Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Updates On Ajanta Pharma, Granules India, Manjushree Technopack And Dynemic Products

1) Ajanta Pharma

The dream run in the counter continues, and since last 2 years, the stock has stopped surprising on the upside. It seems like we should stopped discussing any targets on the counter, and keep on enjoying the flow. The stock may seem expensive to few now, but that is because of positive speculations about the future of the company. Very less dependency on US markets, high margins for a growing company, very low debt, and promoters releasing pledged shares, are some of the reasons for its continuing upside journey in recent times. The company seems to be achieving the stability in net profit margins around 20%, in coming years, which would very good. With 2 new plants getting operation this year, we may further see similar sales growth going ahead also.
Long term investors can still continue to hold.

2) Granules India:

The stock is getting a severe re-rating on the upside, which was due anytime, since the initiation of their capacity expansion. The results for FY14 were spectacular, and we might continue to see their out-performance, in coming 2-3 years also. To add fuel to fire, as far as stock price is concerned, the company successfully completed the US FDA inspection for their paracetamol facility, recently. Also, there has been lots of shares getting released from pledge by promoters, and some buying from open market off-late.
The stock has now started trading around 13-14 P/E based on FY14 earnings, which is still less, compared to its peers. But as per management, they continue to expect good growth in net profit (even better than sales), because of better utilization, good operational efficiency and increasing focus on sales of finished dosages. That should further improve their margins.
Expecting company to end FY15, with an EPS of close to 50.
Recommending a hold / buy on dips strategy on the counter.

3) Manjushree Technopack:

The stock has achieved the recommended target of 300, given here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/03/manjushree-technopack-packing-fmcg-food.html
But the company has very good presence in its field, and it may continue to improve on sales front.
Their major clients are working on a model, where the client provides the required raw material, and Manjushree has to bear the manufacturing expense only, which will reduce the dependency on raw material. Hence margins will improve, and they should be able to post good profits, with increasing number of such clients.
Last week, promoters bought almost 50k shares from open market in a day or two.
Still recommending a hold on the counter.

4) Dynemic Products:

Some unexpected announcements made by the company, assisted the violent movements on the counter for few days, but that seems to have taken a halt now. From past few days, company has moved well in upward direction, which was led by some of the institutional buying in good quantities. The stock continues to look cheaper, with P/E ratio of 5.5, even after such move, but with companies having market cap below 100 Cr, you never know, when your reward will be coming.
The best approach is to hold keeping our eyes open on every news flow surrounding the company.
For now, it looks like a buy / hold stock, even after 75% appreciation from recommended price here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/03/dynemic-products-name-behind-colors-of.html

Note: 
The recommendations are based on looking at company's future, and their long term prospects. As I have repeatedly said, its never a bad idea, to keep booking profits when company is moving up, so as to keep our portfolio balanced.

Happy investing!!!!

58 comments:

  1. Hi Kunal,

    Your blog is really helpful and it helped me minting a lot of money. I hope you keep up the good work and god bless you in every field of your life. Cheers!!
    P.S. - Guru dakshina on its way(whenever I come to Pune next) :)

    Anshul

    ReplyDelete
  2. Kunal, granules eps close to 50/- for fy15!
    Very conservative.
    -Anand

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even an EPS of 50, means 35% growth in net profit.
      That also would be very decent..

      Delete
  3. Sir, please throw some light on fluidomat.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I did posted my views on it, please use search functionality on right hand side..

      Delete
  4. Hey Kunal Thanks a lot for updates. Out of 4 stocks, I hold Granules (@123) & Dynemic (@32) tightly but with few quantities. Earlier i had booked 20% profits in granules around 350-400 levels and but realized mistake later on and will not sell single share at least for 2-3 years.
    I missed others two. But still no regrets. My latest pick was Gulshan Poliyols @181, after I followed you.
    Thanks for all guidance brother.
    Cheers!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Mayur,

      Never regret profit booking. It is a part of investment strategy.
      I don't have a case in mind, but there may be an instances which could hammer the best of stocks. So, its like being safe over your investment. Plus, as I mentioned earlier also, you should make sure that your allocation to a single company/sector does not go much higher, otherwise, when there a negative news flow surrounding your company/sector, your portfolio will take a severe hit.
      So, always have a balanced portfolio.

