Saturday, February 14, 2015

Q3 FY'15 Result Updates - Ganesha Ecosphere, Flex Foods, Garware Wall Ropes, Camlin Fine Sciences, Munjal Auto, Dhanuka Agritech And Suven Life Sciences

Off-late, if one has observed, I have stopped discussing about Can Fin Homes and Dewan Housing, as both of them have now became a very stable organization, and they are likely to continue their good performance over the years, with their prices expected to continue giving steady returns over a period of time. Can Fin Homes was first discussed when it was trading around 140 Rs and Dewan Housing was first discussed when it was trading around 158 Rs here:
Since then, both have already given great returns. As both being very stable now, one can easily take his/her decision on these 2 companies.

1) Ganesha Ecosphere:
The result this quarter remained muted but that doesn't seem to be a big worry, as far as future growth is concerned. For the nine months ended Dec'14, the sales have grown by 35%, but profits have remained in check on account of almost 6 times higher tax and almost double finance cost. If one looks at EBIDTA numbers, then the profit has also gone up by 27% for first nine months, which is not at all bad.
On top of it, as per the press release, the company said that the commercial production of Recycled Polyester Staple Fibre (RPSF) has been started at Company’s unit situated at Temra, Bilaspur, Distt. Rampur (U.P.), w.e.f. 01.12.2014. The unit is having installed capacity of 21,000 TPA and taking this into account the consolidated RPSF capacity of the Company will reach to 87,600 TPA.
Also, the company gets further encouragement looking at the fact that the new jersey of Indian Cricket Team for the World Cup 2015 is made from recycled plastic bottles:
Overall, I continue to be positive on the company for long term.

2) Flex Foods:
Again, we have a company, which has kept on growing in sales, but failed to show good profits, which has got plenty of traders/investors go against it. However, once again, if we look at results of nine months, sales are up by 19% and profit up by 24%, which is again, not bad. The company is likely to end the year with EPS of close to 10, which will make it look very cheap at current market price. However, it is not necessary the investors will definitely reward it, on account of some poor reputation of management among investors/traders, but definitely it is worth considering for investment, if one has some risk potential.
For safe investors, it is advisable that they take their own decision based on their risk profile after looking at overall data.

3) Garware Wall Ropes: 
Good set of numbers posted by the company, except slightly lesser growth than expected. Sales for the quarter grew by 9% and profit by 45%. For the nine months, the sales have gone up by 18% and net profit by 60%, which is good going by the company, especially in tough sector.
Not much to comment or update here, as company seems to be on track. 
Still positive on the company.

4) Camlin Fine Sciences:
This company has been a revelation. It has certainly gone up way beyond my expectation, especially, after I first wrote about it in Feb last year. At that time it was trading at 12 Rs (adj to stock split):
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2014/02/camlin-fine-sciences-hidden-player-in.html
It is expected that the company will report very good consolidated numbers at the end of the year, and hence flat to positive standalone numbers were not affecting its journey. However, the standalone numbers this quarter did look amazing with sales growing by 19% and profit by 41%. This led to another rally in stock price, along with listing of company's shares in NSE, which added fuel to fire.
Good to see that company gave a highlight of consolidated numbers this time, which is looking decent.
It is tough to judge the stock at current market price, especially after seeing it go up by 8 times in past 1 year. However, based on its possible future growth and market share of its anti-oxidants, I continue to remain positive on the company.

5) Munjal Auto:
First time in many years, I have seen the company reporting flat sales, which raises few concerns. But there are lot many positives about the company, which forces me to be still positive on it before being judgmental based on just 1 quarter numbers.
The company has very reputed management with good client tele, They have very consistent profit growth for past 5 years. ROE over many years has been really good. Their approach towards investors by paying good dividend over the years and many more. All these data, keeps me still hopeful and positive about the company and its possible good growth in future.

