1) Ganesha Ecosphere:
After 2 flat quarters this year, we finally saw company posting good results on both revenues and profit front. In Q3, company posted 13% growth in sales and 37% jump in net profit. However, considering the overall pressure on markets, it was expected that such a result would be considered a non-event as far as price movement is concerned. There was a common observation in this quarter numbers, that if you give good results, your price will continue to be there or will see only mild negative impact on the price. However, if the posted numbers are weak, 20% downside is bare minimum that you will have lose. Obviously, it is a short term trend. Eventually, performers will be rewarded. The flatness in sales and negativity in profits for the first 2 quarters was mainly on account of major fall in crude prices over last year, because their product prices vary based on raw material cost, and crude oil is one of the major. The demand is going up by 10% annually, as per management, but if they are able to attract more customers, and improve execution, it will surely reflect on their numbers going ahead and eventually lead to better market price.
2) Somany Ceramics:
This company has been like Cera Sanitaryware, and can be considered as one of the better performing company in its sector. In sales term, it was very good to see that the company posted close to double the growth posted by Kajaria, which is considered the leader in the sector. Somany Ceramics posted 11% growth in sales and 26% growth in net profit. Time and again, government has put more and more emphasis on Swatch Bharat mission, which is likely to aid Somany Ceramics in future. Via QIP, company recently raised 120 Cr, which was mainly done to strengthen the balance sheet.
As per management, they are expecting to grow at 12% in FY'16 and then 15% in FY'17. Currently they are investing heavily in branding activities, which will strongly benefit them in long run. They are also strongly looking to expand their presence in tier II cities.
Overall, in Somany Ceramics and Cera Sanitaryware, I strongly feel that in even is subdued markets, decent growth will continue for both, especially because of their sector, where there is always a huge scope when your country is on path of becoming a developed nation.
3) Garware Wall Ropes:
Superb R&D team has led the company hit new highs in terms of their business expansion. Another company, where we saw a sudden jump in share prices, however, consolidated later on account of poor market conditions. Inspite of flat growth this quarter, the company still managed to post 43% growth in net profit yoy. The net profit for first nine months also stands at 45% over previous year, which has taken the EPS to 20.38 so far. EPS is likely to be around 25 for the year, which makes the stock cheap considering its business model, growth prospectus and other fundamentals.
Company looks good to post revenues around 850 Cr this year, and to achieve their expected target of 1000 Cr sales by 2017, if things goes well for them. More details about this company has been posted earlier on this blog.
http://www.newsvoir.com/release/garware-wall-ropes-captures-new-heights-in-the-geo-synthetics-sector-5671.html
Continue to remain positive on their business prospectus.
4) FIEM Ind:
Another strong quarter posted by the company at a time, when almost all the companies are facing challenges because of slowdown in demand. For Q3, it posted 27% growth in sales and 55% growth in net profit, which was way above expectations. The higher sales was largely because of 45 Cr which came from LED segment of the company, which used to produce meager sales till then. For first nine months, the company has registered a sales growth of 18% and net profit growth of 31%. They are likely to end the year with around 53 Cr net profit which will translate to an EPS of around 40-45, which makes the stock still trading at a P/E less than 20, for such a fundamentally sound company.
The company has setup a new plant in Ahmedabad for manufacturing of automotive lightings and plastic parts. It has started commercial production from 11th Jan 2016. Also their Rajasthan facility is undergoing expansion, which caters to LED products. In terms of their total LED bulb and LED street lights order, till Dec'15, they have not even supplied half of it yet, which speaks volumes about the scope left in this segment for them in future.
The only downside is still their heavy dependency on 2 clients, one is Honda and other is TVS. Both of them together forms about 70% of their revenues. Unless they keep on delivering quality products, I don't think even that is an issue. Overall, I still remain position on their prospectus.
5) PI Industries:
The stock after fighting so much against the overall market fall, finally gave up after company was not able to live upto the investors estimate for 2nd time in a row. In Q3, the company once again posted flat sales, but net profit was up by almost 17%. Once again, the company attributed the lower sales to deferment of payment especially in CSM segment, which is why investors were not happy as they gave the same reason for flat growth in Q2, and said that H2 for the year would be better, which didn't turn out to be in Q3 atleast. CSM segment was expected to post growth of around 20-25% this quarter, which turned out to be only 9% because of above mentioned the reason.
