Thursday, May 22, 2014

Q4 Result Updates - Dhanuka, Plastiblends, Manjushree and Suven

1) Dhanuka Agritech:

The company lived up to their expectations of achieving 750 Cr sales in FY'14, which was expressed earlier by the management, if I remember correctly. They only fell short by some 10 Cr, which is acceptable.
26% growth in sales and 45% growth in net profit, is highly appreciable for the full year, considering the fact  that the major jump in revenues comes in Sept Qtr only.
The full year ended with the EPS of close to 19, which makes the P/E ratio stand at 16.
Most of undervaluation in the stock is now erased, as far as I feel.
Now its about the performance in coming quarters, and coming years.
Lots of mutual fund buying happened in this quarter, which also keeps our hopes alive in the script.
The company has paid the dividend for the 2nd time this year, taking the total to 4 Rs per share so far, which is not bad either.

There also has been lots of speculation about El-Nino effect this year. For those, who are skeptical about the event, can always book profits and play safe, as the stock has already appreciated more than 70%, since its recommendation here in Dec '13.
For long term investors, ready to wait for more than a year or so, can continue to hold for stable returns from here on.

2) Plastiblends India:

As usual, the company continues to grow steadily in terms sales, but every time, with better utilization, which has resulted in high net profit this year. For the full year FY'14, the company has showed 14% growth in sales, and 77% growth in net profit, which is exceptional. The 27 Cr of net profit achieved this year, translates to an EPS of 21 for the full year.
Even after the rise seen in stock price in past few days, it is still trading at a P/E multiple of less than 7, based on FY'14 earnings.
The transparency of management is also seen by the fact that they have declared 5 Rs dividend, on account of higher profits this year.
Still looks a good bet for long term.
More details about the company can be found in recent post here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/04/plastiblends-india-merging-ideas-and.html

3) Manjushree Technopack:

Excellent set of numbers declared by Manjushree Technopack, with top line growing by 20% and bottomline by a staggering 73%. For the full year FY'14, sales grew by 21% and net profit grew by 9%, which is fair, considering the strong customer base that they have. Gradually, with time, as the utilization improves, and Rs appreciates against dollar, we can see a big jump in net profit as well, the way we did see this quarter.
Markets have already given some attention to stock, which can be seen by the fact that stock has appreciated by almost 50%, since it's recommendation here, some 2 months back.
Patient investors can still stay invested as the stock, even after such rally, is trading at a P/E multiple of 12, which is not that high considering the business model of the company, and its future prospects.
The company has added new industry segment like dairy, nutraceuticals and edible oils in their existing portfolio.
Manjushree has committed an investment of Rs 5 crores towards setting up the Plastics Recycling Innovation Centre, slated to be completed by March 2015. The centre will pave the way for new exploration and research in reuse of PET plastic waste. It will house an R&D centre, an auditorium, a museum, a library and a demo centre which will be accessible to public.
Lots of value ahead as far as I feel.
Initial Recommendation Link: http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/03/manjushree-technopack-packing-fmcg-food.html

4) Suven Life Sciences:

The company seems to have made a habit of showing extravagant growth in sales and net profit. This year has been a revelation for them as they have ended the year with sales growth of 95% and net profit growth of 367%, which is unbelievable. The growth in profit during the year was due to the supply of pre-launch quantities of intermediates for 3 NCE’s under CRAMS.
Suven’s major thrust on innovative R&D in Drug Discovery continues with a spending of Rs 47.9 Cr which is 9.387% of total revenues.
The Board has proposed a Dividend of Re. 0.50 per share, with an additional Special Silver Jubilee year dividend of Rs. 2.00 per share, aggregating to Rs 2.50 per share.
We have seen plenty of their products getting patents in various countries this year, which would further contribute to growth of the company.
With very heavy profits achieved this year, their annual EPS for FY'14, stands at 12.34, which means that, even after 300% increase in past 1 year, the P/E ratio still stands at 7.61.
Seems good but there is a twist.

Out of 510 Cr revenues achieved this year, 170 Cr was on account of pre-launch of 3 NCE. Hence, removing that, we can say that, company has achieved 340 Cr sales this year. The company expects to post sales of 400-450 Cr and net profit of 80-90 Cr next year, which is not comparable with this year, because of those pre-launch.
As per management, the margins may come down to 13-14% next year. They expect to spend 60 Cr on R&D next year, from 48 Cr this year.
Stock is looking good at present, if you are a long term investor, may be, for more than 2 years. It will be interesting to see, how markets reacts to the news of revenues and profits from pre-launch, which could drive the stock in short term.

All the best!!!!!

37 comments:

  1. The information mentioned at the end in Suven Life Sciences is derived from the management interview here:
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/resultsboardroom/suven-life-pegs-rd-spend-for-fy15-at-rs-60cr_1091331.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Kunal,

    BSE Small Cap Index is about to kiss 9000 !!! It's all time high was read as 14240 on 8th January 2008 good more than six years back !!!! Sensex during the same period touched 21000+ and now it has already clocked 24000+ !!!! Companies like Plastiblends, Photoquip, Cravatex, Gulshan Polyols, Camlin Fine, Dynemic Products, etc. were much much smaller both topline and bottomline-wise !!!! Many of these Companies quoted during 2008 to 2014 at much higher valuations as compared to what they are today even after recent run-ups !!!! This only shows how much juice is still available in small-caps !!!!! I expect by the end of calendar year small-cap Index will be around 11000-11500 !!!! Correspondingly many of the small-caps tracked in this forum will witness good performance.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent write up..... can't agree with you more..

