Thursday, May 22, 2014

Q4 Result Updates - Dhanuka, Plastiblends, Manjushree and Suven

1) Dhanuka Agritech:

The company lived up to their expectations of achieving 750 Cr sales in FY'14, which was expressed earlier by the management, if I remember correctly. They only fell short by some 10 Cr, which is acceptable.
26% growth in sales and 45% growth in net profit, is highly appreciable for the full year, considering the fact  that the major jump in revenues comes in Sept Qtr only.
The full year ended with the EPS of close to 19, which makes the P/E ratio stand at 16.
Most of undervaluation in the stock is now erased, as far as I feel.
Now its about the performance in coming quarters, and coming years.
Lots of mutual fund buying happened in this quarter, which also keeps our hopes alive in the script.
The company has paid the dividend for the 2nd time this year, taking the total to 4 Rs per share so far, which is not bad either.

There also has been lots of speculation about El-Nino effect this year. For those, who are skeptical about the event, can always book profits and play safe, as the stock has already appreciated more than 70%, since its recommendation here in Dec '13.
For long term investors, ready to wait for more than a year or so, can continue to hold for stable returns from here on.

2) Plastiblends India:

As usual, the company continues to grow steadily in terms sales, but every time, with better utilization, which has resulted in high net profit this year. For the full year FY'14, the company has showed 14% growth in sales, and 77% growth in net profit, which is exceptional. The 27 Cr of net profit achieved this year, translates to an EPS of 21 for the full year.
Even after the rise seen in stock price in past few days, it is still trading at a P/E multiple of less than 7, based on FY'14 earnings.
The transparency of management is also seen by the fact that they have declared 5 Rs dividend, on account of higher profits this year.
Still looks a good bet for long term.
More details about the company can be found in recent post here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/04/plastiblends-india-merging-ideas-and.html

3) Manjushree Technopack:

Excellent set of numbers declared by Manjushree Technopack, with top line growing by 20% and bottomline by a staggering 73%. For the full year FY'14, sales grew by 21% and net profit grew by 9%, which is fair, considering the strong customer base that they have. Gradually, with time, as the utilization improves, and Rs appreciates against dollar, we can see a big jump in net profit as well, the way we did see this quarter.
Markets have already given some attention to stock, which can be seen by the fact that stock has appreciated by almost 50%, since it's recommendation here, some 2 months back.
Patient investors can still stay invested as the stock, even after such rally, is trading at a P/E multiple of 12, which is not that high considering the business model of the company, and its future prospects.
The company has added new industry segment like dairy, nutraceuticals and edible oils in their existing portfolio.
Manjushree has committed an investment of Rs 5 crores towards setting up the Plastics Recycling Innovation Centre, slated to be completed by March 2015. The centre will pave the way for new exploration and research in reuse of PET plastic waste. It will house an R&D centre, an auditorium, a museum, a library and a demo centre which will be accessible to public.
Lots of value ahead as far as I feel.
Initial Recommendation Link: http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/03/manjushree-technopack-packing-fmcg-food.html

4) Suven Life Sciences:

The company seems to have made a habit of showing extravagant growth in sales and net profit. This year has been a revelation for them as they have ended the year with sales growth of 95% and net profit growth of 367%, which is unbelievable. The growth in profit during the year was due to the supply of pre-launch quantities of intermediates for 3 NCE’s under CRAMS.
Suven’s major thrust on innovative R&D in Drug Discovery continues with a spending of Rs 47.9 Cr which is 9.387% of total revenues.
The Board has proposed a Dividend of Re. 0.50 per share, with an additional Special Silver Jubilee year dividend of Rs. 2.00 per share, aggregating to Rs 2.50 per share.
We have seen plenty of their products getting patents in various countries this year, which would further contribute to growth of the company.
With very heavy profits achieved this year, their annual EPS for FY'14, stands at 12.34, which means that, even after 300% increase in past 1 year, the P/E ratio still stands at 7.61.
Seems good but there is a twist.

Out of 510 Cr revenues achieved this year, 170 Cr was on account of pre-launch of 3 NCE. Hence, removing that, we can say that, company has achieved 340 Cr sales this year. The company expects to post sales of 400-450 Cr and net profit of 80-90 Cr next year, which is not comparable with this year, because of those pre-launch.
As per management, the margins may come down to 13-14% next year. They expect to spend 60 Cr on R&D next year, from 48 Cr this year.
Stock is looking good at present, if you are a long term investor, may be, for more than 2 years. It will be interesting to see, how markets reacts to the news of revenues and profits from pre-launch, which could drive the stock in short term.

All the best!!!!!