6) Dhanuka Agritech:
Not much to comment about the numbers this quarters, as it is expected to remain flat. But still, the company does not fail to deliver at least some growth as far as topline and bottomline are concerned which is good to see.
On account of poor rain this year, the company cut its revenue growth guidance to 7-8%, which is fair especially after poor rainfall in most parts of the country this year.
On positive side, the company just launched one more product, which could cut the farmers cost by half:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/dhanuka-agritech-launches-herbicide-for-sugarcane-crop/articleshow/46200486.cms
Considering the fact that stock was recommended around 158 Rs, and it is now trading at 520 Rs with a high P/E, it would fair enough to assume that I would be neutral on stock.

7) Suven Life Sciences:
The stock has already turned 10 bagger since its first discussion on this blog here:
http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.in/2013/06/few-more-multibaggers-for-long-term.html 
The company has very strong fundamentals which has led to this rally, plus their concentration on CRAMS business, which is one of the most profitable business in pharma industry. The market capitalization of the company has already crossed 3000 Cr, which is good to see.
It seems that the stock has entered the league of safe stocks, which can be considered for steady returns with lesser risk.
However, after such levels of appreciation in past 1.5 years, it is advisable that readers take their own call based on their risk profile.

55 comments:

  1. Thank you for all those regular updates. God Bless.

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  2. Amazing set of numbers declared by Gulshan Polyols..
    Stock should appreciate further...

    However, Dynemic Products and Swiss Glasscoat posted below expected numbers, which seemed to be evident looking at price movement in last month or so...

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  3. Gulshan Polyols produces excellent quarterly results. Topline has gone up by 39% whereas bottomline has jumped by 64%. What is pleasing is that depreciation provision has gone up by 50% during the nine month period and interest cost reduced by more than 30%. Both will result in excellent cash flow. Will not be surprised if Company becomes debt-free in next 18 to 24 months. However, it may not happen as they have many projects in the Boardroom which will require funds. At CMP it's earnings are discounted by around 6 PE. A clear hold and if the market provides an opportunity to buy at dip clear accumulate. One should remember that floating stock is limited and any outbreak will give rise to disproportionate price. This is a stock where you can buy and sleep for three months to keep a watch on next quarterly results and review it.

    totalview

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    1. Another such quarter, and we can expect another great run-up like we had the one from 75 to 200 earlier..

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    2. On PAT parameter March 2014 was a good quarter because of very low tax provision and capping above it will be simply too good !!!! However, 2015-16 should be a very good year because of stabilisation of increased capacity of new initiatives undertaken resulting into increase in topline and hopefully bottomline. I expect 2016-17 to be still better in view of expected distillery venture becoming operational and Tiger series brands already launched getting established by then. If a distillery has it's own Brands in the market it's margins should be very good even they are able to absorb 50% of the production through their own Brands. Future is simply bright barring unforeseen......

      totalview

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    3. As expected Gulshan Polyols' counter responded well and made a 52-week's high of 254 on BSE !!! Combined trading at NSE and BSE was a good 51K and out of which more than 36K was marked for delivery. I expect another QIP/Foreign Portfolio Investment during 2015-16 from the Company. And the price may be upward 250+ and for this stock has to trade in the range of 300+ :-D !!!! Since they have declared a hefty 35% interim dividend we shall have to watch their dividend policy and March 2015 quarter result.

      totalview

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    4. Still not impressed with the stock performance on Monday, especially after such blockbuster numbers..
      The company will easily achieven an EPS above 25, probably close to 30 for full year..
      Difficult to understand why are trader/invstors hesitant in giving it proper valuation..
      Lets wait and watch..

