not seen in the list above.

Currently, the stocks I am studying are PI Ind, Talwalker Better Value Fitness, Indo Count Ind, Patel Airtemps, FIEM Ind and Lincoln Pharma.

I repeat, the above mentioned details, are just my views on the specific companies, and they by no means, imply any sort of recommendation of buy/sell/hold.
Each reader has to take their own decision by analyzing themselves or by consulting a private financial advisor.
 

85 comments:

  1. Hey Kunal - Welcome Back after long gap. Happy to see you on board again.
    Please keep updated your views on diff stocks and keep posting your analysis here without putting Buy/sell keywords...hope u got my point.
    m really happy to see u back :)

    Thanks again.
    Mayur

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello Kunal - Welcome Back. Waiting for new updates from you. Meanwhile what is your current view on your earlier recomended stock Swiss Glascoat?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not too much into it off-late, but looking at results, it seems there is too much volatility every quarter...
      Somewhere, it is getting difficult to predict their growth in business..
      However, the good thing is that management has been good. The dividend yield has been superb and increasing over the years..

      Delete
  3. Which are the stocks you feel are at same position where ajanta or granules were 2 year back?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In terms of performance in coming years, all stocks mentioned above have that potential, including names that I am studying..
      However, if you are asking about price, that is not in my hands, and now, I am not even authorized to guide you in that respect... :-)
      Take your own call... All the best!!!!

      Delete
  4. Hi,
    It is refreshing to see you back . I kept returning to the blog every now and then, and the wish is fulfilled. It is quite a great relief and reassurance for small fry, I.e., us.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Garware greatly consolidating around 350...do you think still steam left in it and long way to go? I missed it earlier n noe planning to consider it for long term...
    Mayur

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As far as numbers are concerned, I feel company should continue to post strong numbers, especially with increasing exports..
      As you know, I can't predict anything on price front..

      Delete
  6. Hi Kunal,

    Welcome back !!!!

    I would like to go with Ricoh India and Gulshan Polyols !!!! FY16-17 will belong to these stocks.

    Shall contribute more if you do so :)

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Quite possible totalview..

      Thanks for contributing as always..

      Delete
  7. Hi Kunal,

    Something fresh and latest from Ricoh India. All I can say is that big developments are taking place and it will get reflected in the bottom-line in the second half.

    Ricoh India changed the statutory auditors after more than 10 years in keeping with the principles of high corporate governance and BSR & Co. (one in top 5 of India) have been appointed Statutory Auditory after conclusion of AGM on 28th September 2015. Hence the second quarter results have been delayed. This gave an opportunity to buy in correction. Quarterly results are expected next week. If the results are as per market expectations it will shoot up atleast to recover the recent correction from 890/900 to 835. Technically all consolidation seems to be over.

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/vakrangee-announces-strategic-alliance-with-ricoh-india-115112100774_1.html

    https://ricoh.co.in/about/news/2015/RicohIndiaPressRelease-CamerasLaunch.aspx

    Both are week-end developments !!!

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even before results Ricoh India shot up to 910 amidst very good volumes !!!!

      Value of contract between Ricoh India and Vakrangee is Rs.400 crores spread over a period of 5 years. Very healthy deal. Understand many more such deals are in the pipeline.

      totalview

      Delete
  8. Hi Kunal,

    Study quickly Patels Airtemp :)

    An excellent capital goods bet and has performed even in lean period.

    Very reasonable valuations !!

