Saturday, January 31, 2015

Q3 FY'15 Result Updates - SSWL, Somany Ceramics, TCPL Packaging, Ajanta Pharma and Granules India

1) Steel Strip Wheels:

The performance of the company has been improving slowly, and it seems that the worst is certainly over, which was predicted in the original post here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/07/steel-strips-wheels-ltd-sswl-seems-to.html

The company again came out with decent set of numbers with sales increasing  by 7%. The sales figure didn't looked bad considering the decline in growth for the month of Oct on account of more holidays in that month with festival of Diwali and Dusherra. Plus there was a shut on account of elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. So overall, I feel numbers are looking decent. As per management, SSWL is looking at a volume growth of 16-18 percent for the full year and turnover of around 15-16 percent.
The company is likely to achieve an annual EPS of close to 25, so I don't think the stock is too expensive even at current levels. However, debt levels has been increasing because of nature of business and is the only worry right now. Promoters increasing their stakes is also a positive.

One expert view on the company is also shared on left hand side panel.

2) Somany Ceramics:

Though expensive, the company is growing stronger and stronger, and proving that the given higher valuations are justified, and there is further room for more growth in terms of revenues as well as market cap.
Sales were up by 31% and net profit up by 131%.
Not thinking of commenting much, but sharing few links which speaks a lot about the positives of the company:
Confident of achieving 20% growth in FY15
Somany Ceramics’ new campaign focuses on brand promotion
Somany Ceramics to add 30 mn sq metres capacity in 5 years, scouting for JVs
Swatch Bharat Abhiyan Will Help Sustain Growth — Somany Ceramics

Overall I am still positive on company's prospectus, but on account already existing higher valuations, it may take some time to reward further as far as stock price is concerned.

3) TCPL Packaging:

The stock has given unbelievable returns in very short time since its recommendation here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/06/tcpl-packaging-probable-candidate-to.html

The results after that has been fabulous which has led to this rally, and once again it did not disappoint. The sales went up by 28% and net profit went up by 169%. If one takes a look at past 2-3 quarters result, they have significantly improved their operating efficiency, which has reflected in their amazing growth in profits. An annual EPS above 30 this year is very likely now, and because of which the stock, even after such rally, is still trading at a P/E ratio below 15, based on expected FY'15 numbers.
At present valuation, I would remain neutral to positive on the company.

4) Ajanta Pharma:

I have no words to describe this company. As I said earlier also, this is one company, which a new entrant can use to learn as an ideal company. Sales once again grew by 21% and profit by 36%.
The company has been able to maintain net profit margins above 20% for past many quarters consistently, which further enhances my confidence in the company.
We have seen company growing from being a small cap to a mid cap company, and if the growth pattern continues this way, I am sure, we will see Ajanta Pharma as one of the major large cap pharma company of India.
Company has approved sub-division of equity shares from face value of 5 earlier, to face value to 2 now. I am still highly positive on the company and their future growth.

5) Granules India:

Flat numbers this time were expected as per recent management interviews, where guided 15% growth in FY'15, even after very good Q1 and Q2. To an extent, there was some production loss due to cyclone in Vizag. The sales grew by 13% and profit by 8%. Lesser growth in profit, was mainly on account of loss through Auctus Pharma.
As per management, Auctus Pharma is expected to post profit in next quarter. Also, they are expecting the company to grow at 26% next year. The Omnichem JV is currently going through clinical trials, and it expected to contribute about 50 Cr in next 2 years or so. This will be very important for the company as Omnichem JV is focused on CRAMS business, which is probably the highest margin business in pharma industry. Also, the company is focusing more towards Finished Dosages, and they are aiming to achieve 65% of their revenues for FDs in next 2-3 years, which indirectly, will improve their margins for standalone business as well.
Overall, if one has a long term view, the company is not trading at high valuation.

I have given my views on the results of above companies, but the decision whether to buy/sell/hold these companies depends on reader.

85 comments:

  1. good to see most of your companys performing well. congratulations.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Can 1 still buy ajanta pharma?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That should be your decision, but I am still positive on the company, and think it can still deliver steady returns going ahead, if not multibagger returns....

      Delete
  3. Hi kunal.thanq for ur time.
    Share ur view on
    Excel industrtries
    Ifb industries
    South Indian bank
    Suven life
    Ntc industries

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IFB is good company. It can give steady returns in coming years..
      Suven is already discussed stock on this blog since the time it was trading at 24 Rs...
      Check left hand side panel, for all the discussed stocks...

      Not tracking Others..

      Delete
  4. Hello kunal ji,,

    Can you pl advice about following stocks for long term?
    1) Hindustan tin works
    2) polyplex
    3) ashok leyland

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hindustan Tin Works is not a bad options, but I am not fully convinced yet. I have few concerns...
      Need to study further before giving you any conclusive answer..

