1) Ajanta Pharma:
Writing about the stock since Sep 2012, its almost 2 years now, i.e. 8 quarters, that we got to study, and no disappointment so far. That speaks volumes about the performance of the stock in past 2 years, and also, the news flow in press releases of every quarter speaking volumes about the continuation of such performance going ahead as well.
By far, it has been the best performer in the portfolio, with a staggering returns of close to 500% since its recommendation. But the saturation doesn't seem to be coming soon.
For Q1 FY'15, the company reported sales growth of 32.5%, and net profit growth of 80%, which was again, above my expectations. Not sure about others though.
With an EPS of 16 in the quarter, that has always been slightly sub-dued for the company, it looks like they are on track to achieve an annual EPS of close to 85-90.
I know this is happening time and again, but with such a performing company, my views are bound to become more and more positive. Revising the target price to 2000 now for long term.
Recommending a (hold / buy on dips) strategy on the counter.
2) Camlin Fine Sciences:
Another decent performance from the company, and it seems to have formed a good presence among intelligent investors, with likes of ICICIDirect coming out with their research on such a small company. The jump in share price also indicate the same thing, as it has been given a fair value based on current data, with market cap of the company almost kissing 500 Cr.
However, on the other side, the positive news flow continues with their subsidiary namely CFS Europe S.p.A in Italy successfully enhancing its manufacturing capacity to 1000 metric tons per month as against 600 metric tons per month from May-2014 and the facility is now operating at its enhanced level of production after successfully running at its full capacity in the month of June-2014 and July-2014.
Sales grew by a modest 14% and net profit grew by 50% yoy, and the performance is likely to improve going ahead this year. Recommending a (hold / partial profit booking if reqd) strategy on the counter.
3) Dhanuka Agritech:
The Q1 numbers might look disappointing to few on first overview, but that was on account poor rainfall, in the month of June. However the company has been successful in improving margins, over past few quarters, and this quarter was no exception to that. In spite of meager 7% growth in sales yoy, the net profit grew by healthy 18%, which was the best part of mediocre results.
The company hopes to perform better in second quarter. The company has received registrations for two new, scientifically advanced products recently and they will be launched soon for the first time in India, for the benefit of the Indian farmers.
Being in India, and India being an agricultural nation, one should continue holding the stock, even at these expensive levels.
4) Dynemic Products:
Once again, it is among the companies, whose performance has been quite mediocre in Jun quarters, historically. Still, the performance this time, was slightly better than previous years. The sales grew by 16%, which was decent, however, profits growing by only 8%, came as a disappointment to many. I, probably, wouldn't mind that too much until the sales keep growing in good fashion. The good thing, was the rise in sales, in both, domestic as well as export front. Even after such a mediocre 8% growth in profit, the EPS for the quarter stood at 1.94. The number should improve in coming quarters, as I am expecting the company to post an annual EPS of atleast 10-11, which makes the stock look dirty cheap at a P/E ratio of 4, in highly potential business.
Recommending a buy/hold strategy on the counter, after detailed study, as it is still, a very small company, when compared to some of the others discussed here.
5) Gulshan Polyols:
After 5 major announcements made by the company last quarter, there was lots of expectations from the company to deliver strong set of numbers. But the numbers came in flat with sales growing only 3% and a declining net profit yoy. It came in to surprise of many, but this time, along with results, the company came up with press release, indicating the reasons behind such performance after big announcements. The benefits of new plant and technology up gradation are expected to be come in from second half of this fiscal.
Expecting the company to achieve 15-20% sales growth in this fiscal, by covering up in later part of the year, and end it with annual EPS of close 40. If that is achieved, the stock is expected to be re-rated from this levels, by about 75%.
Recommending a hold on the counter for long term.
Writing about the stock since Sep 2012, its almost 2 years now, i.e. 8 quarters, that we got to study, and no disappointment so far. That speaks volumes about the performance of the stock in past 2 years, and also, the news flow in press releases of every quarter speaking volumes about the continuation of such performance going ahead as well.
By far, it has been the best performer in the portfolio, with a staggering returns of close to 500% since its recommendation. But the saturation doesn't seem to be coming soon.
For Q1 FY'15, the company reported sales growth of 32.5%, and net profit growth of 80%, which was again, above my expectations. Not sure about others though.
With an EPS of 16 in the quarter, that has always been slightly sub-dued for the company, it looks like they are on track to achieve an annual EPS of close to 85-90.