      These are just my views on your comments saying " Earlier i had booked 20% profits in granules around 350-400 levels and but realized mistake later on and will not sell single share at least for 2-3 years"

      Regards.

      Delete
  5. Sarath RamakrishnanJuly 3, 2014 at 9:47 PM

    Hi Kunal,

    Thank you very much for your sincere efforts in stock research !! I have really benefited a lot from it. ..Keep the good work up!!
    Have you ever got a chance to look at another promising microcap " Gujarat borosil ltd" which is the sole manufacture in India of low iron glass used for solar panels. Looking at the potential for solar energy space, it seems like a cool buy !! Much appreciate if you can also have a look at TV today network from media space, which may benefit from digitalisation in coming years. Thanks . Sarath

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Sarath,

      Positive on Gujarat Borosil, if you have patience, because it has already appreciated a lot in past year.
      Not tracking media space much, but based on data, TV Today looks promising. One can keep it for long term investment.

      Regards.

      Delete
  6. Hi, apart from TV today, I personally like DB Corp (bullish) and Hindustan Venture media (steady returns) stocks...Unfortunately I do not held any of them due to capital crunch :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mentioned about Hindustan Media Ventures previously also, mostly, in TCPL post.
      Not tracking DB Corp, since its a huge company now, with market cap over 6000 Cr.

      Delete
    2. you can look at MPS (macmillan old company) now mnc with good dividend yield and providing complete solutions ,The company underwent a demerger process to form MPS Ltd and Macmillan Publishers India Ltd. The former focuses on the publishing technology and services business and the latter on domestic publishing activities.
      ADI BPO has now purchased Macmillan's stake in MPS and has management control of the company.

      Delete
    3. MPS is good among the publishing names... but I feel the re-rating has already taken place with stock touching 424 from 100 levels or so, in a year...
      The stock is now trading at a P/E ratio of 13... with market cap over 500 Cr, with annual sales of less than 200 Cr...
      The company recently has entered into good ventures which will drive their growth going ahead.
      The stock seems to be probable candidate for steady returns...

      Delete
  7. Please share your views on sterling tools....i found it fundamentally strong with increase of 50% profits.....please share your views on it...it is still hidden from people as volumes are low....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The results for past 4 years, have almost been flat, in terms of sales as well as net profit...
      Anything specific you like about it in past data?
      Can't comment on upcoming quarters, as the numbers might start picking up, in line with overall pick up in the sector..

      Delete
    2. Not the past data, but the net profit in 2014 is 15.6 cr which implies 50% growth as it was 10cr in 2013.....i am thinking to wait for next quarter result before entering this....

      Delete
    3. I think it was almost 15 Cr in 2012 as well....
      Don't think, that is a major achievement...
      There are lots of factors to look at.

      Delete
  8. also share your views on nbcc....fundamentally strong and debt free company....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not studied NBCC ever.
      Cant comment on it....

      Delete
    2. NBCC just boomed to 460 levels from 390.... :)

      Delete
  9. your view on avanti feeds and punjab chemicals.especially avanti is in dream run,thanks to the shrimp prices,with good dividend yields and profits,with agricultural status for aquaculture and tax incentives will feel it looks still lot of appreciation in value and also punjab chemicals again profits are started to come.

    ram,hyderabad

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Avanti Feeds has been discussed here before.
      But I always felt it as a risky pick, because a single negative could lead to entire downfall in business, like what happened with some of the shrimp exporters in Thailand and other countries because of some EMS virus.
      Valuation perspective, it can still be considered a cheaper option.

      It not about profit or loss for Punjab Chemicals. They have plenty of other issues to be resolved.
      I have hardly seen a Debt:Equity ratio as bad as this.
      They have a negative reserves on the balance sheet, and the debt is more than 300 Cr.
      I will have to check, if management has given any justifications on this.

