Sunday, February 22, 2015

Q3 FY'15 Result Updates - Ricoh India, Gulshan Polyols, Dynemic Products, Plastiblends Ind, Control Print and Swiss Glascoat

I will be coming up with a discussion on new stock in next week mostly, as the study is not yet over.

1) Ricoh India:
Another fantastic set of numbers by the company, where they showed a very good growth on topline and more importantly, turnaround in profits. We had a good discussion about the numbers in comment section of last post especially by totalview.
It seems that failure of delisting proposal, proved to be a boon for investors like us, and it is likely to continue its performance, which is evident from some of the links shared below
Ricoh India to open 15 experience zones
See RICOH India’s profit margins at 15-20% over next five years: Manoj Kumar, EVP & CFO
HCL Learning Enters into a Strategic Partnership with Ricoh India
The stock has already turned into almost a 10 bagger since its first discussion on this blog. Because of heavy rally after the results, it may show some sideways movement but over period of time, it is still not a bad option.

2) Gulshan Polyols:
Once again, we have a company, where the results exceeded the expectations of many, and it was evident from the rise seen in stock price after results. The stock has risen almost 40% since the company came out with excellent results.
The company posted highest ever sales with a growth of 39%. On top of it, net profit rose by 64%.
As per press release, export of two turnkey Onsite PCC and WGCC projects to Bangladesh also contributed to PAT.
Company's Brand TIGER GOLD Whisky and Rum is being well accepted by the consumers in the state of M.P. Company has also registered another Brand GOLDEN DEER Whisky and Rum. It has plans to launch many brands in this segment to increase the volume,
Even at this appreciated price, the company is still trading at around P/E of 10 based on possible earnings for FY'15, which still leaves plenty of scope for them to grow in their market cap.

3) Dynemic Products:
Drop in export sales led to mild decline in sales yoy. which was highly unexpected from the company which has delivered pretty good growth so far. Such unexpected numbers led to a heavy drop in stock prices, and it proved to be a fact that the decline in price even before the results was on account of some informed investors/traders, who might have had a brief overview of coming results.
In an update later we saw that the Company has undertaken and completed the expansion project in Unit I for manufacturing Sodium Naphthionate and N.W. Acid which are also basic raw material for the Company's product. The commercial production of this expanded plant has been started.
The project might help company improve their margins further.
Somewhere, I always have a feeling that just 1 bad quarter, can't be conclusive of company's future. Let's wait for annual numbers coming next quarter, and then decide.

4) Plastiblends Ind:
Nothing so positive, nothing so negative about the numbers posted by the company. Absolutely flat sales as well as net profit. However, with company likely to post an EPS of more than 20 this year, the valuations are not quite expensive in my opinion.
On the positive side, Plastiblends India is investing $10m in a new factory in Gujarat.
The company have already procured the land and within a year the plant would commence production. The factory, in the city of Surat, would likely start with 30,000 metric tons of annual production, with the ability to expand to 100,000 metric tons, likely within five years.
Also, the company is targeting a fourth masterbatch production facility, in the eastern city of Kolkata. That facility will have a capacity of 15,000 metric tons a year.
Overall, I am still positive on the company.

5) Control Print:
I think lots of areas of discussion regarding Control Print has already been discussed in the original post as well as in comments section of various post.
So, just talking about numbers, it was another good performance by the company, where it showed the sales growth of 18% and net profit growth of 25%. It has kept on posting such growth consistently, and doing so going ahead, will certainly lead to further rise in stock price, in spite of tremendous run up in past 1 year.
Another positive from the company seen with the fact that company has paid an interm dividend, which means we can expect dividend twice this year. For such a small organization, this is certainly a good progress. Still positive on it.

6) Swiss Glascoat:
The discussion on the company has been recently initiated here, and unfortunately the first set of numbers after that has not been good. The company saw a decline in sales as well as profits, which is not good to see. However, as discussed in the post, there are lot many positives about the company, which forces me to wait for some more time, before taking any decision on change in position. Because of such poor set of numbers, the stock price has come down to levels when it was first discussed here after almost 40% rise. However, investors with some risk potential can certainly consider this company after looking at the overall data.

Happy Investing!!!