      Delete
    5. Hi Kunal,

      I was just comparing the market price of 2007/2008 when it used to trade around 500+ Even 300/400 price range was for a fairly good period. And profitability, topline, quality of business were no way comparable to today's operations. This gives credence to your point that this counter is not only undervalued but severely undervalued. Beauty of the Gulshan Polyols is it's very small capital base, low floating stock (just around 15 lac shares in the market) and almost debt free status. And all units are modernised and have good capacity. I can also add that they have got very valuable land bank which exceeds 100 crores which is very near to Muzaffarnagar town(a prominent town of western UP). And above all Management is very capable, serious and technically competent to execute the projects. I intend adding more to my kity.... :-D

      totalview

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    6. Typo : Error Please read "Which exceeds 100 acres which...."

      totalview

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    7. And finally Gulshan Polyols met with heavy buying and both the bourses recorded turnover of more than 80K and more than 45K were marked for delivery. Price movements were sharp and it traded upto 277 !!!! In view of limited floating stock stock has the capacity to spurt as and when technically it warrants.

      totalview

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    8. Hi Kunal,

      Are you somewhat impressed with the price movement on Gulshan Polyols' Counter :-D

      totalview

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    9. Yes, the move is enough for me, for now..
      Wish we have many more such rallies in future if company is able to perform consistently...

      Delete
    10. And today Gulshan Polyols traded at a kissing distance at 300 !!! Traded volumes at both the bourses were moderate around 30K but it happens as the share had a good run up in the past 5 to 7 trading days and price has become high from 200+ to around 300 !!!! But a good change of hands has taken place and incidentally it recently got listed at NSE also which gave more visibility to the counter which was lacking uptil now. Now it's trading at trailing PE at around 10 and still has much more value keeping in view a multi-product diversified, multi-locational and top of the rung clientele. Nothing seems to worry at present.

      totalview

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  4. what to do with the companies who posted below expectation result

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    Replies
    1. If you are a short term trader, its better to take your own call..
      If you are a long term investor, I have already given my view on all stocks discussed above.

      Regards.

      Delete
  5. kunal ur views on

    Info edge,
    Inox leisure
    Genus power infra
    Hind tin works
    wabag

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Va Tech Wabag and Info-Edge are good companies and they have appreciated well in recent times...
      Infact Info-Edge is very close to being a 10000 Cr company now..
      Regarding Hin Tin Works, I am not quite impressed by its past numbers. Not sure whats coming up in future, but at this price i would be neutral on it...
      Not tracking other 2...

      Delete
  6. Sir ur view on v2 retail.orchid chemicals.math bio science's

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Slightly positive for turnaround in V2 Retail...
      Orchid is risky..
      Not tracking Nath Bio Genes (if you are talking about that co)

      Delete
  7. Hi Kunal , Infinite came up with very good numbers this time . Is there any company specific reason you have exited from counter at 150? In 2-3 yrs view, Can't infinity be a good option? Please advise as I don't find any in IT which are decent valuations.
    Thanks
    Sridhar

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't like investing in IT service industry, as the nature of business makes it difficult to predict their growth....
      Infinite was highly undervalued at one stage, when its numbers were improving consistently, and it was trading around 80 Rs...
      At that time, it went upto 150 within short period and then I felt, it was fairly valued at that time, and hence made decision to quit..
      After that, I haven't looked at it much, so will have to check again, if there is any undervaluation now...

      Delete
  8. Hai Kunal Gulshan has come out with excellent numbers but again did you notice the tax provisions at the lower side if full provision for tax is given will the np be at 21/22 cr . Also the Madhya Pradesh pollution control board has not cleared there distillery project still any idea.
    Associated ALCHOLOL has come out with a good set of numbers looks good should it be advisable to wait for fy 15 annual report or take a little exposure
    Can you please have a look at Sankya infotech the verticals the company is invovled is good like defence transport and education the dec qtr result gives a indication of improvement in opm and revenue can it be a turn around story your view pl. Regards

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    Replies
    1. Give me some time, will take a look and get back on Associated Alcohol and Sankya Infotech.. Thanks..

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    2. your views on sankhya Infotech?

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  9. Hi Kunal,

    Please if you could suggest whether a fresh buy can be made in the following stocks? I want to make a core portfolio buying them.

    1) Asian Granito

    2) Mold-Tek Packaging

    3) Mindteck

    4) Sunil-hi tech Engineers.