I know this is happening time and again, but with such a performing company, my views are bound to become more and more positive. Revising the target price to 2000 now for long term.
Recommending a (hold / buy on dips) strategy on the counter.
2) Camlin Fine Sciences:
Another decent performance from the company, and it seems to have formed a good presence among intelligent investors, with likes of ICICIDirect coming out with their research on such a small company. The jump in share price also indicate the same thing, as it has been given a fair value based on current data, with market cap of the company almost kissing 500 Cr.
However, on the other side, the positive news flow continues with their subsidiary namely CFS Europe S.p.A in Italy successfully enhancing its manufacturing capacity to 1000 metric tons per month as against 600 metric tons per month from May-2014 and the facility is now operating at its enhanced level of production after successfully running at its full capacity in the month of June-2014 and July-2014.
Sales grew by a modest 14% and net profit grew by 50% yoy, and the performance is likely to improve going ahead this year. Recommending a (hold / partial profit booking if reqd) strategy on the counter.
3) Dhanuka Agritech:
The Q1 numbers might look disappointing to few on first overview, but that was on account poor rainfall, in the month of June. However the company has been successful in improving margins, over past few quarters, and this quarter was no exception to that. In spite of meager 7% growth in sales yoy, the net profit grew by healthy 18%, which was the best part of mediocre results.
The company hopes to perform better in second quarter. The company has received registrations for two new, scientifically advanced products recently and they will be launched soon for the first time in India, for the benefit of the Indian farmers.
Being in India, and India being an agricultural nation, one should continue holding the stock, even at these expensive levels.
4) Dynemic Products:
Once again, it is among the companies, whose performance has been quite mediocre in Jun quarters, historically. Still, the performance this time, was slightly better than previous years. The sales grew by 16%, which was decent, however, profits growing by only 8%, came as a disappointment to many. I, probably, wouldn't mind that too much until the sales keep growing in good fashion. The good thing, was the rise in sales, in both, domestic as well as export front. Even after such a mediocre 8% growth in profit, the EPS for the quarter stood at 1.94. The number should improve in coming quarters, as I am expecting the company to post an annual EPS of atleast 10-11, which makes the stock look dirty cheap at a P/E ratio of 4, in highly potential business.
Recommending a buy/hold strategy on the counter, after detailed study, as it is still, a very small company, when compared to some of the others discussed here.
5) Gulshan Polyols:
After 5 major announcements made by the company last quarter, there was lots of expectations from the company to deliver strong set of numbers. But the numbers came in flat with sales growing only 3% and a declining net profit yoy. It came in to surprise of many, but this time, along with results, the company came up with press release, indicating the reasons behind such performance after big announcements. The benefits of new plant and technology up gradation are expected to be come in from second half of this fiscal.
Expecting the company to achieve 15-20% sales growth in this fiscal, by covering up in later part of the year, and end it with annual EPS of close 40. If that is achieved, the stock is expected to be re-rated from this levels, by about 75%.
Recommending a hold on the counter for long term.
Any buy recommendation at the moment?
ReplyDeletepls suggest investment worth stock at CMP.
THANKS
sir is there any stock which has a story yet to begin in the next few years? are u thinking of any such idea? I have a wish to see the birth of a new wipro . please comment .ranjit adani
ReplyDeleteI think plenty of stocks already getting discussed here, are probable of giving big returns from current levels also....
ReplyDeleteEvery time, I write about the result updates, I enclose it with a message suggesting the strategy on it going ahead...
Among few others that I am looking at, I like Ganesha Ecosphere the most from the list, about which, I mentioned previously also.. Others in the list are Hester Bioscience, Swiss Glasscoat, Flex Foods etc...
Once I come to a conclusion, I will write a separate post on it, as I have been doing earlier..
If I don't put any new stocks here, it means that my study is not yet complete, or there are some parameters, due to which, I am holding myself to write on it....
All the best!!!!
Add TVS Srichakra to that list, who has been a consistent performer, and strong set of client list, but holding myself from writing on it, as it will again be from the same industry of auto parts. We already had Munjal Auto and Steel Strip Wheels from that sector off late...
DeleteYour view on force motors please?
ReplyDeleteIts a cheap stock, but that is because the performance in FY'13 wasn't up to the mark. The company seems to be recovering well. One can stay invested here.
DeleteHi Kunal, How about Indo Boax?
ReplyDeleteFew points - company's market cap lower than net current assets. Recent buy-back (at average price of 125) giving positive signs from promoters. Company with ten year record of paying dividends. No big debt.