      Not tracking others..

      Delete
  5. Please comment on camlin fine sciences?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Camlin Fine Science is already in discussion on this blog since 12 Rs (adj)..
      Please check left hand side panel for all the stocks in radar...

      Delete
  6. Your views on overall market sentiment at present?
    - Gaurav

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not tracking overall market trends...Only stock specific discussions..

      Delete
  7. Kunal, your view on Zicom? Specially their capital intensive model and its sustainability of such model.. Share your views.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to have a detailed look.. Thanks for the name..
      Will get back after checking few details...

      Delete
    2. Thanks look at its shareholding pattern carefully, could be godrej's next target :) watch YouTube videos, passionate people running it. -Anand .... I have only one question on it, sustainability of its capital intensive model. Want answer from you

      Delete
  8. Sir awaiting for ur next hidden gem.these days ur not giving much time to ur blog readers aka ur fans:):)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is necessary that i complete my detailed study before recommending any new stocks...
      Can't misguide readers to keep them happy with new picks without proper research... :)

      Delete
  9. Sir, what is your view on Suven Life Sciences?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Search previous post of this blog...
      check left hand side panel for all stocks in radar...

      Delete
  10. Hi KB ji,
    Are you traking Menon Bearings? What is your opinion on that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not a bad option... this year has been very good for the company after 3 flat years....
      Have it in radar, but need to investigate further, because of nature of business and competition surrounding it..

      Delete
  11. Dear Kunalji,
    E X C E L L E N T. only the word I can say for your analysis and the way you answer the queries on your blog. Today only I came across this Beautiful blog while I was searching for INDIA Toners and developers.
    Anything you can share on Imp Power, if you are tracking .
    With warm regards.
    Mahesh Vakharia

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Mahesh,

      Thanks for those lovely words....
      As you are new to this blog, you might not be aware that there are certain sectors, which I have avoided, because of some or the other reason, and power sector is one of them..
      Hence, won't be able to guide you on Imp Power...

      Regards.

      Delete
  12. Suven Life Sciences turns out to be the 2nd stock that has given 10x returns from the day, its discussion started on this blog here:
    http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2013/06/few-more-multibaggers-for-long-term.html

    ReplyDelete
  13. sir, what is your view about Indraprastha medical

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is a decent company...
      Not a bad option if one is looking for good long term investment...

      Delete
  14. Thanq very much . Happy you follow the guidelines set by you. I also avoid the sector where. Govt has interference ,like Oil, sugar ,govt psi bank etc. yet nice to meet you. With Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  15. why flex food is down today? I am holding it from 86rs. can I buy some more on this price? waiting for your reply.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think the results are bad...
      The only reason for the decline is severe de-growth seen in profit. Otherwise sales have grown by 13%, which is not bad...
      And even if someone is considering net profit as such a big factor, then, it is necessary to understand that for nine months that ended Dec'14, the net profit is up by almost 25% over nine months ended Dec'13...
      So, overall, I am still positive on the company for long term.
      Rather than quarterly numbers, I will wait for one more quarter, to find out how annual numbers look yoy, and based on that, will decide further course of action..

      As you might be knowing, I am not recommending any explicit fcalls. So that has to be decided by you..

      Delete
  16. Hi,

    Please share your view on holding munjal auto

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The numbers this quarter were disappointing, especially sales data..
      Profit was less on account of higher tax and finance cost, which is still ok..
      The stock has lots of other positives, which allows me to wait for some more quarters before changing my opinion on it...

      Delete
  17. Hi, ur view on Rajoo engineers after good December quarter result?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Will have to take a look in detail..
      Will get back once done..

      Delete
  18. Sir awaiting for ur next hidden gem, when u recommend?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can't give you the exact date, but as soon as my study is over...
      Hopefully soon..

      Delete
  19. Hi Kunal how celestial bio for long term

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Apart from this year, its growth is worriesome for past 5 years..
      ROE is tremendously low..
      Just 2-3 good quarters are not enough to predict a strong comeback after past 5 flat years..
      I would rather wait for some more time. Thats my personal opinion. :)

      Delete
  20. Hi Kunal. Whats your view on Narmada Gelatine, Plastiblends and Ganesha Ecosphere. I know you are positive on the latter two. However, Plastiblends is not putting up roaring performance as far as the bottom line is concerned. Do you think this will change in 2015. Ganesha looked like it was putting up a string of consistent results before the disappointing Dec quarter results. Any views on how 2015 might be for these companies

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Vikas,

      I will be posting details regarding Ganesha in next result updates post..
      Regarding Plastiblends, I think they are doing very well. Margins will always be under pressure for a company in such a sector. However, falling crude prices should benefit the company. We will have to wait for coming results to find out that...
      Overall, I am still neutral to positive, after almost 150% gains from starting thread here...