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Kunal,

    This is the latest on Ricoh India.http://tech.firstpost.com/news-analysis/ricoh-theta-s-360-degree-camera-with-dual-12mp-sensors-launched-at-rs-39995-288429.html

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Kunal,

    This is a must read for all those willing to enter Ricoh India or holding and further willing to accumulate. It's official and just could land on it today only in a bid to post here. Although I have gone through the interview earlier. But the beauty is that on the official website in the newsletter whole gist of interview is given.

    https://ricoh.co.in/mailers/10-2015/pdf/ConnectOct15MDinterviewETNow.pdf

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
  11. Kunal, Nice to see you after Long time and Welcome back. Hope Good Days once again started and sharing your knowledge/Input would greatly help every one for Mutual Benefits. Rgds Raj, Chennai-83

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi All,,

    Hotel stocks may make this winter a little more warmer !!! Merger/acquisitions, buy outs may catch up in view of medium to long term prospects being good for Indian economy. Passing of the GST Bill as and when it happens will also be positive for the Hotel Sector. It's believed that grant of Infrastructure status to Hotel Sector will be on the platter sooner than later. Substantial quantity of excess inventory has already been absorbed in the market. Further, very few green field projects are being announced for quite some time.

    In totality, hotel sector may see "achche Din" in FY2016-17 !!!

    Choose your stocks which are debt-light and asset-light instead of big brands !!!

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So any hotel stock you are currently tracking or invested, totalview?

      Delete
    2. I like and track Royal Orchid Hotels, 135 cr market cap Bangaluru based Hotel Chain whose market valuation is around 600/700 crores. It's very debt-light and asset-light model with excellent professional management. They have rewarded shareholders very well in the past when the going was good in the Hotel Sector.

      totalview

      Delete
    3. And Royal Orchid Hotels traded at a new 52-weeks' high of Rs.62.90 with robust volumes of more than 2 lac shares and delivery volumes being 87K.

      Entire Company is available at a market cap of just 160 crores as against market valuations of around 700 crores with a mix of owned, subsidiary, JV and managed hotel chain of 30 hotels and 7 in the pipeline (to be launched in next three months). Out of these two are at Tanzania and Kenya and one more coming up. Debts are at negligible level of just 90 crores and once Mumbai land (Amartara subsidiary) is sold out entire Company will be virtually debt-free.

      ROHL may return to dividend list this year. In the past Company has a track record of repeatedly paying 60% dividend.

      totalview

      Delete
    4. Do you see growth in excess of 10% coming anytime soon?

      Delete
    5. A 10% revenue growth will be acceptable for FY15-16. Around 5% will percolate down to the bottom-line. However, 2016-17 is likely to be better. ROHL particularly is in sweet spot . They have more than 2500 keys and addition of 7 more hotels under management contract will add to sweetness. On standalone basis they have a debt burden of below Rs.40 crores and once deal of Mumbai land parcel is done ROHL on standalone basis will be a debt-free company. In the last nine/ten years there is no equity dilution inspite of facing the worst in the last five years.

      totalview

      Delete
    6. Hi Kunal,

      Chander Baljee appears on CNBC after a gap of 4/5 years. Link to his brief interview

      http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/expect-margins-to-improve-royal-orchid-hotels_4459141.html

      He is quite positve on the sector. Occupancy has improved and so has efficiency.

      totalview

      Delete
    7. Royal Orchid Hotels is being accumulated by value and long-term investors gradually.

      totalview

      Delete
  13. Thanks for your update.We really appreciate your effort.Thanks again for guiding us

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hey Kunal, so when are you coming back with write up on the stocks that your mentioned in abobe updates. Eagerly waiting for it. Can we expect any one in this weekend?

    Mayur

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mayur, I still dont have enough clarification on SEBI policy....
      Till then, its better, I dont write a separate post on any individual stocks..

      The names that are mentioned are more or less looking good to me..

      Delete
    2. yeah i understand..but mentioning only names will not help readers like me....m not askin about ur recommendations or views just seeking ur analysis and info which you are good doing it...finally its individual calls what to do with stocks..hope u getting me.
      mayur

      Delete
  15. Hey Kunal nice to see you after your earlier post of closing the blog. Positive on coming times for new ideas. Only a quick question just to know your take on Sunil Health Care Limited and Godrej Properties Limited. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In terms of performance, I think there are many better players than Sunil Healthcare at the moment..
      Godrej Properties is one of the better companies in its sector....