Not a bad one.
DeleteBut, sales have been flat in past year on standalone basis, and a declining net profit. However, on consolidated basis, the sales numbers are decent...
I would wait for few more quarters before deriving any conclusion on it..
Still feel, Gulshan Polyols is a better option in same industry, with their strong client tele, and upcoming upgradations..
Your comments on Ricoh Q1 results.
ReplyDeleteResult Updates:
ReplyDelete1) Munjal Auto Ind:
Very decent set of numbers from the company with sales showing a good growth of 19% yoy. The profit was flat compared to last year. If one studies the result of Jun'13 against Jun'12, this quarter numbers looks good. Even sales were flat along with profits in Jun'13 numbers yoy. So some progress there.
Secondly on earnings basis, the stock was trading cheaply around 55 levels, which was the reason for recommendation, and it seems, it is still cheaper, with a P/E ratio of close to 12.
One can hold it for long term. No profit growth might trigger some consolidation, but it will overcome, and will be one of the top performer in its sector, in years to come, if growth cycle picks up well.
2) Ricoh India:
Entire hype around the stock was created by some of the big players recommending the stock in past quarter after the cancellation of delisting. Each of them were correct in their reports with whatever reasons they gave, and I don't this result proves them wrong, but it is a quite obvious to go for sell-off when company reports poor profit or loss, among the traders. The same happened with Ricoh India. The numbers are impressive if you are long term investors.
The company reporting a sales jump of 33%, which was by no means less, and infact, it was above expectations. I won't consider that loss as too big a factor, for my investment in the company, especially, with a brand name like Ricoh.
One can use the dips to enter here, if one has confidence in the company.
3) Manjushree Technopack:
Now, it is quite evident, why the promoters were on a heavy buying spree even when stock was trading around 375. The numbers came out to be excellent with sales growing 39% and profit growing 73% yoy. The press release is also encouraging, and lays down the path for further growth. The company successfully added 2 more clients to their existing strong list.
It is a hold for now, even after 200% rise from recmendation here and that too within 5 months:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/03/manjushree-technopack-packing-fmcg-food.html
Will come up with more details on each of them in a separate post later.
Some of the scrips we have to keep in reserve for superlative performance in the second half of FY2014-15 !!!! Gulshan Polyols and Ricoh India merits attention :-D
ReplyDeleteAn interesting observation : Ricoh India and Gulshan Polyols both are trading around 172 !!! Both have corrected from 210+ range in a short period of time !!! Which one is better :) Or neither of them is worth investing :( !!!!
Deletetotalview
Because both have disappointed investors with their numbers, but I don't seem to have any doubts regarding their future ahead as of now...
DeleteI would be a patient investor in both the cases, as you know... :)
Yes Kunal both are excellent multi-bagger candidates - one with a desi pedigree and other one a FOREN one :) Two to three years hereinafter they may be beyond the reach of small investor !!!!
Deletetotalview
Dear Kunal,
ReplyDeletePhotoquip is declaring its results on the 14th of august. They are are also meeting to conduct the sale/disposal/transfer of General Lihting Division undertaking. What do u understand by that?
I am in the same dilemma, will try to get in touch with the management on this, as soon as possible.
DeleteThis is the reply that I got from management..Looks like the company is not ready to reveal the exact plan until the actual meeting pans out.... We will have to wait till 14th Aug to find out more details..
DeleteGreetings to you too from the Photoquip family. Its nice to have you back, albeit after a long time.
As per the new provisions of the Companies Act, 2013, approval of the shareholders is required to be obtained by Postal Ballot for transacting business u/s 180 of the Companies Act 2013 for various business decisions. As and when an applicable business situation / opportunity comes up the Company will decide to implement the resolution. We will keep all shareholders posted on future developments in the matter, if any.
Hi Kunal & Pratul,
DeleteWe as a minority shareholder have to be very cautious on this issue and we should positively vote keeping in view our interest uppermost knowning very well that promoters are not at all investor-friendly.
totalview
Result Updates:
ReplyDelete1) Suven Life Sciences:
Another outstanding performance by the company, and again, it was above expectations. The sales grew by almost 30%, and net profit by 17%. As I mentioned earlier, the performance last year, was exceptional, but that was because of pre-launch quantities. So, to repeat that sort of growth in sales and profit, is impossible. Still, this quarter, the numbers were ahead yoy, which is very good.
