Saturday, February 8, 2014

Dhanuka Agritech - Q3 Result Updates

Financial Results & Limited Review for Dec 31, 2013
Link: Click Here

Board declares Interim Dividend:
Dhanuka Agritech Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on February 06, 2014 inter alia, has declared Interim Dividend @100% (Rs. 2 per Equity Share having Face Value of Rs. 2/- each) for the Financial Year 2013-14. The payment date of the Interim Dividend shall be on or before March 07, 2014.

Dhanuka to invest Rs 50cr on new plant; eyes Rs 750cr revenue: (For those who missed the news earlier)
Link: Click Here

Decent numbers given by Dhanuka Agritech in terms of sales, and a very good net profit to go with that.
Revenues stood at 167 Cr Vs 139.6 Cr YoY, a growth of 20%
Net Profit stood at 21.27 Cr Vs 11.68 Cr YoY, a growth of 82%, which was higher than expected.
Hence, EPS stood at 4.25 Vs 2.34 YoY.

For the nine months so far,
Revenues stands at 586.52 Cr Vs 451.13 Cr YoY, a growth of 30%.
Net Profit stands at 70.67 Cr Vs 46.57 Cr YoY, a growth of 51.75%.
EPS for the nine months stands at 14.13 Vs 9.31.

In the link above, as they mentioned, it seems they will be able to achieve 750 Cr revenues this fiscal. Sales of somewhere close to 165 Cr, would help them achieve the figure of 750 Cr for FY14, which doesn't look difficult as of now. To do so, they will have post a growth of 24% in sales, for the next quarter.
The net profit growth this fiscal has been remarkable, and it purely justifies the high P/E ratio for the company, when compared with its peers.

The PAT margin was seen at 12.75 this quarter. With company continuously posting a better growth in net profit than revenues, the margins will continue to impress, and it seems, they should be able to achieve PAT margins of at least 12.5% for FY14, whereas it was close to 11% last year. Once they gain more and more popularity among farmers, it won't be difficult for them to post PAT margins in the range of 15-20%, in future, as they will save plenty required in brand building.

According to company's Managing Director M K Dhanuka: "During this quarter, despite the weak economic environment, we have achieved superior sales growth. Our new products have been enthusiastically received by farmers and continue to gain market share. South and West zones are our key markets and have done well. We are happy that our branding initiatives, including advertisements featuring Amitabh Bachchan as Brand Ambassador have helped us achieve this sustainable growth and we are confident of achieving even better growth in future."

My Views:
Going by the numbers, one would feel that 20% growth in sales, is not that great, but understanding the nature of business they are in, its very difficult to achieve such growth also, in off-season. Still, they have plenty of scope to improve, and their brand building expense, will help them achieve further growth. Good dividend is being paid by the company twice a year, which will bring more stability to stock price.
I personally feel, that, in off-season quarters, people will find plenty of opportunities to enter the stock, as the interest among the traders and investors would be lesser in these quarters. Hence some dips in between are inevitable.
Recommending a hold for those who are already invested, and suggesting a buy on dips strategy for those who are looking for new entry. But always make sure to study things yourself, before taking such decisions. :-)

17 comments:

  1. Good set of numbers by Dhanuka Agritech !!! However, would be a buyer below 150 only !!!

    Gulshan Polyols third quarter numbers are out !!! Top line has gone up by around 25% but margins are under pressure :( !!! However, shall wait for your detailed comments :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Of course, I will do that..
    But, the sad part is that, there is a very little clarity of things in progress from management.
    I have never seen them post anything informative in notes section of any of their quarter result document... That's quite disappointing...

    ReplyDelete
  3. I do agree that on information front they have been poor. However, on the website they have provided some information on future projects e.g.Indus Spirits projects at Chhindwara(MP)( which was stuck up because of State Govt's approval(Land allotted in 2007 and again in March 2012 Total approx 15 acres, Projected Capital Cost Rs.78 crores). Corn based project at Bhagalpur(Bihar) where they have been allotted 100 Acres land by BIADA but project is held up as farmers have agitated on compensation price. Besides, they have implemented expansion plan at Jhagadia(Bharuch, Gujarat) where strict pollution norms have been in operation. If you go through 30th September 2013 Balance Sheet you will find a sum of around 35 crores as "Capital Work in Progress".