      Delete
  16. Hi Kunal, please to see you back. If possible do review Sarla Performance Fibres - it is polyester yarn manufacturer with some good embedded triggers lined up over next 2 years in form of capacity expansion and margin expansion. It already has highest operating profit margin in polyester yarn space in India. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sales has shown de-growth in past 3 quarters.
      Profits have increased because of lower crude prices...
      Need to figure out if growth in past years, is sustainable for coming few years...

      However, there were some positive comments in concall, you can refer that...

      Delete
  17. Hi ur view on Aksh Optifibre? business shows improving and can it benifit from digital india?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Kunal/ Totalview,
    Are you tacking E-land apparel (mudra lifestyle)? looks like can turnaround in future...your expert views pls?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One can consider as a long term pick but no fireworks likely now. Should be considered with a three year horizon !

      totalview

      Delete
  19. Welcome Back Wealth Creator Kunal Bunker.... thnx a lot for listening our demand of starting blog again .. Now we can have few good picks from you... According SEBI Rule you can share your view about Any company .. provide no buy/ sell/hold is mention in it....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Arvind...
      But dont use such words like Wealth Creator and all...
      I dont deserve that, atleast at present.. :)

      Delete
  20. Hi Kunal, Really nice to see you back. It is diwali gift for readers like me. Keep writing.
    Best regards,
    jaskirat

    ReplyDelete
  21. Kunak, nice to have you back. The last stock you discussed on the blog before you went on a recess, was Gujarat Foils. This is still testing our patience. It has further come down from the price it w first discussed. Would be grateful if you can give your fresh perspective on this stock. Vishwanath

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please read the comment section of that post...
      Plenty of negatives were mentioned which can act as barrier..

      There is huge description given by totalview in the comments, about what are the negatives about the company..
      Please study those..

      Delete
  22. Hi Kunal, Nice to see you after while , Welcome back

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi, ur view on DCM shriram ltd and porwal auto?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking DCM Shriram..
      In Auto Ancilliary space, I think there are better performing companies than Porwal Auto is, at this moment...

      Delete
  24. Patels airtemp - They have target to achieve around 140 cr of revenue for FY16. Also have ambitious target of 200 cr for FY17. But order inflows are little slow. is this because of sector slowdown? But management looks confident as they bough shares around 140 from open market lastly. Any updates/thoughts to add here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The guidance seems quite possible..
      Yes, the order inflows have been slow because of the sector...
      Frankly speaking, the current situation is not as good as it is seen through various macro economic numbers..
      I have had discussion with people from manufacturing sector, and they are not much positive about current situation..
      However, things could change later..

      Still, even after considering those factors, I dont think the targets are too ambitious looking at their performance in FY'15 and first half of FY'16...

      Let's hope for the best!!!

      Delete
  25. Gulshan Polyols is one Company which warrants serious attention. Scrip is hovering around 400 for quite some time. Capex programme amounting to Rs.125 crores consisting of 1 lac tonne PA corn processing facility at Muzaffarnagar and 50KLPD ENA again a grain based unit at Chhindwara will get commissioned around March 2016. Both projects are being completed entirely with internal cash accruals. No doubt Company has taken a Foreign Currency Loan of Rs.75 crores at very competitive rates of around 7% including hedging cost but this will form part of Bank Balance. Once new facilities get commissioned top line will shoot up and 2016-17 and 2017-18 will see turnover crossing Rs.800 crores.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Delivering to an extent today... :)

      Delete
    2. Gulshan Polyols traded upto 480 today and closed around 464 with moderate to good volumes. Now it's trying to enter new territory backed by positive developments.

      It's a secular long term story and warrants long term outlook. Best is yet to come. In the coming months there will be more positive developments on the counter which will keep on driving the counter.

      http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=59f1d21e-7d49-472d-9010-8b7ae82b0417

      totalview

      Delete
  26. Good to see you back buddy! Congratulations on the half yr! :)
    Invested in Granules and Camlin though missed the boat on Ajanta...

    - Sudeep

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are welcome!