The company has cut its revenue guidance for the full year from 18-20% earlier to 11% now.
They have however, maintained the 18-20% guidance for the next year. The other positive being that their order book for CSM has gone up by 50% yoy, inspite of overall dull market. Their Jambusar plant phase II and phase III has been commissioned recently. Talking about negatives, slow down in domestic demand has been a huge factor. However, believing in the fact that rainfall is expected to be good this year, one might see demand coming back in domestic markets as well.
Fundamentally, still, it continues to be one of the better placed company in its sector.
6) Indo Count Ind:
Outperformance continues for the company with another strong set of numbers. The company posted 17% growth in sales and 45% growth in net profit, in a quarter where all the majors of the sector were able to post flat or negative growth. The shift in company's focus to higher margin business of home textiles has led to significant jump in company's margin, and if I am not wrong, this quarter saw the highest margin ever posted by the company. The shift will also help the company in maintaining the profit growth over next few quarters.
The company is likely to post revenues in excess of 2000 Cr for the first time and profit in excess of 200 Cr, which will turn out to be a great achievement. The company ranking recently elevated from 13th to 11th in Home Textile Supplier segment to USA. In terms of bed sheets supply to USA, they are currently among top 3. Both ROE and ROCE has continued to remain above 40% including the current year which is exceptional. If one needs to have a look at some more facts and details about the company, one can review their investor presentation in this quarter. It is highly informative.
Still remain positive as healthy growth is likely to continue.
7) Lincoln Pharma:
There were strange series of events that happened with this company after it was discussed here for the first time. The first time I took the name of this company, it was trading around 160 Rs. In few days time, I went on with the discussions of few new names with their Q2 result analysis, where Lincoln was one of them. At that time, it was trading around 225 Rs. And again in no time, it went straight upto 300 Rs. To make all the bullish buyers turn into bearish sellers, one news was enough. The news said that Tanzania banned Lincoln Pharma's bacteria fighting injection in the country. As per the management, this was one of their major revenue generator. The stock which was already dispatched was also asked to be kept on hold and destroy. Due to this their raw material and packaging material for the same had piled up in their factory and is finally going as loss to the company. The language used in putting this notice seemed to be rude, especially when it was coming from company's management.
One more thing, in the Q3 result press release, it was mentioned that "Since the revenue from different segment is less than 10% of total revenue, segment wise results are not given."
If it is so, than why they feel the ban of one injection could affect their revenues so much.
However, because of the same news, the company lost almost 50% of its market cap from highs.
When Business Line had chat with management, they informed that "The ban came due to technical and administrative reasons. There was nothing wrong with the quality of the product. The registration of this particular product was due for renewal last month. We could not do it on time. We have taken up the action for renewal. The ban is not going to affect the overall business of the company in the African region."
After all the drama ended, the company came out with spectacular numbers. The company reported 67% jump in sales and almost 150% growth in net profit. However, till then that markets started its major fall, and it remained as a non-event in terms of price changes.
It will be interesting to see how Q4 pans out. Till then, safe investors could stay away, as I think there seems to be some management concerns in the company.
Discloure:
I am not a research analyst, nor an investment advisor. Through this post, I am only putting my views, and which has nothing to do with any action that can be taken by readers on any specific company.
After 2 flat quarters this year, we finally saw company posting good results on both revenues and profit front. In Q3, company posted 13% growth in sales and 37% jump in net profit. However, considering the overall pressure on markets, it was expected that such a result would be considered a non-event as far as price movement is concerned. There was a common observation in this quarter numbers, that if you give good results, your price will continue to be there or will see only mild negative impact on the price. However, if the posted numbers are weak, 20% downside is bare minimum that you will have lose. Obviously, it is a short term trend. Eventually, performers will be rewarded. The flatness in sales and negativity in profits for the first 2 quarters was mainly on account of major fall in crude prices over last year, because their product prices vary based on raw material cost, and crude oil is one of the major. The demand is going up by 10% annually, as per management, but if they are able to attract more customers, and improve execution, it will surely reflect on their numbers going ahead and eventually lead to better market price.
