Sunday, June 8, 2014

TCPL Packaging - Probable Candidate To Repeat Manjushree Technopack


When we decided to enter Manjushree Technopack, it was a risk taken entering in such industry where debt levels are high on account capital intensive nature of work. We were highly surprise to see it rewarding nearly 75% within less than 3 months of its recommendation here. But from that, it seems that market is ready to rewards stocks which have strong presence in markets and goodwill among some of the high profile customers, inspite of high debt levels. In the similar business, but in a different sector, we have a company, which is providing an alternative packaging provision i.e. Cartons, to various industries in form of TCPL Packaging.

TCPL Packaging Ltd is one of India's largest manufacturers of printed folding cartons.
Today, TCPL Packaging operates at six manufacturing units, three in Silvassa, two in Haridwar, one in Goa. All the plants are ISO 9001: 2008, ISO 22000 : 2005 certified and are also compliant with BRC/IoP Global Standard-Packaging Issue 3, which is suitable for direct food contact. In addition, plants at Silvassa and Haridwar are also FSC certified & SEDEX Compliant.
TCPL is one of the largest exporters of printed cartons from India. It regularly caters to consumers in countries like UK, The Netherlands, UAE, Bangladesh etc.
Exports constitute about 22% of TCPL's annual revenues.

TCPL manufactures following range of products:
Printed blanks & outers, Folding cartons, Litho Lamination, Plastic cartons, Blister paper, Shelf ready packaging.

Industries Served:
-- Liquor
-- Food & Beverages
-- FMCG
-- Pharma
-- Few Others

List Of Esteemed Custormers:
http://www.tcpl.in/portfolio_customers.html

From 34 lacs sales in 1990, to 395 Cr sales today, the company has made its presence felt in the market. Currently the company converts more than 3500 tons of paperboard every month.
One of the finest company in the similar sector, is Paper Products Ltd (Ofcourse, with many other products in their portfolio)., which is also fundamentally strong company. But looking at the data, it is presently having more than 8 times the market cap as that of TCPL, and having 2.5 times the sales. Hence TCPL provides a better opportunity at current market price, but that comes with a cost that TCPL is not so popular among investors, and hence may test ones patience to stay connected with the script.

The AR Packaging Group AB, Lund Sweden and TCPL Packaging signed a strategic partnership agreement on 22nd October, 2012. The objective of the agreement is a strategic partnership mainly in co-operation in the manufacturing, sourcing and sales and marketing in India for the solid folding carton market. 

Over the past 5 years, the company has shown CAGR of 26% in sales and 45% in profit. The company has regularly paid dividend and that too with decent dividend yield.
The updated balance sheet shows an increase in Fixed Assets as well as Capital Work In Progress. It may have a positive impact in the future.
The book value of the company is also strong at almost 90 Rs per share.
As per the Dec'13 numbers, one can see in the notes section of the result sheet that the Company has decided to expand its operations by setting a plant near Guwahati in State of Assam. It is expected to be ready for commercial production by the end of year 2014.

My Views:
The company ended FY'14 with the sales figure of 395 Cr and net profit of 12.5 Cr. The net profit remained sub-dued throughout the year on account of higher input cost, and as always, it hardly matters to us until the company keeps growing with sales every year, and leaving no stone unturned for expansion, if possible.
For the full year, the company reported an EPS of 14.37, which makes the P/E ratio look cheap at close to 7, against the industry wide average P/E of 16. Company has declared dividend of 2.5 Rs per share this year, which is slightly lesser than 2.65 Rs per share paid last year, but that is because of lesser net profit. Still, a yield of close to 2.5% is not bad.
One has to understand that liquidity has always been an issue in the counter, and hence it is prone to violent movements in either direction based on performance. The recommendation here is for long term, so one might have to wait till a period when company will have enough to attract big investors, and hence, be a regularly traded counter on stock exchange.
As said earlier also, it might test ones patience, so enter, based on your risk profile, and your understanding of the company's future.
Not invested so far, but will look to enter in future, when I will have enough cash in hand. :)

Sunday, June 1, 2014

Q4 FY'14 Result Updates - Gulshan Polyols, Camlin, Dynemic, Photoquip And Cravatex

First of all, let me inform that, as mentioned earlier, I was studying some of the consumer stocks, but unfortunately, wasn't fully satisfied with my study and hence delaying the post related to new stock for now. Some of my study included Hawkins Cooker, about which I mentioned earlier also, when it was trading at 1950 Rs. With excellent Q4 numbers, the stock has appreciated 25%, which is good.
The other stocks in my study includes IFB Industries and Lloyd Elect & Engg.
I am yet to derive any conclusion, and hence avoiding the new post for now.

Coming back to Q4 numbers,

1) Gulshan Polyols:

Sales figure turned out to be below expectations, but again, apart from current undervaluation, results sheet had some positives. The best part was increase in fixed asset by almost 50%, which might help them grow better in future.
The result for the full year looked very decent, with sales growing at 15%, and net profit at 12%.
EPS for the full year stood at 31, which makes the P/E ratio, still look cheap around 4.
Dividend remains same as there was not much growth in profits, which is fine.
Revenue growth might continue to remain steady at 15%, but margins might improve if Rs appreciates further, as it will bring down the input cost, according to management.
Its a hold at CMP.