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hello kunal,
    Whats your view on wockhardt after q3 results.
    Any comment regarding USFDA issue timeline is not given by mngt.
    Are the mngment people dishonest?
    I am planning to make fresh entry.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  5. Vivek,

    Wockhardt along with Ranbaxy, seems to be two of the most controversial pharma stocks...
    I generally tend to avoid investments in such high risk stocks...
    The decline in revenues and net profit this quarter was mainly because of US FDA ban on 1 of their high revenue generating plants last year at Waluj and on 27 November, the second factory at Chikalthana was also banned by the US drug regulator, affecting the sale of five drugs in the US market.

    Few good points are
    1) Their R&D expense is going up...
    2) Revenue fell 30 percent in the US, but grew 25 percent in Ireland, rose 10 percent in the UK and increased 6 percent in India.
    3) Undervalued if banned plants gets US FDA nod up in future.

    The company is trying to resolve these issues, but it should take about a year's time to do so....
    If you are buying then, make sure that you don't buy in bulk, instead, buy in parts, and use every dip to average out. If things do get resolved, you might well see stock trading in 4 digits again....

    But again, a very risky investment...

    I would say, there are other better bets available in pharma sector, in terms of safety of investment. I am not tracking this stock deeply, hence advising to consult someone deeply into it before taking any decision...
    All the best!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thank you for your guidance !

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nirmal Bang comes out with a buy call on Dhanuka Agritech with a target of 236
    LInk:
    http://www.indianotes.com/uploads/article_pdf/2014/Nirmal%20Bang_Dhanuka%20Agritech_10Feb14.pdf

    Key Highlights:

    - Sales growth of 20% led by 14% volume and 6% improvement in realisations.

    - Company’s Keshwana facility is expected to be operational by Q4FY15 (delayed by a quarter). Sales potential from the facility is Rs500 cr (10x of capex of Rs50 cr)

    - Ongoing work at Keshwana facility restricted the company to reduce the working capital which resulted in higher interest cost during the quarter. However, Nirmal Bang expect it to normalize going forward.

    - The company has launched two more products in Q3FY14 and one product in Jan’14 taking the total launches to five in year-to-date (out of which four are specialty products, having better margins). It still has 6 products (9-(3) exclusive) in pipeline which are novel products and the company is expected to launch two per year. Dhanuka was intending to launch at least one more product in FY14 however it was postponed due to approval delay from regulatory body. Management seems confident of getting approval for the product in Q4FY14.

    - On back of good monsoon and continuation of high MSPs by government, management seems confident of strong next season also (only limiting factor is next year rains).

    - Encouraging factor was reassurance by management to maintain M9FY14 margins of 16% for full year and for next year

    ReplyDelete
  8. We have some updates from Ajanta Pharma, regarding the 2 upcoming plants in Gujarat.
    One of them is in Dahej, which will be commercialized in Q1 FY15, which is about a quarter away from now...
    The second one at Savli is expected to be completed by Q4 FY15...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Excellent numbers declared by Camlin Fine Sciences...
    The share is definitely worth a look...
    In Q3, revenues grew by close to 20%, and net profit was up by more than 100%, 122% to be precise...
    Plus they are planning to set up a wholly owned subsidiary in Canada...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Few Updates From Ricoh India:

    Financial Results & Limited Review for Dec 31, 2013
    Link:
    Click Here

    Revenues were up by 66% to stand at 226.79 Cr Vs 136.4 Cr YoY.
    Net loss stands at 0.2 Cr Vs 26 Cr YoY.

    Good set of numbers by the company, but seems like it might be sligthly manipulated just to keep the price in check, and not allow it to go above 150 Rs or so. Just a doubt. No proofs to prove my point right.
    The prime reason for the loss as suggested by the management was exchange fluctuations loss, which was close to 39 Cr, which was expected.

    For the nine months ended 31st Dec, the company has made a total sales of 700 Cr, and if you see the history, the March quarters have been more rewarding than others in terms of top line and bottom line. So one can expect the company to post revenues of more than 300 Cr atleast in Mar 14, which will make management achieve their goal of 1000 Cr revenues in FY 14.
    It will report a CAGR of almost 50% for past 3 years, if it is able to do so, which is great achievement by the company.