2) Somany Ceramics:
This company has been like Cera Sanitaryware, and can be considered as one of the better performing company in its sector. In sales term, it was very good to see that the company posted close to double the growth posted by Kajaria, which is considered the leader in the sector. Somany Ceramics posted 11% growth in sales and 26% growth in net profit. Time and again, government has put more and more emphasis on Swatch Bharat mission, which is likely to aid Somany Ceramics in future. Via QIP, company recently raised 120 Cr, which was mainly done to strengthen the balance sheet.
As per management, they are expecting to grow at 12% in FY'16 and then 15% in FY'17. Currently they are investing heavily in branding activities, which will strongly benefit them in long run. They are also strongly looking to expand their presence in tier II cities.
Overall, in Somany Ceramics and Cera Sanitaryware, I strongly feel that in even is subdued markets, decent growth will continue for both, especially because of their sector, where there is always a huge scope when your country is on path of becoming a developed nation.
3) Garware Wall Ropes:
Superb R&D team has led the company hit new highs in terms of their business expansion. Another company, where we saw a sudden jump in share prices, however, consolidated later on account of poor market conditions. Inspite of flat growth this quarter, the company still managed to post 43% growth in net profit yoy. The net profit for first nine months also stands at 45% over previous year, which has taken the EPS to 20.38 so far. EPS is likely to be around 25 for the year, which makes the stock cheap considering its business model, growth prospectus and other fundamentals.
Company looks good to post revenues around 850 Cr this year, and to achieve their expected target of 1000 Cr sales by 2017, if things goes well for them. More details about this company has been posted earlier on this blog.
http://www.newsvoir.com/release/garware-wall-ropes-captures-new-heights-in-the-geo-synthetics-sector-5671.html
Continue to remain positive on their business prospectus.
4) FIEM Ind:
Another strong quarter posted by the company at a time, when almost all the companies are facing challenges because of slowdown in demand. For Q3, it posted 27% growth in sales and 55% growth in net profit, which was way above expectations. The higher sales was largely because of 45 Cr which came from LED segment of the company, which used to produce meager sales till then. For first nine months, the company has registered a sales growth of 18% and net profit growth of 31%. They are likely to end the year with around 53 Cr net profit which will translate to an EPS of around 40-45, which makes the stock still trading at a P/E less than 20, for such a fundamentally sound company.
The company has setup a new plant in Ahmedabad for manufacturing of automotive lightings and plastic parts. It has started commercial production from 11th Jan 2016. Also their Rajasthan facility is undergoing expansion, which caters to LED products. In terms of their total LED bulb and LED street lights order, till Dec'15, they have not even supplied half of it yet, which speaks volumes about the scope left in this segment for them in future.
The only downside is still their heavy dependency on 2 clients, one is Honda and other is TVS. Both of them together forms about 70% of their revenues. Unless they keep on delivering quality products, I don't think even that is an issue. Overall, I still remain position on their prospectus.
5) PI Industries:
The stock after fighting so much against the overall market fall, finally gave up after company was not able to live upto the investors estimate for 2nd time in a row. In Q3, the company once again posted flat sales, but net profit was up by almost 17%. Once again, the company attributed the lower sales to deferment of payment especially in CSM segment, which is why investors were not happy as they gave the same reason for flat growth in Q2, and said that H2 for the year would be better, which didn't turn out to be in Q3 atleast. CSM segment was expected to post growth of around 20-25% this quarter, which turned out to be only 9% because of above mentioned the reason.
The company has cut its revenue guidance for the full year from 18-20% earlier to 11% now.
They have however, maintained the 18-20% guidance for the next year. The other positive being that their order book for CSM has gone up by 50% yoy, inspite of overall dull market. Their Jambusar plant phase II and phase III has been commissioned recently. Talking about negatives, slow down in domestic demand has been a huge factor. However, believing in the fact that rainfall is expected to be good this year, one might see demand coming back in domestic markets as well.
Fundamentally, still, it continues to be one of the better placed company in its sector.
6) Indo Count Ind:
Outperformance continues for the company with another strong set of numbers. The company posted 17% growth in sales and 45% growth in net profit, in a quarter where all the majors of the sector were able to post flat or negative growth. The shift in company's focus to higher margin business of home textiles has led to significant jump in company's margin, and if I am not wrong, this quarter saw the highest margin ever posted by the company. The shift will also help the company in maintaining the profit growth over next few quarters.