      Not tracking Narmada Gelatin, as of now..

      Delete
  21. what is your view on lincoln pharma and Bal pharma

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When the queries are asked regarding Pharma companies, I have a doubt, that why people want to go for so small companies, when there are so many better bets available in market, in small cap and even in midcap space...
      I am not sure how Bal Pharma, will turn in future, but certainly at this point, I think likes of Granules India, Suven Life Science, Aarti Drugs and few others are much better placed than Bal Pharma as far as fundamentals are concerned. If one doesn't mind taking risk, he/she can afford going for such companies..

      Lincoln Pharma is still better, atleast in terms of fundamentals, with slightly better growth and lower Debt:Equity ratio than Bal Phamra..

      However, these are only my views, and I may be wrong. Decision should be based on your belief... :)

      Regards

      Delete
  22. Hey Kunal,
    Hows is Garware Wall rope results in your views? though its kinda flat results QoQ but decent on YoY..but we witnessed selling pressures today..don't know what was teh expectation of the streets?
    pls share your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I liked the results.. Sales growing by close to 10% and profit by 45% is not bad at all..
      For the first 9 months, sales have grown by 18% and profit by 60%..
      The stock reaction post result is generally driven by traders, so can't much rely on that..

      Overall I am still highly positive on the company and its future prospectus..

      Delete
  23. Hi kunal.
    Ur views on ipca labs 1 year low,good luck steel,crompton greaves
    Regards
    Sachin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IPCA is under pressure temporarily... Patience might pay here as the company is not bad..
      Not tracking Good Luck Steel Tubes and Crompton Greaves...

      Delete
  24. Hi Kunal,

    Gulshan seems to have neglected all the good news which has come recently like nse listing etc etc..The list is big though... Why is the price refusing to move inspite of all these ? what is your views ?

    Totalview also welcome to share the views please.

    Thanks,
    Raghu.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Promoter buying close to result could be a big positive...
      Fall in crude prices should have some positive effect on overall margins..
      Lets wait and watch...

      Delete
    2. buying on the first day of NSE listing, seemed like to make some volume on the day 1 in NSE. As you said Lets wait one more week !

      Delete
  25. Hi, ur view on Mindteck india? is this company benefited by smart cities scheme and FDA clearance for a medical device?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi Kunal,
    The latest news is that TCPL Pack is coming up with a QIP to raise 63 cr. Will this not depress the stock price in the short to medium term. I am asking this because Mold-Tek pack was a high flying stock before the QIP came along and it went into long consolidation mode. I was considering an investment in TCPL Pack before this news came along. Your advice please

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jatin,

      Can't comment on any immediate movements after this news. It depends on various factors. I have also seen stocks moving up after QIP..
      Overall I am still positive on the company, but somewhere, have a feeling, that stock has moved up a lot in past 7 months, since its initial thread on this blog, when it was trading around 100...

      Delete
  27. Dear Kunal Sir ,
    Any guesses on Dynemic Products results ? Are you expecting some bad numbers this Q ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the sell off seen lately, is triggered by informed investor/traders, then it is possible..
      However, being a long term investor, I won't mind, if 1-2 quarters are bad, unless other fundamentals remain intact...

      Delete
  28. Sir, Your views on NIIT ltd and deepak fertilisers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Deepak Fertilizers is not a bad company..
      Not tracking NIIT...

      Delete
  29. Hello kunal sir,

    please share your views about following stocks which i am holding for long term. all these are much lower level from my buying price.

    1) Ybrant digital @54
    2) Polyplex@ 263
    3) vidhi dyestuff@21
    4) richa ind. @ 39

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on Ybrant's business, but not on sector.. Seems a bit risky, as I mentioned earlier also..
      Not tracking Polyplex and Vidhi..
      Richa has lots of concerns like too much variation in results and exceedingly high debt..
      Can be looked if these concerns are addressed by the company...

      Delete
  30. Hi Kunal , Do u ever have chance too look at Tyche Industries. The new operations will be commencing from next quarter . Do u think chemical sector can turn around in 1-2 yrs. I am hesitant on in-consistency in the profits. One of the public share holder is from reputed (?) Engg /Medical college in Hyd. I visited the location and its one of the costliest area in hyderabad . But not sure will the new ask them to move out to out skirts as they did for Aurobindo in the past.
    Not urgent but when ever u some time , could u kindly take a look at this company unless it is a blind pass.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will take a look, but for sure, the numbers this year are very disappointing..
      Any reasons for the same?

      Delete
  31. Hi, ur views on Samkrg pistons and Srikalahausti pipes?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Samkrg Pistons is a decent company..
      Not tracking Srikalahausti Pipes..

      Delete
  32. Hi, ur view on DHP india?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't find valuations too attractive, especially because of the industry..
      Also, the results this year, has been very disappointing...