      My only worry is that whethere the current run-up in markets is sustainable or not. It might just be a matter of time, when investors again start looking at fundamentals rather than sentiments...
      Even in that case, I feel, small cap index should not take a big hit, as the index is way under-valued considering the potential of companies in the index.

      Delete
  3. Hi Kunal,

    Gulshan Polyols is rocking today with robust volumes of 60K !!!!! It closed at 20% upper circuit @ 138.65 !!!! Lot of juice is still left, only need is how much and how can you squeeze :D :D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It might be some investment firm buying ahead of results, and probably excellent dividend to go with good set of numbers....

      Delete
    2. Any institution buying Gulshan Polyols will be very positive for the stock !!!

      Picked up some more in this rally :D

      totalview

      Delete
  4. Hi Kunal, if i ask you to rank below 4 companies based on their future growth and undervalued price, what would be your priorities?
    1. Gulshan polylols
    2. Pphotoquick
    3. Plastiblends
    4. Dynemic products
    thanks,
    mayur

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Mayur,

      Please don't ask for comparison between 2 companies, it's difficult for me to answer such questions, and especially companies from different sectors, where comparison is not possible at all...
      Because, the growth in one sector can't be compared with equivalent growth in other.

      Here, the only comparison that can be made is between Gulshan Polyols and Dynemic Products.
      Photoquip India, is good in its sector, and so is Plastiblends.

      In comparison, between Gulshan and Dynemic, the only thing I can is that, over next few years, I am expecting Gulshan to grow at 15% CAGR in sales, whereas, expecting Dynemic at 20%. The level of undervaluation in both the companies is same, though they have achieved some appreciation in past few days.

      Regards.

      Delete
  5. Next stock post will mostly come from Consumer Goods sector, just to diversify the portfolio...
    There might still be some good bets in Specialty Chemicals and Pharma sector, but on account already high allocation in that sectors, I am avoiding few interesting stocks, for now...
    May be we will come to it later...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a very good step (Y)

      Delete
  6. 48% sales growth showed by Ricoh India.
    It would have been a very interesting script, if management would havr not decided to delist...
    The projection of management also proved to be bang on, with their aim of achieving 1000 Cr sales for FY'14.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Kunal,

      Excellent set of numbers declared by Ricoh India inspite of adverse exchange rate through out the year !!!! Delisting will be very painful for existing shareholders as the Company was now ready to deliver superlative performance quarter after quarter !!!!!

      Delete
    2. Hi Kunal,

      Expectations are running that Ricoh India's exit price may be in the range of 250-300 !!!!!! If at al it materialises what a multibagger gains it will have !!! But very exciting days ahead at Ricoh India counter !!!

      totalview

      Delete
    3. Seems like new entry, even after 4 months of announcement of delisting, is also not a bad option... :-D

      Delete
  7. Please share your views on Waterbase.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Undervalued but it might test your patience.

      We can see some upside, based on current numbers, but still a long way to go before they repeat the performance of Avanti Feeds.

      The sector so far has been operating at low P/E. Even Avanti Feeds is trading at a P/E multiple of around 6, based on estimated FY'14 earnings, and so is Waterbase, may be slightly lesser.

      Overall sector has seen some improvements, with challenges faced by some south-east asian countries, operating in same industry.

      Delete
  8. Do you track any of the below logistics stocks?? If yes, pls share your views and their future growth and which is more undervalued?
    1. TCI
    2. Gati
    3. Aeigis logistics
    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Like Aegis Logistics the most from the sector...
      Not tracking the other 2...

      Aegis is undervalued in my opinion, right now...

      Invest with a long term view...

      Delete
  9. Hi Kunal,

    I have been following your blog since a long time. Can I add you on whatsapp?
    Is it a good call to enter superhouse at current price of 125?. It was recommended by you since a long time back. What are the future prospects of the company and how much it can go according to you.

    Thanks
    Anuj

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think there is any point in adding, as I am not providing any daily/weekly tips.... :-D
      You can always put your views here. I will try my best to answer your queries within short time.

      Regarding Superhouse, I was skeptical in creating a separate post for Superhouse, because, there are so many tough policies on leather export, which could hamper the performance of the companies in that business, and I don't think it will improve much, even in Modi's government.
      But the undervaluedness in Superhouse, was so attractive at that time around 90, which forced me to name it.
      Frankly speaking, it is still undervalued, but not sure, how much upside we can expect from here.

      Regards.