The company is likely to post revenues in excess of 2000 Cr for the first time and profit in excess of 200 Cr, which will turn out to be a great achievement. The company ranking recently elevated from 13th to 11th in Home Textile Supplier segment to USA. In terms of bed sheets supply to USA, they are currently among top 3. Both ROE and ROCE has continued to remain above 40% including the current year which is exceptional. If one needs to have a look at some more facts and details about the company, one can review their investor presentation in this quarter. It is highly informative.
Still remain positive as healthy growth is likely to continue.
7) Lincoln Pharma:
There were strange series of events that happened with this company after it was discussed here for the first time. The first time I took the name of this company, it was trading around 160 Rs. In few days time, I went on with the discussions of few new names with their Q2 result analysis, where Lincoln was one of them. At that time, it was trading around 225 Rs. And again in no time, it went straight upto 300 Rs. To make all the bullish buyers turn into bearish sellers, one news was enough. The news said that Tanzania banned Lincoln Pharma's bacteria fighting injection in the country. As per the management, this was one of their major revenue generator. The stock which was already dispatched was also asked to be kept on hold and destroy. Due to this their raw material and packaging material for the same had piled up in their factory and is finally going as loss to the company. The language used in putting this notice seemed to be rude, especially when it was coming from company's management.
One more thing, in the Q3 result press release, it was mentioned that "Since the revenue from different segment is less than 10% of total revenue, segment wise results are not given."
If it is so, than why they feel the ban of one injection could affect their revenues so much.
However, because of the same news, the company lost almost 50% of its market cap from highs.
When Business Line had chat with management, they informed that "The ban came due to technical and administrative reasons. There was nothing wrong with the quality of the product. The registration of this particular product was due for renewal last month. We could not do it on time. We have taken up the action for renewal. The ban is not going to affect the overall business of the company in the African region."
After all the drama ended, the company came out with spectacular numbers. The company reported 67% jump in sales and almost 150% growth in net profit. However, till then that markets started its major fall, and it remained as a non-event in terms of price changes.
It will be interesting to see how Q4 pans out. Till then, safe investors could stay away, as I think there seems to be some management concerns in the company.
Discloure:
I am not a research analyst, nor an investment advisor. Through this post, I am only putting my views, and which has nothing to do with any action that can be taken by readers on any specific company.
Can we buy any of these at current rate?
ReplyDeleteThe answers are implicit in respective post... That's the max that i can help you at the moment... With new guidelines...
DeleteAjanta Pharma Receives US FDA Approval for Almotriptan Malate Tablets
ReplyDeletehttp://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/73FA9C21_8E5A_4369_B8EE_5CAE1BF6E156_101016.pdf
1) Ajanta Pharma Announces the Launch of Levetiracetam Tablets
ReplyDelete2) Suven Life Sciences secures three (3) Product Patents in China, Eurasia and Hong Kong
3) Dhanuka Agritech has received a 'Licence to manufacture Insecticides' form Joint Director of Agriculture (Plant & Protection), Rajasthan for the Manufacturing unit of the Company situated at Keshwana, Kotputli (Jaipur), Rajasthan
4) Plastiblends India Ltd has successfully commenced commercial production in the new manufacturing unit at Palsana, Surat (Gujarat) w.e.f. March 25, 2016.
5) SSWL bags Euro 15 Mln business from PSA Peugeot Citroen
6) Somany Ceramics - Expansion of Kassar plant (Bahadurgarh) of the Company to produce 4 million square meters of Glazed Vitrified Tiles annually is successfully completed and commercial production has commenced from March 28, 2016 ahead of its scheduled timeline in Q1 of FY 2017. The total capacity of the manufacturing of Kassar (Bahadurgarh) plant post expansion has become 17.13 million square meters per annum.
7) FIEM Ind received award from Honda Motorcycles for their strong cost reductions efforts in 2015-16
8) Indo Count Ind has launched 3 New Brands in US Market
Dear Kunal, What is your view on Ricoh India latest development being company has sent its MD & many other on paid leave is this can be an risky to invest in this company for now or we should wait.Regards
ReplyDeleteIt is better to wait for the outcome now, if you are looking for fresh entry. The results related issues are not looking good at present, but I don't sense some fraudulent activities, looking at their history and their presence. However, you can never be so sure about anything.