59 comments:

  1. Hi Kunal,

    If Ricoh really comes up with a 400 crores capex plan this as stated by CEO Manoj Kumar it will be really mind-boggling. As on 30th September 2014 Net Block is just around Rs.72 crores including work-in-progress of around Rs.7 crores. And to top it up by 400 crores !!!!! It seems they may create India as a manufacturing hub for Indian as well as export markets. And this will mitigate the risk of forex volatility also, only possible risk which Ricoh India faces intermittently. A turnover of Rs.2500 crores is not too much for the asking and within the realm of achievement. I will not be surprised if by next year it carries on a Rights Issue at a hefty premium and at around CMP similar to what was done by Hitachi Home. I see a Market Cap of Rs.2500 by the time 2015-16 results are declared by the Company at the minimum.

    totalview

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. market cap of Rs.2500? do you mean market price of Rs.2500 or market cap of Rs.2500 crore? separately, what are you smoking dude?

      Delete
    2. Ofcourse, he is talking about market cap of 2500 Cr... that's understood...
      Current market cap is just above 2000 Cr..

      Delete
    3. Wah Wah !!!! In just 7 working days Ricoh share price has doubled !!! Today again with decent volumes counter was locked at Upper Circuit of 10% !!!! My sense says that a substantial floating stock has been accumulated and cornered by HNIs and MFs/FIIs and I donot see any significant correction for the scrip !!!! It seems a story is developing on this counter and it's pedigree is like of Hitachi Home which even after good results was available at around 350-380 levels and without any further development it's now quoting in four figures !!!! Just sit very tight on holding and don't allow it to be traded else there are smart guys sitting who are with Arjuna's eyes to gobble any quantity. Look at the trading trends very distinctly any big quantity is being lapped up without price consideration.

      totalview

      Delete
  2. Gulshan Polyols and Ricoh India both I have already christened as "Lambi Race ka Ghoda" !!!! But Gulshan Polyols re-rating is underway and it may take some time, may be in parts. Long Term Investors might like to see one or two more quarters to watch the performance. Then stock investment is all about prospects and not a rear view driving !!!!! And one who anticipates and assesses well in advance reaps multi-baggers' profits and rest get normal profits. Not convinced? Just ask the guys who invested at 24 and 60 with Ricoh India and Gulshan Polyols respectively :-D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So Gulshan Polyols moved up very fast upto 325 levels but met with profit-taking at higher levels !!! Finally it closed around 300 levels !!! It will be interesting to watch whether it meets with a consolidation phase or starts it's onward journey after a brief half !!!!

      totalview

      Delete
  3. sir.

    LLOYD ELECTRIC is trading at very very cheap valuations compared to its competitors.
    Look at the following figures.

    Company Name PE

    Whirlpool 70.81
    Symphony 78
    Hitachi Home 390
    Blue Star 38
    IFB Industries 94.22
    Lloyd Electric 6.16

    what is your opinion sir, whether lloyd electric also will get rerated may not be those cray numbers as other companies at atleat a PE of 15 to 20 ?

    promoters are raising stake, brand builing is happening through advertisng (lloyd is world cup sponser). sale through flipkart and snapdeal.

    FII are buying stake, recently in jan 2015 orange mauritius bought 6% at Rs138 .
    sales increasing, foriegn subsideries also dooing good bussiness.

    will it get better valuations in future?

    Is it a good bet?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The valuations are extremely low, but somewhere, I feel that all companies of these promoters have always traded with low PE..
      There has to be something fishy about reputation of promoters... may be...
      When you talk about the likes of Symphony and Whirlpool, just take a look at their cash flow and debt levels once...
      Both are having almost zero debt and very good operating cash flow..
      With Lloyd, their Debt:Equity is almost 1, and their cash flow at operating level has been negative, which is not a good sign...

      These are just my views, not concluding to any action that can be taken by you..

      Delete
  4. SIR YOUR view on KSE PLZ SUGGEST ME

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dear Sir
    Your View about Archidly, Roto Pumb & Jagsonpal Pharma

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Declining growth in pharma industry is seriously a matter of concern, hence I would rather prefer something which is showing good growth and trading at cheaper valuations than Jagsonpal..
      Neutral on Roto Pumps, as it seems to be at a fair value now. Further growth in business will drive stock price ahead..
      Not deeply tracking Archidply..