      Delete
  10. Dear Kunal, thanks for earlier replies. Can you share some long term views on Bilcare though on debt but holds very good future.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Their steps on reducing debts will be very crucial for success.
      I think they have already started the process by divesting some assets. If they continue to find ways to reduce the debt levels, there is a possible re-rating, because they have a strong presence in world markets, not just in india...
      If you believe in management's ability, you can definitely invest in the company.

      Delete
  11. Sir whjat is your view on 'Lloyd eletric' & ' Manakasia Ltd' .
    are they worth investment.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Presented my views on Lloyd Electric some time back. Please use search functionality on right hand side.
      No change in views from that.

      Not tracking Manaksia.

      Delete
  12. Dear Kunal, appreciate your feedback with strong belief in the company Bilcare hence I hold 8,500 shares @95/- and will add more. God,s grace it should be a multibagger in times to come......hope you will keep me updated time to time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These are some of the picks, where you have to go with your conviction.
      They have tremendous potential, but will the management be able deliver, is the big question.
      If you believe, go ahead. But if you have slightest of doubt, think about it before investing. As always, there are plenty other options available in the market. :)
      Plus, it depends on your risk profile.
      If you have risk appetite, these are the stocks to invest in. Because returns are multi-fold.

      Regards,
      Kunal

      Delete
  13. Hi Sir,

    I have been following your blog since a long time. I find it helpful and have earned a lot of money. Thanks for providing it for free.
    Please share your views on swiss glasscoat and grm overseas.

    Thanks
    Rupali

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Swiss Glasscoat seems interesting. I need time to study it in detail, but definitely it is a good pick.
      Will have it in my close radar and keep you updated on the same. Thanks.

      GRM overseas seems undervalued, but don't see anything attractive in the company.

      Regards,
      Kunal

      Delete
    2. Also, please share your views on rapicut carbide.

      Thanks
      Rupali

      Delete
    3. Please specify what do you like about the stock..
      Past 3 years seems to be absolutely flat in terms of sales... and declining in terms of profit...

      If I am not tracking a particular stock, I need data points, which I can use for analysis.
      So, please do provide the same for Rapicut...

      Delete
    4. The company faced two challenges. First, the mining sector from which majority of its revenues come from didn’t do well. Secondly, the main raw material tungsten is imported. Last year tungsten prices were at higher levels. According to management, there are only 4 companies producing tungsten Sandvik ,widia, electronica and rapicut. The other 3 are mnc's while this is the only indian company so we can say that it doesn't have much competition. The company gave bonus in last year. The company is undergoing a CAPEX plan of 5 year (FY12-17) worth 5.5Cr. (75% is a term loan from SBI @ 12.5% floating and rest through internal accruals). This is the result why the interest expenses has increased. Gathered this much only, will work on it more.

      Delete
    5. Please share your views on Panasonic Energy, a debt free company and results have been good.

      Delete
  14. hey Kunal, Granules is rocking every other day - I cant even imagin or think how much undervalueness remained...everytime i thought that rally will stop at 400 - 500 - 550 but look today it hit 600. Only thing I can do is hold it tightly, sit back n relax and keep SL in mind only :) what you suggest...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The stock is not far away from achieving its fair value based on earnings.
      But the stock price is not driven by earnings in previous quarter/year. It also might be driven by positive speculations on upcoming numbers...
      The promoters have been releasing shares from pledge, is another good sign, as it clearly indicates the management's intention of reducing the already high debt levels...

      Long term investors can continue to enjoy the rally, and hope that Granules will achieve the 4 figure mark some day, as expected by us during the initial analysis on the company.
      But I still don't agree with your disappointment over minor profit bookings. That's very much a part of portfolio management.
      Still, at the end of the day, its ones own decision. :)

      Regards.