      BTW, forgot to add, am also invested in PhotoQuip :) I see that you are not following this one anymore. Any thoughts on this company?

      With Lincoln Pharma up 12-13% today, is there more steam left in Pharma sector? say the Morepens and Marksans of the world..?


      -Sudeep

      Delete
    2. Hi Sudeep,

      As you said, I have stopped tracking the company, as the management didn't turn out as expected, and they themselves are responsible for the state of company now, as far as what I can understand.

      They had a huge opportunity of creating something really big, but it seems they didn't quite capitalize on it.

      As far as pharma sector is concerned, I feel there will always be a steam left if you are selective. Also with devaluation of Rs, they are in even sweeter spot now.. But one has to be selective..

      Regards.

      Delete
    3. Hi Sudeep/Kunal

      There is a dim hope that things may improve hereinafter gradually on Photoquip front. They have already gone back to their core business.'Photographic flash lights, etc. have always been profitable to the Co.

      It's likely that Management will dispose of Corvi-light division on 28th December Board Meeting.

      I had a talk with top Management and they desired that they want to come on dividend list soonest.

      I also visited their Mumbai factory which is an excellent facility on more than 10,000 sq ft Company owned land right in the middle of Mumbai at Antop Hill with state of the art features.

      In the meantime, Photoquip attracted very good volumes of trading yesterday and share was locked at Upper Circuit at Rs.24.60.

      Let us watch further developments.

      totalview

      Delete
  27. Hi Kunal, Your views on lincoln pharma?

    Regards,
    Venu.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Already mentioned earlier that I like all the companies mentioned in above post which were not discussed earlier.
      Though one has to note, that Lincoln has appreciated a lot in recent past....

      Delete
  28. Hi Kunal ji, Thanks for your reply. your view on Subex. Looks like the company is turning around in this financial year.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi, ur view on Compucom Software?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As such, it is always difficult to predict growth of IT companies, and even in that, if you select a micro cap company, with less than 100 Cr revenues, it becomes even tougher...

      Growth prospectus of Zensar Tech in IT is looking good to me...

      Delete
  30. Replies
    1. Not tracking Infinite Computer as of now...
      Only tracking Zensar Tech from the sector..

      Delete
  31. Sir Any Views on Kanoria Chemicals & Infinite Computers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking Kanoria..
      Totalview was tracking it earlier, not sure as of now...

      Delete
    2. not on my radar now !

      totalview

      Delete
  32. knaul bhai missed ur guidance lot.thanq ur back.
    i feel it was a very nice break u took.

    keep rocking !

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi, ur view on Valiant communication?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hi Kunal welcome back......missed your valuable picks😔......can I have your views on SKM Eggs for long term

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hi Kunal,

    Please have a look into Sankhya Infotech and let me have your views. Website gives quite interesting reading.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's true, but it is utmost difficult to predict growth of such a small IT Company, especially with the amount of competitors around and new ones coming up everyday...

      Delete
    2. Hi Kunal,

      Agree that it's a small outfit operating for the last 18 years. But I find that in the last five years their topline has been moving up seamlessly. From 50 crs in 2011 to 180 crores in 2015 is a good CAGR growth. More, they are into Aerospace and Defense where things are happening. Leaving aside it's small status, I would request you to please comment upon their business and likely scalability.

      Thanks

      totalview

      Delete
    3. Ricoh India is good signals on it's business growth and likely nos for 2015-16. First half of FY2015-16 is likely to have churned out 1000+ crs sales. What is pleasantly surprising, second half FY2015-16 may produce topeline of around 2000 crs. And once it happens market may give real thumbs up with both hands.

      totalview

      Delete
    4. When is the Q2 numbers coming out?

      Delete
    5. First week of January 2016 likely.

      totalview

      Delete
  36. Dear Total view, I think time up for photoquip to unlock the value. Appreciate your patiance since long in photoquip. Sure conviction and patiance are the key factors for the sucess in stock market. Btw I Guess you are the top public holder in photoquip with 2.38% shares.

    ReplyDelete