      Delete
    2. can you suggest on of pharama or chemilcal industrie for long term

      Delete
    3. You can find stocks discussed here in the left hand side panel..
      There are plenty of stocks from both the sectors you mentioned...

      Delete
  6. sir, what is your view on Kalyani forging

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rest of the data looks good, but growth in past 3-4 years was a serious concern...
      However, sales growth this year has been good..
      One can keep it in radar, don't seems to be a strong enough candidate at present to me...

      Delete
  7. pls give your view on Ahmednager Forging.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Recently replied on Ahmednagar forging here:
      http://fundamentalstockideas.blogspot.com/2014/12/some-of-ignored-performance-ratios-by.html

      Please use search functionality in the right hand side panel to see if query is recently answered. If no, I will definitely answer here...

      Delete
  8. SSWL bags exports order for Renault Brazil
    Link: http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Steel_Strips_Wheels_Ltd_250215.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hello Kunalji,
    Thanks for the great service you are providing for us i.e financially uneducated investors.
    I'd like to know your opinion about Stampede Capital.
    They are into a novel segment and the prospect may be very good.
    However, not very sure about the fundamentals.
    Particularly, I'm not sure about the credentials of the promoters.
    Even if you do not track the stock, can you put some comments about their management and promoters?
    As usual, eagerly waiting for your expert opinion.
    Warm Regards,
    Dr. Bishan Basu

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The promoters of Stampede Capital are same as that of Northgate Technologies, which was once trading around 800 Rs and now less than a rupee...
      Just check the details about the company..
      With Stampede, it may be shooting up because of superstar AB entering the stock and some positive news related to their Singapore subsidiary, however, difficult to predict if that same thing would not happen again...
      I will put the stock in very risky category..

      Delete
    2. Just checked, the name of Northgate Tech was changed to Green Fire Agri Commodity...

      Delete
    3. Thanks a lot, Kunalji.
      Information like these are not easily available to us.
      And, for this very reason your job of enlightening the fellow investors is so commendable.
      I'll not invest in such companies, thanks to your information.
      Regards,
      Bishan Basu

      Delete
  10. Dear Krunal,
    I have gone though this green fire. from the company site I have not found anything negative. can you explain why its came down from 1200 to 0.53 rs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you are joking with me saying nothing is negative about the company... :)
      Just take a look at the financial data...

      Delete
  11. Hello,
    Do you know any reason why control print is going down?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I said earlier, the stock has jumped more than 4 times in past 1 year..
      To me, it seems to be a consolidation phase, as the fall in prices is not aided by heavy volumes...
      I am not aware of anything negative at this point....

      Delete
    2. Don't worry about control print. It has good business which as of now doesn't look under any threat. With the new plant coming functional, I am sure sales will increase and directly translate into earnings since no debt has been raised for expansion.

      Once this consolidation happens, I think get its due.

      Delete
  12. Dear Krunal,
    can you share your thoughts on Polyplex Corporation Ltd? I have been watching it from past 2 months. currently its trading near 185. can we enter in this from this price or wait for some more correction.
    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not tracking the stock deeply, and as such, didn't find it too attractive either on account of poor numbers this year...
      Expect for Jun, they have shown degrowth in sales for both the remaining quarters, which is not good...
      However, since I am not following the company, I might be right in judging the company based on 2 poor quarters..
      You can better ask someone who is deeply into the company, before taking any action..

      Delete
  13. Hi Kuna sirl,
    I am a investor in shree steel wire ropes ltd, As per me looking much attractive even unique in nature , doing very well on botterm line and top line too. Sir do you find any investment opportunities in it? thanks a lot

    with regards
    hashmat ali

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure about the scalability of their business...

      Delete
  14. Market cap of Ajanta Pharma has crossed 10000 Cr, which is great to see. In 2012, when we started discussing about the company, it was trading at a market cap below 1000 Cr...
    Just wondering how much more steam is left in the counter !!!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hey Kunal,
    Finally Granules board going to approve the record date for sub-division of shares of face value of Rs. 10/- each in to 10 equity shares of Rs. 1/- each.
    Do you see any impact on stock price and any fundamentals, if any? Is it good move? whats your take on this? M still holding few shares.
    -Mayur

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Impact on stock price may be temporary, but overall, I don't think it affects the fundamentals of the company...
      However, I didnt like the management decision to split, as I am not a fan of stocks with high liquidity..