DeleteLet's wait for the completion of Limited Review activity and check results for the past 2 quarters before taking any further actions.
Hi Kunal...
ReplyDeleteSSWL may turns out to be outstanding bet in comig years the way things are progressing...
- New plant in Dapper starts production, will be reflected from Q1 2017
- Highest sales volumes in Mar 2016, beating Feb 106. The highlight has been a whopping 46% jump in exports sales yoy and 33% jump in lCV & MHCV segment
- as u mentioned, Bags 15mn Euro business from Peugeot
Hi Mayur,
DeleteGood to see you after long time!!!
It is still out of my understanding on why this sort of valuation is giving to such a company..
Even margins have improved significantly over past 3-4 quarters..
The only worry used to be their debt levels, which I think has not been increasing since past 2 years, while their reserves are... So the ratio of debt to equity is also improving...
Promoters have bought almost every quarter..
The kind of orders that are getting repeated from such huge companies and that too for long term, speaks loudly about their satisfaction from the products of SSWL..
Not sure what is stopping it from surging ahead... :)
Ricoh India looks like gone case, management is not bothered at all to clarify all doubts over their accounting and results updates...God save all invested investors. Thanks got I exited with 18% loss!
ReplyDeleteTime will answer all the questions..
DeleteIt is very tough to believe such a company being involved in fraudulent activities, if any..
Eagerly waiting for further updates..
On contrarian side, do u see any opportunity in Ricoh if price drops around 250-270 levels?
DeleteNow, it is not about price at all... It is not a case of company being expensive or cheap..
DeleteIt is more about how things unfold going ahead..
If one is so sure that nothing wrong is expected as outcome, then even this is not a bad price... On the other hand, if something wrong is found out, then 250 will also be too much..
In my opinion, it is better if we wait for some outcome before taking any action..
Few are also speculating the fact that since parent company is silent on the issue, it seems that they want the price to come down further, and then give one more try of delisting Ricoh India...
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view on Patels Airtemp?
Last quarter was a surprise, but that was more or less because of slow down in demand... Once growth cycle returns, we might decent growth returning...
DeleteIn such small companies, it is always difficult to predict growth for long term, but still positive as of now..
Other positives about Patels Airtemp
Delete1. Promoters are aggressively increasing their stake quarter on quarter
2. Not a single share of this company is pledged.
3. Company has been declaring dividend every year
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on the following:
a) Geecee ventures
b) Nitin spinners
c) RSWM
d) Gokaldas exports
Regards
Anshul
In Nitin Spinners and RSWM, I don't think if there is any value unlocking left at present. However, both of them are decent companies.
DeleteNeed to check the other 2..
Hello Kunal,
ReplyDeleteDo give some views on Poddar pigments please
Positive on the company. Not many major players in this industry apart from Plastiblends Ind, which is already discussed stock here and trading at much higher valuations than Poddar Pigments..
DeleteHey Kunal,
ReplyDeleteSSWL posted very good results. Cheers!!
Net profit is up by 54% at a quarterly level and 55% in a yearly level.
EPS too has expanded to 39.9 levels compared to 25.8 levels last year. With the new EPS now the PE comes to around 10.5.
Cheers!!!
DeleteThe numbers are excellent..
The sales numbers are not exactly comparable yoy, because of change in raw material prices which directly affects what they charge to clients..
The volume growth posted by company every month looks excellent..
Plus winning big orders has become routine for them apart from other ongoing long term orders to some quality clients...
Execution has improved quite well over the past year, which is reflected in their margin improvement...
They have also made sure, since past 3 years that their debt levels are not increasing at a pace it used to increase earlier, considering the kind of business they are in..
Dear Kunal, Happy Birthday. I wish you well and I hope all your birthday wishes come true!
ReplyDeleteThank you so much Sameer!!!! :)
DeleteBelated Happy B'day Kunal...may your stocks picks and portfolio makes u millionaire!!
DeleteThanks Mayur!! :)
DeleteSee Kunal...Finally SEBI suspended trading of Ricoh India from 26th May (date not sure)...Investors have trapped badly and i dont think LC will open soon...