      Delete
  33. Dear Sir, your views on V2 retail after the Q3 results . The company seems to be a very good turn around story .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So far so good... but still a long way to go..
      Not a bad option, for somehow having some risk appetite..

      Delete
  34. And the star of the day undoubtedly was Ricoh India counter !!!! Excellent topline and somewhat decent bottomline !!!! No wonder it resulted into robust volumes of more than 6.60 lakh shares and a very healthy delivery marked for 3.49 lakh shares.

    No wonder counter was locked at 20% ever since the results were posted on BSE website with a brief period of opening of the circuit to be again followed up with locking which continued till the end at Rs.344.20 It travelled and made the entire retracement of months together in a matter of minutes. This only shows the pedigree of the counter.

    Ricoh India has always produced excellent last quarter i.e. ending with March and it should be no-brainer that this time also it will not be an exception.

    It's bound to cross an annual turnover of more than 1500 crores !!!!

    Just an excellent hold and accumulate with every meaningful decline. It's a real blue chip in the making. Some one knowledgeable told me that it's another Honeywell Automation in the making. May take another 3 to 4 years. But will it not be worth waitng ? :-D

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/it-services-business-to-boost-growth-ricoh-india_1299197.html

      Delete
    2. Wah wah !!! Another Upper Circuit of 20% and share was at Upper Circuit since 11.20 AM. Robust volumes of more than 4 lakh shares but most of the trading was when the circuit was open. After UC hardly few thousand shares were offered for sale. At the time of closing there were buyers lined up for more than 104K shares.

      Delisting failure has been a boon to minority shareholders and unique case in Indian Stock market.

      Ricoh India closed at 413 undoubtedly all-time high and it's travelling in unchartered terrritory.

      totalview

      Delete
    3. Another day of very good trading volumes and delivery on Ricoh India counter. Upper Circuit was applied at 454.30 on two or three occasions but for a brief period. A total of 3.90 lakh shares were traded out of which 1.82 lakh shares are marked for delivery. It was a good day for traders and they could dabble a lot and keeping this view delivery percentage of 46.60 is excellent. What is more important that very good lots are being picked up at 425-450 levels. Clearly market sees "Achche Din" are ahead in 2015. However, in view of steep run profit taking can't be ruled out but the trend is clearly up.

      totalview

      Delete
  35. http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Ricoh_India_Ltd_110215_Rst.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  36. Hello sir. Sir your view on LKP Finance? kindly analysis and reply as early as possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, but difficult to predict the growth in such business...
      Can't help you much there..

      Delete
  37. Dear sir,

    could you give any update about prima plastics and hindustan media for long term?
    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Already expressed my views on Hindustan Media Ventures in comments section of below post some 8-9 months back:
      http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/06/tcpl-packaging-probable-candidate-to.html

      Use search on page functionality, to find out the exact comment...

      Still positive on it..

      Not much idea about prima plastics.

      Delete
  38. Good Morning sir, Sir myself is a investor in Pioneer Embroidery. Where i found a turnaround on card like Company reducing debt constantly, promoter recently increase stack around rs 19+, no pending FCCB, and even bottom line and top line turning positive on quaterly bases. sir do you find any room for investment in this company. Thanks you sir jee

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Growth this year has not been encouraging compared to past 4 years..
      Also, the sector itself is a big worrying factor..
      Apart from that, the positive you mentioned are looking good..

      In case where sectors are weak, decide your action based on your belief only.. :)

      Delete
  39. whats your current view on Flex food?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No change in view for long term as I don't think there has been any change in fundamentals....
      Sales are still growing well.
      In my opinion, profit booking on account of poor net profit number does not always devalue the stock as far as its fundamentals are concerned...

      Delete
    2. should I accumulate some at this price? I have some which are quite higher price.

      Delete
    3. That you have to decide..
      I can only help you in figuring out pros and cons, but final decision have to be taken by you..
      As such, I have not changed my opinion on it since the time I wrote about it first time...
      You can also refer for more details there..

      I have stopped giving any explicit calls from the when SEBI came out with law for research analyst. I know the policy will be enforced after May'15, but its better if I refrain from doing so, as I feel the spirit of SEBI's law is very good...

      Delete
  40. Sir, Please update on Astra - Microwave. There's Lots of Buzz that Defennce Sector will be benefited from the budget and People on MMB Board are coming up with 200-210 kind of target's till budget saying that the last time its dream run-up started before budget only and same thing will also happen this time. Really need your honest opinion?

    Disc:- I am holding it from 60Rs. from last 3-4 Years....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At present I don't see any undervaluation in the stock..
      It is just that the sector has lots of potential, which can drive the stock price going ahead if one is ready to wait for long term...
      Can't guarantee whats coming up in budget, so can't comment movement based on that..

      So overall, I would be neutral on stock, and expecting better performance in future...

      Delete