Monday, May 19, 2014

Munjal Auto Industries - Accelarating Towards Success

At last, the outcome of one of the most awaited event of 2014, is revealed, and it definitely proved to be above expectations of most of the analyst in the country. Markets got what it wanted.
Now comes the most interesting part of delivering by the newly formed NDA government.
The rise in stock markets off-late, was based on the positive speculations of strong govt formation. So it was more of sentiments that led to such rally, rather than any improvement in financial performance.
But with time, investors will again demand the performance, and then, they will once again start judging the markets based on it.
Lets keep our fingers crossed that NDA govt will not let us down.

If things goes as per expectations and growth starts picking up, auto sector would one of the first movers in the market. Hence, I am going with one of the stock in auto parts sector, which has been able to show consistent growth, even in difficult times. Hope to see it perform even better with favoring market conditions in future, as expected.

Munjal Auto Industries is a leading auto component manufacturing company in India producing Exhaust systems complete for two wheelers and four wheelers, Spoke rims for two wheelers, Steel Wheel Rims for Two Wheelers and Four Wheelers, Fuel Tanks for Four wheelers, Seat Frames for four wheelers and other automotive assemblies. The company has a technical collaboration with Samsung Industries Ltd. of Korea for the manufacture of Fuel Tanks for Four Wheelers. The company holds the pride of being among the largest manufacturer of the exhaust systems in the world, manufacturing close to 22,000 systems per day. Besides the company produces more than 10,000 spoke rims for motorcycles and steel wheel rims every day.

List of Esteemed Customers:
1) Hero MotoCorp
2) Tata Motors
3) Tata Johnson Controls Automotive
4) General Motors India
5) Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd
6) Suzlon

Moving on to financial now,
Company has been able to grow at CAGR of 25% in sales, even in a period which was considered to be tough for the auto industry.
For the first nine months in current year, the company has shown sales growth of 13% and net profit growth of 23%. The numbers were quite moderate because of the slowdown in auto industry.
But with expectation of things getting back to normal, they should be able to post 25% growth in sales going ahead, with the strong customer base that they have.

The results will be declared today itself.
Irrespective of numbers declared, the company should perform well in future.
Company has a meager debt, which is good.
The company has always paid a good dividend also, year after year.
Company has a strong product portfolio.
Company has time and again, taken various steps to improve their operating efficiency which could lead them to better performance in terms of margin by reducing their operating cost.

My Views: 
The company will be coming out with full year numbers today, and it should be in line with the expectations.
The company is expected to post a sales of 220 Cr for Q4, which will take their full year sales close to 820 Cr, which represents a growth of 15% over past year.
Once growth starts picking up, it won't take too long for the company to go back to 25% growth.
The EPS for the full year, is expected to be around 9.3. Considering that, the company is currently trading at a P/E of 6, which is quite less, considering the scope in the industry, if the purchasing power of every individual increases in India.
The stock definitely is looking very good for long term, but for those, who want to be on safer side, can wait for results to be declared today, and then take their decision.

The entire post is based on the assumption that growth cycle will pick up, which is not in hand of any individual. So, please do enough research work from your end, and take decision based on your belief about the new govt.

Note: One can also have a look at Shivam Autotech, which operates in the same sector and seems to have equally good potential in the future. Both of these stocks looks good to me in terms of valuation.

Monday, May 5, 2014

Ajanta Pharma - Q4 FY'14 Result Updates

Financial Results & Results Press Release for March 31, 2014
Link: Click Here

Board recommends Dividend:
Ajanta Pharma Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on May 05, 2014, inter alia, have recommended dividend @ Rs. 10/- per equity share on the face value of Rs. 5/- each, subject to approval of shareholders at the ensuing Annual General Meeting to be held in 2014.

Independent Press Release PDF
Link: Click Here

New Investor Presentation
Link: Click Here

Used few good words to describe the performance of the company some 21 months ago, when I started putting my views on this blog. Then had to use more such words, as the performance continued to impress every quarter. I thought at some point of time, after few such quarters, the numbers will stabilize, and then, finally, I will have to rest my words on praising the company.
But it seems a never ending process....
Sorry no new words left this time.. :)

Coming straight to numbers,
For Q4 FY'14,
Revenues stood at 311 Cr vs 249 Cr yoy, growth of 25%.
Net Profit stood at 70 Cr vs 29 Cr yoy, growth of 159%.
EPS stood at 19.94 vs 7.71 yoy.

For the full year FY'14 vs FY'13,
Revenues stood at 1110 Cr vs 839 Cr, growth of 32%.
Net Profit stood at 221 Cr vs 101 Cr, growth of 118%.
EPS stood at 62.83 vs 28.78.

The consolidated numbers are having similar ratios, so not much to mention over there.
Consolidated EPS for the full year FY'14, stood at 66.54.