2) Camlin Fine Sciences:

Good numbers posted by the company with sales growing by 36% and net profit by almost 90%. The re-rating was always due, even before such result. Hopefully, it came only after we discovered the stock, and hence were positively rewarded.
The company said it was successful in holding on to the market share in major markets and also registered a growth in emerging markets like South America and Asia by extensive customer reach through its sales teams. This growth has been achieved in spite of recessionary pressures in the international market during the year. The growth of the company is also powered by new and value added products. The company has increased its market share by 3 new products from the diphenol down stream as per planned strategy.
The company as a part of its growth strategy has progressed towards expanding its product portfolio in shelf life extension and developed a range of ready to use antioxidant solutions to address the shelf life extension needs of processed food products, in segments like bakery, confectionery, fried snack foods, dairy.
As always, profit booking is not a bad idea, once your stock has appreciated almost 3 times in 3 months, but still recommending a hold on this counter, with atleast some quantity, for long term, as it is still trading at a P/E ratio of 10-11, with business having plenty of scope in future.

3) Dynemic Products:

It is very common behavior that when there is any announcement expected related to bonus/split of shares, then it is mostly driven on basis of that news, and not on the financial performance for short period. So, no surprises to see that stock hit lower circuit for 2 days, after the announcement of postponing the split of shares program. I wouldn't mind that much considering the fact that a) the rise in past few days, was also because of the split news, so the some decline after the cancellation was inevitable and b) I am a long term investor, so not much worried about short term movements.
Speaking of excellent numbers posted by the company, the sales for the full year rose by 37%, and net profit by 136%.
Recommending a strong buy/hold on the counter looking at business prospectus.
Original recommendation link: http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/03/dynemic-products-name-behind-colors-of.html

4) Photoquip India:

Excellent results in terms of top line growth, which was slightly above expectations, mainly because there was good growth seen in sales of photographic products as well, along with almost quadruple growth in sales of CORVI products over last year.
The heavy loss encountered was on the account of improving CORVI business, where company has to face challenges with initial marketing expense. When the year FY'14 started, we, very positively assumed that if all things goes right, the CORVI sales should be somewhere around 20 Cr by year end, and we were not proved wrong, because of all the efforts put up by management to ensure the success of their new venture.
It is interesting to see, how quickly, the products gets penetrated into the common buying options available in the market. The way things have turned out so far, I don't think management will leave any stone unturned to make sure that the venture is a big success in future.
I have no doubts over the quality of their products, and it is quite evident looking at the fact that they have received so many innovations award.
I am yet to have a discussion with management. Once done, with post the details here.
Investors with lots of patience can hold/buy the stock.

5) Cravatex Ltd:

Improving, but best is yet so far. The good thing is that atleast they are able to show sales growth even in these difficult times. The profit should follow once Rs appreciates, to go below 50 Rs a dollar, which might be far, but there is a strong hope.
Considering the case, where NDA govt is able to deliver what is expected of them, then there will be 2 things which will help Cravatex grow better. One is the appreciation of Rs as discussed above, and second is improving life style of a common man in india, which will indirectly help the sales of products distributed by the company.
The positive that can be derived now that FY'14 is over, is the results in FY'15, will be compared with results of FY'14, where dollar was strongest against Rs, so far. Hence, at least this year, we might not see, declining growth in terms of net profit. :)
Those who have trust in the new govt and its positive implications, can continue to hold the stock for long term.

Holding all the stocks mentioned here, except a minor 25% profit booking in Camlin Fine Sciences.
The company said it was successful in holding on to the market share in major markets and also registered a growth in emerging markets like South America and Asia by extensive customer reach through its sales teams. This growth has been achieved in spite of recessionary pressures in the international market during the year.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/camlin-fine-sciences-fy14-netat-rs-2871-cr_1095370.html?utm_source=ref_article
The company said it was successful in holding on to the market share in major markets and also registered a growth in emerging markets like South America and Asia by extensive customer reach through its sales teams. This growth has been achieved in spite of recessionary pressures in the international market during the year.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/camlin-fine-sciences-fy14-netat-rs-2871-cr_1095370.html?utm_source=ref_article
The company said it was successful in holding on to the market share in major markets and also registered a growth in emerging markets like South America and Asia by extensive customer reach through its sales teams. This growth has been achieved in spite of recessionary pressures in the international market during the year. The growth of the company is also powered by new and value added products. The company has increased its market share by 3 new products from the diphenol down stream as per planned strategy, the release said. The company as a part of its growth strategy has progressed towards expanding its product portfolio in shelf life extension and developed a range of ready to use antioxidant solutions to address the shelf life extension needs of processed food products, in segments like bakery, confectionery, fried snack foods, dairy.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/camlin-fine-sciences-fy14-netat-rs-2871-cr_1095370.html?utm_source=ref_article
The company said it was successful in holding on to the market share in major markets and also registered a growth in emerging markets like South America and Asia by extensive customer reach through its sales teams. This growth has been achieved in spite of recessionary pressures in the international market during the year. The growth of the company is also powered by new and value added products. The company has increased its market share by 3 new products from the diphenol down stream as per planned strategy, the release said. The company as a part of its growth strategy has progressed towards expanding its product portfolio in shelf life extension and developed a range of ready to use antioxidant solutions to address the shelf life extension needs of processed food products, in segments like bakery, confectionery, fried snack foods, dairy.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/camlin-fine-sciences-fy14-netat-rs-2871-cr_1095370.html?utm_source=ref_article
The company said it was successful in holding on to the market share in major markets and also registered a growth in emerging markets like South America and Asia by extensive customer reach through its sales teams. This growth has been achieved in spite of recessionary pressures in the international market during the year. The growth of the company is also powered by new and value added products. The company has increased its market share by 3 new products from the diphenol down stream as per planned strategy, the release said. The company as a part of its growth strategy has progressed towards expanding its product portfolio in shelf life extension and developed a range of ready to use antioxidant solutions to address the shelf life extension needs of processed food products, in segments like bakery, confectionery, fried snack foods, dairy.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results/camlin-fine-sciences-fy14-netat-rs-2871-cr_1095370.html?utm_source=ref_article