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing any opinions from TOTALVIEW now? Has is exited his holdings or stopped tracking...sometimes this is what we have to pay when we over confident on management intigrity by keep saying...let it come down will add more...and keep fooling out hearts...#RIP Ricoh India
**Sorry for my harsh words but m very disappointed by promoters...
Hi Mayur,
DeleteIf you remember your last query, I did mention that better wait for outcome rather than deciding the price at which the stock becomes attractive.
Secondly, I don't agree with you on speaking negatively about totalview. He is a great analyst.
The situation was not under control of anyone.
Also, not to forget the suspension is depending on whether the company complies with the regulation by 20th May. If yes, then no suspension would be there.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-news/bse-suspends-tradingricoh-india-stockmay-26_6531761.html
Better wait for this series of events to get over before concluding anything.
Agree, I know Totalview is great person...but he's not reachable anywhere..i mesged him on MMB but didnt get reply...it was specific to Ricoh only..no offence...I would be more than happy if comes back..sorry again for remark...it was out of agression...nothing more personal...Cheers
DeleteBelated happy bday kunal sir
ReplyDeleteThank you :)
DeleteHi Kunal, your take on below stocks?
ReplyDelete1. GSFC
2. Inox Wind
3. Cox n Kings
4. Trident
Thanks
Mayur
Positive on Cox & Kings with longer term perspective..
DeleteIn case of Inox Winds, I think you can once compare it with Torrent Power (though slightly different) once, and then take a call. Not a fan of this sector as such...
Again Trident is huge and established company. It has shown signs of stagnancy in growth in past few years. In this sector, I am only tracking Indo Count which seems to be very well placed with expanding margins, good growth and improving balance sheet, apart from Garware Wall Ropes, which is not exactly but still can be considered in Textile sector.
Not tracking GSFC.
Hi Kunal, Please suggest which one you like from following pharma stocks for long term investment (preferable 1 or 2 names only):
ReplyDeleteAarti drugs, Granules India, Suven Life, Lincoln Pharma and Shilpa Medicare.
Regards,
Venu.
Out of the names listed, I am tracking only Suven Life Sciences, Granules India and Lincoln Pharma...
DeleteThe last 2-3 post on this blog were about Q3 Result Updates.
There I have given my views on all the 3 names...
Hope that helps!!!
Hi Kunal, your views on Surana Solar ?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking the same..
DeleteDear Mr.Kunal,
ReplyDeleteCan I hold or sell lincoln which was bought at 175, I am a long termer wants to park money atleast 3 to 5 yrs?
Rgds
Ganesh
The news flow which hammered the stock price from 300 to 150 levels, is about to show its effect in Mar qtr numbers...
DeleteBetter wait for the numbers before taking any action..
Right now, until the details of impact are out, it is tough to comment on the action that can be taken..
Thanks a lot Mr.Kunal for your quick response,Lincoln forms around 60% of my portfolio , Also I hold Chaman lal setia @ 65 (20 % alloc) , Coral Lab @ 600 (15 %) and NGL Fine Sci @ 300 (5% alloc) , I am yet to make any profits . What are your views as the entire pharma is in crisis, What is the long term prospectus of Pharma for next 3 to 5 yrs?
DeleteRgds,
Ganesh
Frankly speaking, I am not a fan of such allocation model..
DeleteI restrict my portfolio in a way, that I don't have more than 20% allocation in 1 company. Even when I am damn sure about future prospects, I still restrict myself, because you never know what can happen with even the best. One bad event could take any stock to any levels and from where, the comeback to same old levels becomes tough.
We have already seen worst happening with some of the best in their respective industries, like Kitex Garmanets, Marksans Pharma, Ricoh India and Vaibhav Global to name a few. These were some day considered as model stocks and now they are struggling to prove their worth. Hope they all recover and get back to their glory days.
You can refer to Risk vs Reward story to get more on this.
But I hope you get the jist of what I mean.
However these are strictly my views.
Please take your own decision on it or after consulting your advisor.
I agree with your point of restricting max 20% allocation on one stock. Gradually I plan to diversify. What is your view on Srikalahasti pipes , I wonder such high ROE , whether is it possible to have similar return ratio's down the line. And one more stock Orbit Exports seems to be good. Also can you suggest fundamentally sound stocks for long term investment,
DeleteThanks,
Ganesh
Like SriKalahasti Pipes..