My Views:
Lots of positives to be taken from the Press Release as well as New Investor Presentation. The company has filed one more ANDA with US FDA, which takes the total tally of ANDA pending for approval to 21. The management expects 2-3 ANDA approval in FY15. 24 new products were launched in FY14, out of which 5 were in Q4. R&D expense stood at 50 Cr vs 37 Cr last year, which is highly encouraging.
The biggest positive is the growth in India sales. In Q4, company showed 33% growth in India sales, and for the full year, it stood at 32%. Such growth in India & other emerging markets will reduce the dependency of profit on dollar rupee fluctuations.
The only issue is with the update on their upcoming facilities in Gujarat. According to previous presentation, it was expected to be commercialized in Q1 FY'15, whereas in the latest presentation, it is being shown as Q1 FY'16. We will have to get clarity on that from the management.

Coming to stock price, I don't think, Rs fluctuation will make that big a difference going ahead, as their sales in emerging markets is growing very strong, especially in India. At CMP, the stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 16, which is fair. But the company should continue the growth in bottom line going ahead. Hence stock price appreciation should continue in my opinion, but can't guarantee the pace of moving ahead, as it has appreciated tremendously in past 2 years.
Recommending a hold for current investors, and those with good patience can look for new entry at current levels also, using every dips to buy more. Upgrading the target price to 1500 now, keeping long term view in mind.
All the best!!!

Friday, May 2, 2014

Can Fin Homes & Dewan Housing - Q4 FY'14 Result Updates

CAN FIN HOMES

Financial Results & Auditors Report for March 31, 2014
Link: Click Here

Board recommends Dividend:
Can Fin Homes Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on April 26, 2014, inter alia, have recommended a dividend at Rs. 6.50/- per share (face value Rs. 10/- per equity share) for the financial year 2013-14, to be declared at the 27th annual general meeting of the Company to be held on or before September 30, 2014.

New Investor Presentation:
Link: Click Here

For Q4 FY'14,
Total Income stood at 161.67 Cr Vs 113.23 Cr yoy, growth of 43%.
Net Profit stood at 20.11 Cr Vs 15.54 Cr yoy, growth of 29%
EPS stood at 9.8 Vs 7.6

For full year FY'14 Vs FY'13
Total Income stood at 578 Cr Vs 392.7 Cr, growth of 47%.
Net Profit stood at 75.71 Cr Vs 54.12 Cr, growth of 40%.
EPS stood at 37 Vs 26.4.

My Views:
The growth continues to be stronger on account of higher net interest income. The loan book of the company has grown by 46% as seen in new investor presentation, and it is expected to grow stronger going ahead. The management is very confident about coming year, because of further addition of new branches, from existing 83 branches in 15+ states of the country.
With EPS of 37, the company is still looking cheaper, when compared with its peers in terms of P/E ratio. Not considering the ill-effects of election outcome, I change my target to 300 now, from earlier target of 200, given here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2013/06/few-more-multibaggers-for-long-term.html


DEWAN HOUSING

Financial Results for March 31, 2014
Link: Click Here

Board recommend Final Dividend & Special Dividend:
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on April 30, 2014, has recommended dividend to be paid out of current year profits @ Rs. 2/- per equity share to the equity shareholders as final dividend along with additional special 30th Anniversary celebration dividend @ Rs. 3/- per equity share, aggregating to Rs. 8/-, per equity share for the year 2013-14.

Latest Investor Presentation (Jan '14)
Link: Click Here

For Q4 FY'14,
Total Income stood at 1417.08 Cr Vs 1716.6 Cr yoy, decline of 17%.
Net Profit stood at 141.17 Cr Vs 196.63 Cr yoy, decline of 28%.
EPS stood at 11 Vs 16.77.

For the full year FY'14 Vs FY'13,
Total Income stood at 4969.68 Cr Vs 4078.94 Cr, growth of  22%.
Net Profit stood at 529 Cr Vs 451.85 Cr, growth of 17%.
EPS stood at 41.23 Vs 38.47.

My Views:
The numbers for this quarter were disappointing, but for the full year, the growth of 22% is not that bad. In the year, the company showed 29% increase in sanction of housing loans. As you all know, we entered the script just based on sheer undervaluation, rather then preferring the sector. In that sense, the script is still slightly cheaper, but being a mid-cap, the expectations are always higher. Hence you are bound to see, ups and downs, if the numbers don't turn out to be favorable. It would not be a wrong move, to do some profit booking, as it is already trading almost 50% higher from the recommended price, seen in link above. As said earlier also, if you are ready to face challenges from election outcome, one can still continue to hold remaining shares, at this price. Looking at this quarter numbers, I would like to change the earlier target of 250 to 275 now for long term.
For safe players, new entry in both the stocks, is not suggested before election outcome.