This way, if company is able to post an EPS of 12 or so again, then at CMP of 120, I still feel it to be cheaper, when compared to some other companies...
Recommending a hold on the company for long term..
In the meanwhile, the stock has grown more than 5 times, since its recommendation here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2013/06/few-more-multibaggers-for-long-term.html
2) Plastiblends Ind:
Flat set of numbers declared by the company, which was below expectations, especially when stock had appreciated almost 100% in past 4 months.
Sales and profit grew by only 4% yoy.
The result might be taken very negatively by the investors, but still, would recommend a hold for long term, as I feel, there is lot more steam left, with company expecting to double the capacity by 2015. Patient investors can hold or even buy on dips, if any, after such results.
Kunal, Happy that i landed in your blog. I'm new to stock. Your blog is very informative. All your recommendations are very impressive.
ReplyDeleteCan you suggest me whether i can buy munjal auto, photoquip,suven life sciences at current price.
Munjal can be bought if you feel, the growth cycle will pick up in India, in coming years.
DeleteNobody knows that, its upto one's own belief. But if it does, that could significantly re-rate the company. Its a yes, if you ask me personally.
Photoquip India is difficult to predict, as the management's attitude towards minority shareholders is very poor. Even if the company performs well in coming years, nobody know if the stock price will starting moving upwards.
I would say, wait until their new venture CORVI starts making profit on yearly basis. Can keep a track, but avoid it for now, as far as investment is concerned, if you don't have risk appetite.
Suven has had a tremendous run up in past 1 year, but still, I feel it has lots of potential going forward also. It is operating in high margin business of crams, hence the profitability of the company will always be higher. I would still prefer to be an investor here for decent returns even from these levels.
The final decision has to be yours, based on your belief. I have just given my viewpoints.
Thanks for your detailed and clear reply kunal.
Deletesir , request u to make a comment between MINDA IND and JBM AUTO which to be considered better investment . please reply when u get time . thanks R adani
ReplyDeleteLike JBM Auto, can be held on for good returns..
DeleteLets see if numbers continue to impress, as company is declaring its Jun qtr numbers tomorrow..
Not tracking Minda Ind..
Sir,
ReplyDeleteMunjal auto bottom line was affected by tax expenses, tax expenses are huge, Q1 tax is higher than whole FY14. I was expecting some explanation from management.
I don't think management has taken an initiative to declare the reasons behind the rise or fall in profits, in their quarterly numbers, in form of press release...
DeleteAs far as the expense is mainly because of higher tax, we should not worry. It could be a case of advance tax payment also..
The EBIDTA margins as well as growth is very good for the quarter, when compared with its peers.
Thank you for reply.
DeleteHow is morepen labs
ReplyDeleteDon't think the numbers are bad, but I didn't like the balance sheet.
DeleteKindly go through it once..
Why has stocks fallen so sharply today?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking market movements on daily basis. My study is mostly stock specific.
DeleteBut I think the entire small cap index was down more than 2%, which might have been the reason for fall in stock prices.
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteHave a look at Linc Pen & Plastics !!! It's all the more important since you have to diversify the recommended portfolio also :-D
totalview
Had a look earlier, but not sure about the growth potential of that industry..
DeleteFinding it difficult to predict...
Kunal sir your View on Kopran, Bilcare and Alok Industries after there quarterly results as they were declared today??
ReplyDeleteKopran is decent company, and worth investing, but I personally feel, there are other better bets available in pharma sector at this moment. It might change later with performance of company going ahead.
DeleteRegarding Bilcare, I would say their steps on reducing debts will be very crucial for success. I think they have already started the process by divesting some assets. If they continue to find ways to reduce the debt levels, there is a possible re-rating.
Not a fan of textile sector, hence not tracking Alok.
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeletePhotoquip June quarter results are out !!! Your comments ! Further, all other proposals u/s 180 (1)(a) etc have been deferred !!
http://www.mydigitalfc.com/news/ricoh-aims-double-revenue-growing-indian-market-217
totalview
CORVI numbers continue to impress, with sales going higher once again, when compared to previous quarter..
DeleteThe expenses have taken a little break, and it seems, they should be back to profits by year end, if sales continue to grow in same fashion...
Hi Kunal Sir, any views on Dynemic, because its Q1 results are out, and annual report also. I feel at the present stock price of 42.7 it is a grab by both hands.
ReplyDeleteYes it is ...
DeleteResults led to slight downside, but things will be better ahead...