    Some more interesting links suggesting further growth of the company:

    Ricoh India launches 360° experience to enhance office productivity
    Link:
    Click Here

    Ricoh predicts boom in digital print
    Link:
    Click Here

    My Views:
    Again, I would repeat my words, saying that, results will hardly have a turn around impact on the company as far as share price is concerned. What investors would be waiting for is the commencement of Reverse Book Building process from management.
    So far, I don't have any updates on that. But it should start within a month from now.
    Wait and watch till then!!!! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Still awaiting words from Gulshan Polyols management, on few queries.
    Will post the details once I have it....

    ReplyDelete
  12. Fair set of numers from Cera Sanitaryware with top line growing 25% YoY.
    Bottom line has once again taken a hit because of higher input and may be higher marketing expense.
    It may be slight downside because of flat net profit numbers, but one can utilize such dips to buy more...

    I, finally have the answers from Gulshan Polyols management. Hence will try to post the details tonight...

    ReplyDelete
  13. What do you expect the final exit price of Ricoh India !!!! Right now quoting around 138 !!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hahaha.... that's a million dollar question...
    I am a bit cautious because of the fact that I have seen many companies cancelling their delisting plans if the stock price goes way above the Indicative price....
    Most of investors are aware of this fact, and hence they have not allowed the share price to go above 145 levels...
    I feel that 150 won't be a bad price to quit and play safe, if you have made investment around 50, where the stock was trading before delisting plans....

    Those with brave hearts may smell the exit price of 160-180... Thats what I believe...

    Frankly speaking, I have already exited the stock around 142.
    The reason was based on my observations over past 2 months, which is that the investors or traders in Ricoh are not at all interested to see the numbers declared by the company, nor are they interested by the launch of any good products from the company... Each one is just interested in speculating the management decision of RBB process, and earn quick money....
    That's disappointing to see, and hence my decision... :-)

    Had the company been in stock markets for longer, without such delisting plans, I would have certainly been there as a long term investor....

    ReplyDelete
  15. Gulshan Polyols - Q3 Result Updates

    Financial Results & Limited Review for Dec 31, 2013
    Link:
    http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/Gulshan_Polyols_Ltd_070214_Rst.pdf

    Revenues stood at 82.6 Cr Vs 66 Cr YoY, a growth of 25%.
    Net Profit stood at 5.36 Cr Vs 6.52 Cr YoY, a decline of 18%.

    Few question were asked to the management and this is what they replied...

    Q1. I heard that Indus Spirits projects at Chhindwara was stuck up because of State Government approval. I read earlier that the operations are expected to commence in FY12-13, but didn't get any updates on it later. Could you please let me know what is the status on it, and are things on track for that plant?
    Reply: Bottling operation is expected to commence soon as we are waiting for the Excise approvals.

    Q2. I heard about Corn based project at Bhagalpur, where company have been allotted 100 Acres land. Any updates on that?
    Reply: State Govt. couldn’t give physical possession of land to the company that’s why we have now surrendered the land to the allotted authority.

    Q3. Do we have any updates on Jhagadia plant in Bharuch?
    Reply: Corn grinding capacity has been increased and expansion of Sorbitol capacity is under process in that plant.

    Q4. Looking at the Q3 numbers, one can see that sales growth is good, close to about 25%, but why are margins under pressure?
    Reply: Because input cost is higher

    Q5. How do you see sales growth going forward, with company continuously expanding itself with new facilities?
    Reply: Yes, In FY 2014-15, we are expecting 15% growth in top line.

    My Views:
    I understand the growth demonstrated by the company is not that great, especially in terms of profit, but the scope is plenty, because even in the existing scenario, with such top line and bottom line numbers, I feel the company is way under-valued at present.
    We have seen many times in the past, that each company needs one strong trigger to get the re-rating on the stock, where I feel, Gulshan has failed, and hence we are continuously seeing it trade in the range of 70-80.
    With the company's projection of growing by 15% or so in FY15, I don't think that strong re-rating is happening sooner, unless we have some margin improvements.
    But as an investors, I don't think there is much to worry about, with company growing at a steady pace and paying very good dividend, atleast for now.
    Finally the price is not in our hand.
    All the best!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Emkay is out with their report on Dhanuka Agrictech, and they raise their target price to 256 Rs..
    Link:
    http://emkayglobal.com/Uploads/EmkayResearch/Dhanuka%20Agritech%20Q3FY14%20Result%20Update.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  17. Suven Life Sci - Suven Life secures (2) Product Patents for their NCEs in New Zealand
    Link:
    http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Suven_Life_Sciences_Ltd_140214.pdf

    ReplyDelete