    If you could also tell me about their future CAGR and growth prospects..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on Mold-Tek Packaging and Sunil Hi-Tech Engineer..
      Regarding Asian Granito, I like to go with brands in such industry, especially when country is moving to being a developed nation..
      As you may be aware, I have been following Cera and Somany Ceramics in same industry and I continue to be positive on them...

      Not tracking Mindteck..

      Delete
  10. Hi Kunal,

    I have a query regarding - Control Print. I too feel the huge potential in the company as well as the market it operates. The company has been generating good numbers which are expected to improve with the new plant coming up soon.

    I have a query regarding the non-current investments in Balance sheet for FY13 and FY14. They have purchased shares of Cairn energy, TV 18, Den networks and few other companies worth Rs 13 crore. Given an asset size of 114 cr in FY14, this is 11% which is quite high and looks as a matter of concern to me. Why is it investing in shares of non-related companies which are neither customers nor vendors? On the other hand it is running a huge inventory of 46 crore and sales is 92 crore. What could be a reason for high inventory consistently?

    Also, the net sales realization per coding machine sold in 2014 was lesser than in 2013. So, coupled with high inventory, can we draw an interpretation of growing competition or lesser than expected growth in coming years?

    Pls share your thoughts.

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    Replies
    1. Hi,

      I agree with all of your viewpoints but let me inform you that most of the questions asked can be best answered by management. I can share my opinion but it might not reflect the actual truth..

      Regarding question on inventories, they have already shared details on 62nd page of annual report 2014. They have shown break up of 46 Cr. I didn't get much doubts in that as their history of inventories have been like this, which reflects their business model..

      Regarding growth, their growth is closely dependent on packaging industry growth and the
      manufacturing sector growth as a whole, so lesser growth might not be an issue, but yes, high competition could be one of the factor.

      Being a very small company right now, we don't have conference call currently being organized for the company's management to share their views. Hence we ourselves have to get in touch of the management and get their views on it.

      Regards.

      Delete
    2. Hi,

      Thanks for your reply.

      I too feel their growth is tightly linked with packaging and processing industry. I tried figuring out competition in their core products - but apparently they aren't as widespread as Control Print is. Also, I feel the exit barrier is quite high. It is like a component in the whole manufacturing to packing process - with spares and inks being supplied by Control Print. So, unless, someone gets a very high performance machine with real value add, I think they will continue to enjoy the healthy revenues. (The major portion ~60% of revenue is from sale of consumables and spares - which should not come under threat from competition in near term).

      I have already mailed them for these queries - nonrelated investments and realizations going down per machine sale (inspite of having no real competition as of now). If I get any reply, will share with the forum.

      Regards.

      Delete
    3. Thank you so much.. that will be helpful for all of us here...

      Delete
  11. @Anonymous (raised points on Controlprint): Thanks for raising good points and do share the responses you get from the management. Do you also maintain any blog?

    @Kunal: Thanks for your posts and in detailed responses to queries

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  12. Hi kunal,
    Which one will you prefer for long term investment , DHFL or Gulshan polyol? I know both are different sectors completely, but still where potential is high with minimum risk?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't like answering such questions, because I equally like all the companies discussed here, but still, since you have asked, I feel that the potential is high in Gulshan Polyols because of lower valuations, but risk is lower in DHFL because of its brand & size...
      Choose your way.. :)

      Delete
  13. And it was another good day on Ricoh India counter !!! Stock was locked in Upper Circuit at 467.70 at 12.30 PM and remained locked till 3.30 PM. Since the stock was locked most of trading period traded volumes were low at 116K but remarkable point was that there pending orders for more than 105K shares at Upper Circuit. This counter also seems to have floating stock locked with Institutions and HNIs and they see much much higher price in ensuing period.