      Delete
  15. Midcaps are rocking!!
    All fundamentalstockideas running fast!!
    Kunal, well done!!
    -Anand

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Kunal,

    Ricoh India and Gulshan Polyols were on the Upper Circuit today !!!! Heavy volumes traded to the tune of 4.60 lakh shares and delivery being high at 75% !!!! Gulshan Polyols also traded more than 15K and being T2T it can be considered to be good volumes !!!! It seems hiccups of RBB failure are over and Ricoh price movement is based on fundamentals and it's own merits !!!! Will not be surprised to see Gulshan Poly travelling into higher brackets :) Shall advise those holding to hold tight to enjoy further rides !!!!! However, based on one's own targets profit-taking is never denied !!!

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely.
      Frankly speaking, Ricoh India, took the U-turn much faster than my expectations.
      I was expecting at least 100 to be tested once, before investors start looking at the fundamentals, but in any case, its always good to see the stock moving on fundamentals, rather than driven by punters on specific news.. :)

      Delete
  17. Photoquip volumes were huge today. 21000 shares traded. Looks like promoters are buying again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Pratul,

      That might be the case, but still, I am not expecting anything from the stock price, unless the CORVI products show profits on annual basis.
      If things goes well ahead, I am expecting sales around 150 Cr this year...
      Just check out the latest pics uploaded by CORVI on facebook, and comments on it. That shows the gaining popularity among people and interest shown by various retailers in their porducts.

      Regards.

      Delete
  18. Hi Kunal & Pratul,

    Look at the revised statement for the period ended 31st March 2014 !!! It looks much better vis-a-vis March 2013 figures :D :D !!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi Kunal,

    What a market it was !!!! Gulshan Poly had an Upper Circuit today initially and when the market closed it was on the lower circuit !!!! It was a clear movement of 10% !!!! And SHP is out on Gulshan Poly !!! A gentleman called Bhupesh Kumar Lodha did lot of home work and was continuously busy acquiring shares during the quarter. He has mopped up 1.75 lakh shares representing 2.07% !!! Good consolidation has taken place during the quarter !!!

    Ricoh India traded like a hero with very heavy volumes of 6.65 lakh shares and delivery volumes also being very heavy upto 5.23 lakh shares !!!! With the entry of IDFC Fund for 5 lakh shares scenario has completely changed !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think, what can't derive any conclusion from today's movement, at least as far as Gulshan Polyols is concerned, because there was a complete sentiment driven market today, with entire small cap and midcap index falling 5%...

      Ricoh's volumes were very high but the delivery % raises the confidence, that more than traders, we have smart investors, who are galloping the shares at this cheap rate, fundamentally.

      Delete
    2. Hi Kunal, can you pls point me to the page or throw some light on ricoh India fundamentals? what factors makes it fundamentally strong? I never studied ricoh but will do goinf forward.
      Thanks, Mayur

      Delete
    3. Hi Kunal,

      Gulshan could halt it's downward march !!! Keeping in view low floating stock it has very limited down-side and can prove to be an opportunity for those who are yet to enter.

      However, Ricoh in an adverse market was locked in Upper Circuit @ 170.30 with good volumes traded in the first half of the trading session !!!! At this juncture I am uttering the same dialogue which I had stated for Gulshan Poly "Ricoh India lambi race ka Ghoda Hain" :D :D

      Delete
  20. Hi Mayur,

    Most of the details related to Ricoh India, has been discussed over here, in various post.
    Please use the search functionality to get all those important links regarding the company, that were posted here.

    Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Dear Kunal how are you......can you just provide your views on texmaco infra and texmaco rail which as fallen 40% recently.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am good... thank you...
      Sorry, not tracking any of them....

      Delete
  22. Any views on Control Print, if you track?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking it, but based on brief overview, it doesn't look bad either....

      Delete
  23. TCPL Packaging recommended a month ago, has appreciated almost 50% in past month.
    http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/06/tcpl-packaging-probable-candidate-to.html

    The stock might be close to its fair value, but long term investors can continue to hold for long term..

    ReplyDelete
  24. Can you plz provide fundamental view on caplin point lab.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  25. Caplin has commenced new plant. Debt zero. High margin products.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi,
      It is a good company to hold for long term, but the allocation to pharma sector was already too high, hence I avoided writing about this company.
      Otherwsie it looks good...

      Delete