Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Granules India - Q3 Result Updates

Financial Results with Results Press Release & Limited Review for Dec 31, 2013
Link: Click Here

As expected, strong set of numbers delivered by Granules India, with a huge growth in net profit, which was the reason for stock reaching these 52 weeks high levels and sustaining there.

On Standalone basis,
Revenues stands at 262 Cr Vs 173 Cr YoY, which is a growth of 50.5%.
Net Profit stands at 23 Cr Vs 5.4 Cr YoY, which is a growth of almost 325%.
EPS for the first time, goes above 10, and is precisely at 11.39.

On Consolidated basis,
Revenues stands at 284 Cr Vs 195 Cr YoY, which is a growth of 46%.
Net Profit stands at 21.8 Cr Vs 5.8 Cr YoY, which is a growth of almost 275%.
EPS works out to be 10.8.

So far this year, the company has reported sales of 778 Cr. Looking at this number, and with good expectation in coming quarter as well, I expect the company to post annual sales of close to 1090 Cr for the full year, which will be above their target of 1000 Cr. In terms of profit, I expect it to be somewhere around 75 Cr, which again, would be way above their expectations.
EPS for the full year will be around 36, which means, at current market price of aout 220 Rs, it is trading at a P/E multiple of 6.

Looking at numbers, its tough to see that consolidated numbers are slightly sub-dued when compared with standalone numbers in terms of growth and margins. But Granules, being a company which is generating 90% of its revenues from standalone unit only, the performance of subsidiaries hardly matters, as of now. It will take some time for subsidiaries to perform well, and contribute to increasing sales and profit figures.

The company still needs to focus on improving margins. Even with huge growth in net profit, they are still lagging when it comes to net profit margins, as compared to their peers. So I am expecting further such growths in net profit going ahead. If that happens, there will be a huge re-rating on the counter. If you check the numbers of Ajanta Pharma, you will find that they are having similar sales figure, but net profit of Ajanta is 3 times the net profit of Granules, this quarter. It used to be around 5-6 times that of Granules earlier. Now that Granules has started posting good net profit, it is going in right direction.

My Views:
Most of things are clear from stats that I mentioned above, and I, because of that, continue to be very positive on the stock with a longer term view. With result just announced, and with highly volatile market conditions, you can expect the stock to trade violently on either side for few days. But those who are seriously long term investors, can invest around any levels from 200-250, and hold it, till it becomes a 5000 Cr revenue generating organization as promised by management, someday. :-)
Obviously, we wont do that blindly. We will stay updated with every news about the company and our actions will follow accordingly.

GRANULES INDIA - Redefining Partnership

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDSX9SvcWdQ

Ajanta Pharma - Q3 Result Updates

Financial Results & Results Press Release for Dec 31, 2013
Link: Click Here


Another strong set of numbers from Ajanta Pharma. The company has been consistently doing well over last few quarters, and now it seems they have made a habit of declaring net profit growth of more than 50% YoY.

Revenues stands at 301 Cr from 229 Cr last year, which means a growth of 31% in sales.
Net Profit stands at 62 Cr from 33 Cr last year, which means a growth of 92% in profits.
EPS stands at 17.75 for this quarter.
Exports contributed to 65% of their total sales.

The company is looking good to post an annual revenues of close to 1130 Cr, a growth of 35-40% over last year.
Full year EPS is expected to be around 60, which means, company, right now is trading at a P/E of 15.

The company continues to increase their R&D expense, which is encouraging.
R&D expense stands at 39 Cr against 28 Cr last year.
It also continues to file more and more ANDA with US FDA. This year, they have already filed 8 ANDA, with 4 of them in this quarter itself. The total stands at 22, out of which 20 are pending for Approval.
In this quarter, Company has filed 109 product registration dossiers in emerging markets. They already have over 1400 product registrations, and around 1380 product under registration process.

One of the major highlight was their growth in domestic markets.
They generated 98 Cr from domestic markets this quarter, a growth of 38% YoY.
As per IMS MAT Dec 2013, Ajanta has improved its overall ranking to 40th rank in Indian Pharmaceutical Market.
Company has launched 8 more products this quarter, hence making a total of 19 in FY14 so far.

My Views:
The growth story so far, has been excellent. But many investors are now asking whether such growth is sustainable or not. I am still positive, but now, only with an intention to get good returns over my investment. Multi-bagger returns from here on looks slightly difficult. The company already has a market capitalization of 3200 Cr, which is slightly higher as of now, but it can prove to be less, if growth continues in same fashion going ahead.
The gain of 300% last year, was a big surprise, but with strong results coming every quarter, the company certainly has not failed in justifying the price rise so far.
I am still awaiting a word on their 2 new plants in Gujarat.
I would recommend a partial profit booking around 1000 for those who are invested since last 1 year, as it is always a good idea, to book some profits time and again, even if company is continuously performing well. Hold on to rest of the quantity, with a hope that new products will continue to bring more revenues for the company, and initiation of 2 new plants, will add to that.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Dewan Housing - Q3 Result Updates

Financial Results & Limited Review for Dec 31, 2013
Link: Click Here

Board declares Interim Dividend:
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 20, 2014, inter alia, have declared an interim dividend for the financial year 2013-2014 of Rs. 3/- per share i.e. 30% on equity shares of Rs. 10/- each fully paid up.

See 20-22% growth rate going ahead: Kapil Wadhawan, Dewan Housing
Link: Click Here

So, we kick off the earning season for the quarter starting wih Dewan Housing.
Strong set of numbers declared by the company, especially, when we compare it with Gruh Finance, that declared its numbers last thursday.
Revenues stood at 1301 Cr from 840 Cr in same quarter last year, a growth of 55%.
Net Profit stood at 138.39 Cr from 91.24 Cr last year, a growth of 52%.
Housing Loan sanctioned amounted to 5938.55 Cr from 3922.13 Cr last year, a growth of 51%.
Disbursements went up to 4030.23 Cr as against 2983.32 Cr, showing a growth of 35%.
For Gruh Finance, the growth in above terms were 31%, 25%, 31% and 22% respectively.

The tier two and tier three markets still continue to be extremely strong for DHFL and continue to give out consistent margins. So the company is on track after the completion of nine months, in terms of overall earnings for the entire financial year.

My Views:
Based on the numbers, the stock continues to look cheaper even at current market price of 215 Rs. But, as you know, the biggest challenge is the sector, in which it is operating. Every RBI policy on interest rates, will have an impact on the stock price, no matter what the fundamentals of the company are. Hence, one has to be very careful while making an entry in such stocks. He/She has to be ready, to accept the risk, if there is any downfall because of certain government policy.
The stock was suggested in June 13, and the target given was 250 Rs.
http://fundamentalstockideas.in/few-more-multibaggers-for-long-term/
For now, I stick to that target, because we are not sure on what sort of policies are going to be implemented tomorrow.
Recommending a hold for those who already bought, and would advice new entrants to understand the risk well before making any investments now, as it has appreciated more than 100% since Sept 12. With a P/E ratio of 5.22, book value of 252 Rs per share, and market cap of 2749 Cr, I feel it is slightly under-valued.
Rest is ones own decision. :-)