DeleteNot tracking Orbit Exports..
Kunal, indocount is falling for the past month? Is there any reason for the fall? If not it makes the share even more attractive..
ReplyDeleteNot aware of any negatives.... I am still positive on their growth prospects...
DeleteAs the Lincoln's Q4 is just released can you please share your views? Whether Lincoln can be held for long term investment?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Ganesh
Result was excellent but now that raises even more doubts on transparency of management. Just go through the post of ban in Tanzania which was release in Jan'16 by the company, where they mentioned that the ban could impact their profits heavily, whereas the previous year data suggested that the impact isn't going to be huge, and that's how it finally panned out. There was no major impact as such. So in a way, one can assume that it was promoters trick on bringing the stock price under control, as it had rose by about 100% within few weeks that time.
DeleteThis is not at all expected from a good management.
However, the results are good, and on basis of performance, I continue to remain positive on the counter. It will be interesting to see how big investors sees these events, and what sort of valuations are given to this company.
Thanks for your view on Lincoln, I too beleive the same ,why the management want's to keep the share price low? Nowadays there is a slight shift from the Defensive like pharma to other cyclical by investors, whether this trend will continue for long? My portfolio is heavily tilted towards pharma, where the pe is being derated heavily.
DeleteAs I said earlier also, I am not a fan of heavy allocation to one sector..
DeleteHowever, let me remind you that over past 5 years or so, Pharma has been the most rewarded sector among all. Somewhere the rally has to stop. That may be temporary though. But you can't expect one sector to rally continuously for years.
On the other hand, if there would have been the situation that the country's growth is not coming back, these defensive sectors might have continued to rally, but off-late, we have seen growth returning, and with the forecast of good monsoon ahead, it is likely to enhance further.
In such a situation, cyclicals become attractive and for investments there, money has to come from somewhere. For that, you have to figure out which sector has given you maximum appreciation over past few years, which has to be pharma for past 5 years, and hence, money has to come out from that sector for investments in cyclicals now, as at least for short term, it seems that cyclicals might give you good returns looking at the probable growth in near future.
This doesn't mean that pharma is no more attractive. The selective companies, which might outperform its peers, will surely be given appreciation in times to come.
Overall, you might see more appreciation in cyclicals rather than defensives in good times for the country, but you are not sure for how long it will continue. Hence you need to have a good blend of stocks from both.
Regards.
These are strictly my views, and as you are aware I am not an expert. So just take it as my personal views and not as general analysis on Indian Markets. :)
DeleteThanks for your views, you mentioned rightly to have a diversified portfolio.In the cyclical space I am interested in KNR and Ion exchange any other better cyclical can you suggest?.I need to exit or reduce Lincoln to switch over to cyclical .But I am bit reluctant to exit Lincoln which seems to be growing around 25 Cagr.
DeleteHello Mr.Kunal I am still invested in Lincoln, after this recent quarter what the future holds for Lincoln?
DeletePlease post your queries in latest thread. Would be easy to track and reply.
DeleteRegarding Lincoln Pharma, once again the results were above expectations and it certainly does deserve much more than 13 P/E. However, because of above mentioned reasons, it is be little difficult for company at least in short-medium term to go above 20 P/E.
No change in previous views. Numbers are expected to be good, and based on performance I continue to remain positive. Management will have to make efforts to impress investors after what all happened in Q4 FY'16, to have a strong re-rating in the counter.
can please explore about alembic pharma
ReplyDeleteCompany is good, but the unusual growth that was seen this year was mainly on account of gAbilify, which are not likely to sustain as there are few entries barriers for the same and accordingly prices are likely to reduce in coming years...
DeleteThe case is similar to Torrent Pharma, which is why you can see that both are trading at low P/E, based on this years data...
FY'17 will be important for the both the companies.
As such I am not strictly tracking Alembic Pharma, but somewhere I feel Torrent Pharma has more triggers for coming years, which can drive their growth in coming years ex Abilify.
Having said that, I did not mean Alembic is not expected to grow, but just that, I don't have much details at present on it.
Hope that helps!!!
Hi Kunal,
ReplyDeleteAny updates and analysis for the recent QTR end, eagerly waiting for your views on the stocks you are tracking.
Regards
Nev
Very soon..
DeleteActually, I was few things in personal life...