      Delete
  10. Hi Kunal,

    Average set of quarterly numbers from Gulshan Polyols !!!! Dividend maintained @ 50% !!!! Margins are under pressure but this was expected !!! However Annual EPS is a decent one @ 30.97 and at CMP it is trading at a PE of just 4X leaving enough scope for appreciation !!! What is remarkable that during the current year Company has added assets for Rs.50 crores a stupendous growth of 50% and this should contribute substantially to the top-line during the year !!!! Margins should get eased !!! We can expect an EPS of around 36 !!!! However, as usual shall wait for your comments !!!

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The numbers are below expectations.. but still on undervaluation basis, it looks good...
      The numbers for the full year, are not bad, with topline growth of 15%. The management is expecting similar growth in FY'15 also.
      Profit should be healthy for coming year, if Rs appreciates further...
      Good to see asset growth of 50%, lets see how much will it contribute to the top line in coming year.

      Delete
  11. Hi Kunal,
    Excellent results by Dynemic Producs...Net profit on consolidated basis up by 130%
    Moreover, good news is that they have postponed idea of subdivision of shares...and declared Rs 1.5/- as dividend.
    Cheers!
    -Mayur

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, that's good news in my opinion also, though it will put some downside pressure on the stock....
      The results have been excellent..
      Looks very cheap at this rate...

      Delete
    2. Still I fail to understand promoters' intention to propose split and that too pre-declaring it 10 : 1 !!!!! My apprehension that they have played in the hands of..... It needs a close watch for some time to ensure that promoters are manipulative !!!!! I wish my apprehensions are proved wrong !

      Delete
    3. Sorry for the typo "It needs a close watch for some time to ensure that promoters are NOT manipulative !!!!

      totalview

      Delete
    4. I think its too early to predict such behavior of promoters, but of course, possibility can't be ruled out either...
      Business is growing strongly, and seems to have a bright future, seriously, don't want that to happen...
      I also wish your apprehensions are proved wrong.... :-D

      Delete
    5. I wonder everytime why stocks goes down despite of excellent results..now same case with Dynemic and Aegis, posted very good results on consolidated y-o-y basis. How to analyse expectations and sentiments or is there any valid reason for such type of down movements.
      Pls advise.
      -mayur

      Delete
    6. Mayur,

      Don't be so desperate in seeing your stocks jump up immediately after results. If you have invested in a good script, you will rewarded sooner or later... :-)

      I have not been tracking Aegis so deeply, so won't comment on that. But Dynemic has gone down, because of postponement of split of shares process. The stock went up from 30-40 levels, just on the basis of split news, which was before the results. So it had to face some downside, because of that cancellation, which is in a way good.

      Investors can utilize this opportunity to accumulate more, as it will start going up sooner or later, if results continues to impress...

      Regards.

      Delete
  12. Excellent sales growth posted by Photoquip India, with boosting sales of CORVI Led Lights, registering 33% jump.
    But that same segment is the reason for heavy loss incurred by the company during the quarter, and hence for the full year..

    Investors with big hearts can buy/hold the stock, I, definitely see a bright future for the company, but it will take its own time...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not to forget Cravatex, which also posted good sales growth.... Profit should follow sooner or later there....
      Keeping fingers crossed...

      Delete
  13. Old Saying on the Stock Exchange "When there are sales there will be profits" !!!! I understand they have plans for unleasing TV ads. !!! Even street-lights have been developed by them and got lab approved. Can be big segment in Govt sector, private apartments, parks, public utility services and places !!!! Needs patience to be a multi-bagger !!!!!

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the info....
      I haven't changed my position in the stock in past 3 years, even without any returns...
      Ready to wait going ahead also.... :-)

      Delete
  14. Hi Kunal,

    Eagerly waiting for your next pick from consumer space. if possible, do post before Monday.
    Regards.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Sameer,

      Your words puts me under pressure. It is not that the name that I suggest, is definitely going to start its run up from next day, week or month.
      As in case of Cravatex and Photoquip, we have been waiting for years without any returns, but atleast, we are proudly holding the shares, and foreseeing a bright future. Talking about returns, it could be multi-fold some day, but it might test your patience for long.

      I, very well know, that the past few stocks recommended here, were all set to give good returns on immediate basis, because they were very strong in numbers for past few years, as well as in strong futuristic business. But that might not be the case everytime.
      May be the stock coming has some negatives, but overall, I will post it based on my belief in the company, and its future.

      Hope you understand that. :-)

      Regards.

      Delete
    2. |I, very well know, that the past few stocks recommended here, were all set to give good returns on immediate basis, because they were very strong in numbers for past few years, as well as in strong futuristic business."

      In addition to your frank comment
      I strongly feel that your blog has been famous nowadays in investor fraternity and thats also one of the reason for immediate good returns :) in recent stock picks. My heartfelt thanks to you for the hardwork and making us to keep faith in the stocks. Eventhough i have not invested any of your mentioned stock except granules (invested before coming to this blog also exited with 3bagger).
      Regards
      Selvi

      Delete
    3. Thanks Selvi for that extra kind words, but I don't rate myself capable of driving the stocks, by inspiring big investors...
      It is just a coincidence that stocks like Camlin, Manjushree, Dhanuka and few others have given great returns in very short term, but that doesn't mean, the same will happen with every new stock suggested here...

      Delete