    totalview

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    1. PS : It's unparalleled in Indian stock market that a share which has failed twice in it's delisting attempt and has gone up more than three times in a short span of just eight months. Readers will recall that Acquirers refused to pay an Exit Price of Rs.225 and consequently shares were returned to tenderers. Thereafter, amidst heavy trading volumes it attracted repeated Lower Circuits and traded as low as Rs.112 and today it has closed at Rs.467.70 at Upper Circuit.

      totalview

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    2. And Ricoh India crosses 500 mark :) !!!! But there are many more centuries in store :-D

      totalview

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    3. Hopefully, unless the promoters again doesn't play a bet on delisting and give the stock price in hands of some freaky traders... :-)

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  14. Dynemic Products Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has undertaken and completed the expansion project in Unit I for manufacturing Sodium Naphthionate and N.W. Acid which are also basic raw material for the Company's product. The project has cost us Rs. 4.40 crores, the effect of which is seen in Finance cost of Quarter - 3 results. The commercial production of this expanded plant has been started.

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  15. Sir, do you have conference call details of mayur uniquoter for q3 results?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Available on ResearchBytes dated 16th Feb 2015...

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  16. Hello sir,

    Please share your views about ybrant digital and dcb bank for short term and long term. ybrant is going down day by day. my average price is 55 for ybrant and 115 dcb bank.

    pl suggest

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ybrant is in a very dynamic market (the buzzword being - digital marketing, but I dont see anything positive with the company, except the sector it is in.

      Broadly, it is an IT company with focus on digital marketing through multiple platforms. So, for an IT company, employee expense is the single largest head unless it is paying for some patents. In Ybrant's case, it is hardly 5% of the revenue!!! Doesnt it surprise you? Also, no payment for any patents.

      Another thing, the largest expense is miscellaneous expense. I checked into Annual report, but couldn't find any further details on this. What is this expense for? No idea.

      Finally, debt on the balance sheet of an IT company!!! Isnt it surprising. :)

      And, this link says well about the brand name they have now - Lycos
      http://corp.lycos.com/newsroom/media-coverage/from-lycos-to-ask-jeeves-to-facebook/.


      @Kunal : Your thoughts please.

      Delete
    2. I think I replied to you earlier as well regarding Ybrant, that I am positive on the overall sector, but not on any companies in that sector, as it is very highly competitive and one can continuously expect a new player coming in the industry, which eventually could lead to lower revenues and lower margins.

      I agree with most of the points mentioned in reply.

      The current downfall may be on back of some negative rumors floating around investor community, where there seemed to be a scare of some promoters selling their stakes in the company. However, the company has already clarified against the same. Not sure on movements after that.

      Delete
  17. sir can i buy control print at current price .please suggest

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know I have not been giving such explicit calls..
      But if you see in past 1 year, the company has appreciated a lot from levels around 50 to above 200 now, so technically it could show violent behavior depending on market conditions..
      However, I am still positive on the company for long term investment...

      Delete
  18. Dear Kunal as promised earlier kindly share your study/views on SKM Eggs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I did take a look but didn't find any big negatives, so it seems to be preferable...
      Just one thing, since the company has now started showing good profits, it should start paying dividends to shareholders as well, if it wants to keep growing among big investors....

      Overall, i feel at present, the positives are much above 1-2 minors negatives...

      Delete
  19. Ur view on IL&FS engineering and construction company Ltd?

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    Replies
    1. Not tracking the whole sector.. hence difficult to say..

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  20. DHP india corrected from 180 to 118, is it right time to enter and how is the future? I think it is undervalued share by EPS of 22 and PE of 5, ur view?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The last 2 quarter numbers might have been responsible for such a fall..
      In both the quarters, the company showed degrowth when compared to previous year..

      The company's past data is decent, but highly disappointed with numbers this year...

      Delete
  21. Kunal ur view on neo corp and opto circuits

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Positive on Neo Corp data but not quite on its business from markets perpective..
      Not sure if it would any day be given proper valuation..
      You can invest or hold if you have some risk potential..

      Not tracking Opto Circuits..

      Delete
  22. what is your view on Orient abresive

    ReplyDelete