      Delete
    2. yes, even i don't like stocks splitting so early, Anyways, just quick question - are you still positive on the counter? right?
      -Mayur

      Delete
  16. Gulshan Polyols signs MOU with OPIL, Birla Group
    Link: http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Gulshan_Polyols_Ltd_040315.pdf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On-Site PCC plants is going to be an excellent vertical for Gulshan Polyols. Consider that there are more than 300 paper plants in India and just six have been covered with Onsite PCC plants. This facility offers unmatched benefits like quality, availability and economy of scale which slowly paper mills are coming to learn. ITC, Birla Group have already gone for it and in the ensuing periods many more will follow. And Gulshan Polyols are pioneer in this concept.

      totalview

      Delete
  17. hi Kunal, do you have any views on Richa Industries from buy perspective?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Had it in radar earlier, but results after FY'12 has not been good, which has taken away my interest from the company. The debt levels is very high and is not coming down since past 2-3 years..
      I am not finding it too attractive from fundamentals perspective at present...

      Delete
  18. hi kunal

    what is your view on SELAN, SUVEN LIFE, GMM PFAUDLER and GUJARAT AUTOMOTIVE GEARS


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Suven Life Sciences already discussed stock on this blog since it was trading around 24 Rs. Neutral at CMP..
      Please check left hand side widget for all stocks discussed here..

      Positive on GMM Pfaudler, but like Swiss Glascoat more in the same industry, on account on lower valuations there..

      Not tracking other 2..

      Delete
    2. thanks for the prompt reply kunal

      view on THOMAS COOK, TCI and GODREJ PROPERTIES

      Delete
    3. Positive on Thomas Cook for long term.
      Not tracking TCI and Godrej Properties..

      Delete
  19. Hi, ur view on NGL Fine - Chem Ltd. and V2 Retail?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. V2 Retail is one of the better turnaround companies..
      Not tracking NGL..

      Delete
  20. Sir, for dynemic products, promotor's stake also decreased from 42 to 37%, is it worth buying for the fresh entry?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Results were not at all good this quarter..
      If you are looking for fresh entry, you can better wait for annual numbers, before entering if you like to be a safe player...
      If already holding, one can continue to do so for some more time...

      Delete
    2. My apprehension that some corporate governance issues are there :( !!!! I may be wrong.

      totalview

      Delete
  21. Hello Kunal,
    Hope you are doing great. We are eagerly waiting for next stock. Hope it is coming soon :-)

    Best regards,
    Jaskirat

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi Kunalji,

    I'd like to know your opinion about Agro Tech Food Ltd (ATFL).

    The company is a MNC subsidiary. The parent Con Agro is one of the largest companies in food business throughout the world.

    They have nice products like Sundrop sunflower oil, Act II popcorn etc., which are market leaders in their segment. The parent MNC have great products in their portfolio, which are yet to be launched in India.

    What do you think about their potential? Is the stock worth buying as long term investment?

    Regards,
    Dr. Bishan Basu

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The company has not been show growth over the years..
      Also, the valuations are already stretched, with company trading around P/E ratio of 45..

      If you are sure about their upcoming products and their better performance, you can consider it. Otherwise the current product portfolio is very decent, but unable to show good growth yoy..

      Delete
  23. Hi Sir . I would like to know your view on Godavari Drugs ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking Godavari Drugs..

      We already have many pharma stocks getting discussed on this blog, and almost all of them are still well placed, hence not tracking many other pharma companies apart from these...

      Delete
  24. Ajanta Pharma Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has fixed Record Date as March 23, 2015 for the purpose of sub-division of equity shares from face-value of Rs. 5/- each to face-value of Rs. 2/- each.

    Granules India Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on March 07, 2015 has fixed the Record date as March 24, 2015 for the purpose of sub-division of each equity share of the face value of Rs. 10/- into 10(ten) equity shares of face value of Rs. 1/- each fully paid up.

    ReplyDelete
  25. hi kunal

    which is better, dynemic products or vidhi dyestuff

    when is your next pick?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Presented my views on Dynemic recently..
    Not tracking Vidhi, hence can't compare both..

    ReplyDelete